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PL/NL Texas Hold'em >> Micro Stakes

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bozlax
Just a big [censored] softie at heart

Reged: 12/29/04
Posts: 8848
Loc: Wookie is right
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: matrix]
#7855360 - 10/30/06 12:08 PM

Quote:

...nit picking at semantics...

What semantics? I'm not even concerned about the fact that each of you puts in 4BB preflop, so when you make your play on the flop you're not looking at 100BB but 96BB (that WOULD be nit-picky).

In your hypothetical, you know that Vill...

Oh, wait, I see now. You're talking about the equity race once all the money is in, which is the same as EV since all the money is in. But you're using that to support a discussion about making +EV "plays", while in your hypothetical you've already made your play. So, it would be better to say that your read of Vill is that he'd only make this sort of play with KK/QQ/JJ/TT (with AA or a set he'd play the flop differently) so you "know" you're a 92:8 favorite (actually 91:9, since his range has more cards that'll make his set) making the EV of a call:

EV = (.91)(96) + (.09)(-96) = 78.72

Right?

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ama0330
more whining, less poker

Reged: 04/20/06
Posts: 5704
Loc: Crushing
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: bozlax]
#7855557 - 10/30/06 12:26 PM

*Bookmarked*

nh

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RunyonAve
saving BBV one lesbian at a time

Reged: 02/18/05
Posts: 3338
Loc: watching dids edit my posts
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: ama0330]
#7856074 - 10/30/06 01:07 PM

Great Post.

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kaz2107
Jumpman HOLLA!

Reged: 07/26/05
Posts: 2943
Loc: Hating CO pro sports atm
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: matrix]
#7856196 - 10/30/06 01:16 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Total net win of 168BB/hand.

This play is +EV and has an EV of 168BB *every* time you make it.

Two out of three of these statements are wrong. Do You See Why? Hint #1: this play is +EV. Hint #2:

Quote:

Villain(100BB) calls from the BB and both see a HU flop...

it'd be so much better if you just point out what statements are wrong and then I can correct them/you as appropriate

in my simple example numbers aren't exact, and re-reading it now I could/should have written it better to stop people nit picking at semantics...

yea stop tha hatin... np

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_PokerStudent_
stranger

Reged: 10/18/06
Posts: 6
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: RunyonAve]
#7856268 - 10/30/06 01:23 PM

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kidpokeher
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 04/14/06
Posts: 2115
Loc: value shoving
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: ama0330]
#7856718 - 10/30/06 01:57 PM

Quote:

*Bookmarked*

nh

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matrix
there is NO spoon

Reged: 09/04/05
Posts: 7050
Loc: UK
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: bozlax]
#7857563 - 10/30/06 03:02 PM

Quote:

In your hypothetical, you know that Vill...

Oh, wait, I see now. You're talking about the equity race once all the money is in, which is the same as EV since all the money is in.

Bingo - I have edited my OP (via the help of 42it - thanks ) the idea is simply demonstrate EV simply in a known hand example before throwing up an example where we use a range of hands and things get a little more complicated.

thanks for pointing out the errors - and the 2 people who spotted that in example #2 my board was mistyped in pokerstove which kind of skewed the results (but only by 58BB or so )

I have proofread several times now and think I got it right this time.

I hope this makes things a little clearer now.

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ajmargarine
old school

Reged: 06/11/05
Posts: 12050
Loc: one decision
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: matrix]
#7857671 - 10/30/06 03:12 PM

nice post sir.

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bozlax
Just a big [censored] softie at heart

Reged: 12/29/04
Posts: 8848
Loc: Wookie is right
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: matrix]
#7858252 - 10/30/06 04:00 PM

Quote:

I hope this makes things a little clearer now.

My concern still exists: if you're talking about the EV of calling his all-in, even if you specifically know his hand, you don't include the money you're putting into the pot in your calculations. If you're talking about the equity race AFTER you've made the call, you include the full pot.

To put it another way (and this is why I included a hint in my first reply) neither your net win nor your EV for a given hand can be bigger than the amount of money put into the pot by players other than yourself.

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EMc
The People's Mod

Reged: 02/24/05
Posts: 7663
Loc: LETS GO YANKEES!!
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value- [Re: ama0330]
#7858290 - 10/30/06 04:02 PM

Quote:

*Bookmarked*

nh

Stickied

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