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General Poker Discussion >> Poker Legislation

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Gugel
old hand


Reged: 04/11/05
Posts: 1029
Loc: Charlottesville, VA
Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats
      #7517812 - 10/02/06 09:23 PM

Inspired by woodguy & Ron Burgundy in this thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...part=1&vc=1

Anyway, this is the argument.
1. Harrah's Entertainment was the 13th largest contributer to Frist's 2000 Senate campaign.
http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00003147&cycle=2000
2. It approaches the senator with a deal that seems to be a win-win-win situation. Frist wins, the casinos win, and the U.S. wins.
2a. Frist wins by displaying his morality for future presidential campaigns to the U.S. public by banning online "gambling". After a period of "consideration" another senator that in cahoots with the casino decides to try to legalize, but place tight control on online poker. Frist "opposes" the bill on the surface, but doesn't put up much of a fight. It passes.
2b. Casinos start up their own versions of online poker. American casinos quickly gobble up the U.S. market.
2c. The U.S. government gets hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue.
Win-win-win.

Discuss.

( The U.S. gambling industry in general donates a large chunk of change to politicians...
http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.asp?Ind=N07 )


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Vern
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/08/04
Posts: 2185
Loc: Trying to understand SSHE
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7517865 - 10/02/06 09:26 PM

Tin is old, use Aluminum.

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Klompy
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 04/11/04
Posts: 6236
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7517898 - 10/02/06 09:30 PM

Even if this were true, I don't have the money, or the patience to wait for that to actualy happen.

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cmattos
newbie


Reged: 08/19/05
Posts: 41
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7517902 - 10/02/06 09:30 PM

Quote:

2b. Casinos start up their own versions of online poker. American casinos quickly gobble up the U.S. market.
2c. The U.S. government gets hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue.





I would think most online poker players (especially now) would be happy to see the above take place.


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Semtex
veteran


Reged: 09/28/06
Posts: 1539
Loc: LA
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7517922 - 10/02/06 09:31 PM

You know maybe this is why Party has made the "nonsensical" move to stop their US business and concentrate on Europe. Perhaps they are anticipating that they will have no chance to compete when the US casinos take over the whole operation.

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viper930
banned


Reged: 12/18/05
Posts: 1554
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Semtex]
      #7517956 - 10/02/06 09:34 PM

lol @ this

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DING-DONG YO
Teh mfing DANG-dong


Reged: 02/23/06
Posts: 8122
Loc: ninja modng, bitches, u need 2...
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Semtex]
      #7517998 - 10/02/06 09:37 PM

Quote:

You know maybe this is why Party has made the "nonsensical" move to stop their US business and concentrate on Europe. Perhaps they are anticipating that they will have no chance to compete when the US casinos take over the whole operation.




Or they want to maintain good relations with the US in the event re-entry into this market becomes a possibility.

Nice theory. I don't think it is very far-fetched, actually.


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kb09pkt
enthusiast


Reged: 06/14/06
Posts: 306
Loc: Bye for now!!
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Vern]
      #7518020 - 10/02/06 09:38 PM

I have to admit that idea has crossed my mind. From the government standpoint, they stand to reap in billions in tax revenue. What has happened today sucks, there is no doubt about it. My point of view is that this will turn out like prohibition did, it will be overturned, and when it does, I would rather play on a site regulated by the U.S. then a foreign site. I compare it to playing at an Indian Casino and a regular casino. I prefer the regular casinos because I know they are paying taxes to the government whereas the Indians are not. (I'm not tryin to stir up a debate on how Indians earned the right b/c of years of abuse) and that is why I would prefer to play at a U.S. regulated site that I know will pay taxes to the U.S. I wish it wouldn't come at the cost of a temporary ban like it appears to be, but once the smoke clears, I do beleive U.S. based online casinos will emerge.

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viper930
banned


Reged: 12/18/05
Posts: 1554
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DING-DONG YO]
      #7518041 - 10/02/06 09:40 PM

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory


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NSolo
stranger


Reged: 04/08/05
Posts: 3
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: kb09pkt]
      #7518052 - 10/02/06 09:41 PM

There is no doubt that US casinos made substantial contributions to Frist and this is the payback. I haven't the slightest idea what their long-term strategy is.

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cmattos
newbie


Reged: 08/19/05
Posts: 41
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7518064 - 10/02/06 09:42 PM

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this.




When in doubt, follow the money. Who stands the gain the most by the IG ban?


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Copernicus
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 06/13/03
Posts: 6912
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: kb09pkt]
      #7518072 - 10/02/06 09:42 PM

Quote:

I have to admit that idea has crossed my mind. From the government standpoint, they stand to reap in billions in tax revenue. What has happened today sucks, there is no doubt about it. My point of view is that this will turn out like prohibition did, it will be overturned, and when it does, I would rather play on a site regulated by the U.S. then a foreign site. I compare it to playing at an Indian Casino and a regular casino. I prefer the regular casinos because I know they are paying taxes to the government whereas the Indians are not. (I'm not tryin to stir up a debate on how Indians earned the right b/c of years of abuse) and that is why I would prefer to play at a U.S. regulated site that I know will pay taxes to the U.S. I wish it wouldn't come at the cost of a temporary ban like it appears to be, but once the smoke clears, I do beleive U.S. based online casinos will emerge.





lets not overstate things. Party's net income before taxes is less than 500 million, and they are the biggest. You arent coming close to a billion in tax revenues for the total us market, even if us companies captured all of it


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malo
journeywoman


Reged: 04/03/05
Posts: 349
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7518079 - 10/02/06 09:42 PM

At the very least, I would deduce the sumbitch Frist is a hypocrite for using gambling money to help finance his campaign.

And I don't really trust Harrah's (did they ever figure out where all those extra chips came from in the ME?), so nothing they might try would really surprise me.....


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viper930
banned


Reged: 12/18/05
Posts: 1554
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7518084 - 10/02/06 09:43 PM

NOT THE B&M's. Get it through your heads that a drastic decrease in online poker GREATLY HURTS b&m casinos. It doesn't help them like so many of you 2post nimwits seem to think.

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Jeremy517
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 07/11/04
Posts: 3083
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7518097 - 10/02/06 09:44 PM

Quote:

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this.




When in doubt, follow the money. Who stands the gain the most by the IG ban?




Not B&M casinos.

If you watched CSPAN, guess where the two representatives that spoke out against the ban were from... Las Vegas.


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Copernicus
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 06/13/03
Posts: 6912
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7518099 - 10/02/06 09:44 PM

you left out the last "win"...we do.

youve got a better case that it was Abramhoff and his indian casino friends that got this done than Harrahs.


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cmattos
newbie


Reged: 08/19/05
Posts: 41
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7518110 - 10/02/06 09:45 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I have to admit that idea has crossed my mind. From the government standpoint, they stand to reap in billions in tax revenue. What has happened today sucks, there is no doubt about it. My point of view is that this will turn out like prohibition did, it will be overturned, and when it does, I would rather play on a site regulated by the U.S. then a foreign site. I compare it to playing at an Indian Casino and a regular casino. I prefer the regular casinos because I know they are paying taxes to the government whereas the Indians are not. (I'm not tryin to stir up a debate on how Indians earned the right b/c of years of abuse) and that is why I would prefer to play at a U.S. regulated site that I know will pay taxes to the U.S. I wish it wouldn't come at the cost of a temporary ban like it appears to be, but once the smoke clears, I do beleive U.S. based online casinos will emerge.





lets not overstate things. Party's net income before taxes is less than 500 million, and they are the biggest. You arent coming close to a billion in tax revenues for the total us market, even if us companies captured all of it




But how many more people would become involved in IG if they could trust the site they were sending their money to? For someone new to the IG world, I would think they would be far more apt to sign-up with Harrahs.com before they even looked at Party.com or 888.com.


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viper930
banned


Reged: 12/18/05
Posts: 1554
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7518121 - 10/02/06 09:45 PM

yes it was those red mothaffuckas

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Gugel
old hand


Reged: 04/11/05
Posts: 1029
Loc: Charlottesville, VA
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7518141 - 10/02/06 09:47 PM

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




This doesn't make sense. Players might think, hey, I can't play online now...I guess I might as well go to Vegas/Atlantic City/Indian casino. Even if that's NOT the case, the long-term benefits of dominating the U.S. online poker market would outweigh the short-term losses for casinos.


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Jeremy517
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 07/11/04
Posts: 3083
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7518153 - 10/02/06 09:48 PM

Quote:

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




This doesn't make sense. Players might think, hey, I can't play online now...I guess I might as well go to Vegas/Atlantic City/Indian casino. Even if that's NOT the case, the long-term benefits of dominating the U.S. online poker market would outweigh the short-term losses for casinos.




Again, if you watched CSPAN, guess where the two representatives that spoke out against the ban were from... Las Vegas. You really think they'd speak out against it if it went against casino wishes?


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DVaut1
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 11/22/04
Posts: 4751
Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DING-DONG YO]
      #7518154 - 10/02/06 09:48 PM

Quote:

I don't think it is very far-fetched, actually.




I do.

I'd love for this conspiracy to be true, but it seems like the conspirators went to an awful lot of trouble to achieve something they could have accomplished with much less effort and gotten done much sooner. If Harrah's or some other American gaming corp wants online gaming legalized, why not just go through the typical lobbying channels? If Harrah's, Caesars Ent., MGM et al want Frist or some other Senators do something for them, they typically just cut a bigger check and send it directly to their campaign coffers, or threaten to fund their opponents -- not engage in long, drawn-out legislative shenanigans that would invariably cost them lots of money if this was their 'real' motive.

Party made something like $850 million dollars in revenue last year. I suspect a legitimate American company with huge brand awareness and endless resources like Harrah's or MGM could make two or three times that if given the opportunity. You think they're going to spend a year or two orchestrating this kind of conspiracy when they could be making all that revenue right now? If the answer is "but they want to gain market share" -- that seems pretty silly. Party/Stars/888.com couldn't hope to compete with the B&M behemoths and their aura of legitimacy/infinite advertising resources/huge brand awareness.


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LucidDream
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/19/06
Posts: 2012
Loc: watching my winrate decline
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7518158 - 10/02/06 09:49 PM

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




Your theory makes no sense. If online poker is banned people will be forced to play in casinos. On top of that, just like poker players, casinos think in terms of long term profit. This move would be much better for their bottom line than letting all the business go to companies like Party, Stars, FTP, etc... I really don't understand how online poker helps B&M casinos, online poker is what keeps me at home instead of in a B&M casino.


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kb09pkt
enthusiast


Reged: 06/14/06
Posts: 306
Loc: Bye for now!!
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7518160 - 10/02/06 09:49 PM

I didn't mean to immply billions a year, but billions over the long run. I do also agree that this will hurt the B&M's with less people deciding to play live. I played live poker long before the internet poker and WPT boom occurred, and the influx of new players coming in to play live in undeniable. Internet Poker and the WPT were the best thing that ever happened to the B&M's.

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Jeremy517
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 07/11/04
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518190 - 10/02/06 09:51 PM

Quote:

Your theory makes no sense. If online poker is banned people will be forced to play in casinos. On top of that, just like poker players, casinos think in terms of long term profit. This move would be much better for their bottom line than letting all the business go to companies like Party, Stars, FTP, etc... I really don't understand how online poker helps B&M casinos, online poker is what keeps me at home instead of in a B&M casino.




The 2002 main event had 600+ entries. The 2006 main event had 8800+ entries. Online sites have sent hundreds of thousands of entrants to tournaments around the world. Casino cash games are far more plentiful than they were in the recent past. B&M casinos realized that it is in their best interest for people to continue to be able to gamble online.


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viper930
banned


Reged: 12/18/05
Posts: 1554
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7518193 - 10/02/06 09:51 PM

Quote:


This makes perfect sense. Even if the players DID figure, why not go to Vegas now that online poker is gone, it would be a very SHORT TERM boost in B&M revenue. Over the long term, it would cause a very negative impact to the popularity of the game and the number of players frequenting the b&m cardrooms.




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Gugel
old hand


Reged: 04/11/05
Posts: 1029
Loc: Charlottesville, VA
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7518235 - 10/02/06 09:54 PM

Quote:

B&M casinos realized that it is in their best interest for people to continue to be able to gamble online under the B&M casino's own terms.




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DING-DONG YO
Teh mfing DANG-dong


Reged: 02/23/06
Posts: 8122
Loc: ninja modng, bitches, u need 2...
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7518246 - 10/02/06 09:55 PM

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




wow, well glad you know everything.

I think it is extremely possible.

If the US casinos were to open online tomorrow and have to compete fully with already established internationally based online casinos, the US casinos would be on a level playing field, and who wants that?

Under the theory above, this puts US casinos in a perfect position. Wait 2-3 years until people largely forget about the current sites. Then legalize/regulate/tax and US casinos get a jump start on the market. They could corner it in this scenario.

If you want to disagree, fine. But go stick smug little
Quote:

/theory


comments you know where. Did you ever even visit this forum (legislation) before Friday?

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Copernicus
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 06/13/03
Posts: 6912
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518248 - 10/02/06 09:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




Your theory makes no sense. If online poker is banned people will be forced to play in casinos. On top of that, just like poker players, casinos think in terms of long term profit. This move would be much better for their bottom line than letting all the business go to companies like Party, Stars, FTP, etc... I really don't understand how online poker helps B&M casinos, online poker is what keeps me at home instead of in a B&M casino.




Have you ever been to Vegas? Do you know how many cardrooms have opened or expanded thanks to online poker? Do you know how much those players spend at other games, in restaurants, on rooms?

Online poker has made a freaking fortune for the B&Ms


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LucidDream
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 09/19/06
Posts: 2012
Loc: watching my winrate decline
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7518249 - 10/02/06 09:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:


This makes perfect sense. Even if the players DID figure, why not go to Vegas now that online poker is gone, it would be a very SHORT TERM boost in B&M revenue. Over the long term, it would cause a very negative impact to the popularity of the game and the number of players frequenting the b&m cardrooms.







You still aren't looking at the big picture. You are talking about online poker and I am talking about online gambling.

Do you think if you could gamble on the site bellagio.com they wouldn't offer online craps, slots, blackjack, horseracing, sportsbetting, and everything else. They would make infinite on house games.

Online poker is peanuts compared to all this.


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DVaut1
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 11/22/04
Posts: 4751
Loc: Ann Arbor, MI
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DING-DONG YO]
      #7518286 - 10/02/06 09:58 PM

Quote:

If the US casinos were to open online tomorrow and have to compete fully with already established internationally based online casinos, the US casinos would be on a level playing field, and who wants that?




MGM opens bellagio.com tomorrow, or Harrah's opens "WSOP.com" just for online poker, or Caesars opens "Luxor.com" -- and they're on a 'level playing field' with 888, PartyGaming and Mansion.com?

The existing sites would be dwarfed by the legitimate and known B&M sites, almost instantly.

Half of my buddies, who know I make money playing on line and have won satellites to varios B&M events -- many of them continue to believe Party et al 'juices' the flops, uses prop players and rigs the deck for them, etc. Think of the inherent advantage the legitimate gaming corporations would have if the state sponsored and regulated their online casinos and poker rooms. I'm surprised it's even up for debate -- if online gaming were legalized in the US, the B&M mega corps would instantly dominate the US market.


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John21
old hand


Reged: 06/28/06
Posts: 1097
Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7518300 - 10/02/06 09:59 PM

Quote:

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this.




When in doubt, follow the money. Who stands the gain the most by the IG ban?




My ex-wife is a poker room manager. 5 years ago they had 4 tables and yearly revenue around $300k. Last year they were up to 8 tables and revenue over $1.2m.
The clientele has changed from middle aged men and weekend tourists to the 20 something ballcap & sunglasses crowd.
The upper-management in casinos knows this all came about through the internet and tv coverage, and I can't see how they would want it to slow down.

Yes, you could make the argument that US based casinos are trying to corner the market, but they would have probably gone about this through regulation, not banning.

The only possible angle shooting I can see here came from Frist's statement about knowing they can't completely stop it. He could turn around in a year or so and say "look, we tried to stop it but couldn't, so lets at least regulate it."

But I do have to say that the way this all went down is bizarre.


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jimmytrick
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518313 - 10/02/06 09:59 PM

You folks know that the mob is still in control of Vegas. Did you really think that they weren't going to grab the online market too?

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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518321 - 10/02/06 10:00 PM

MGM and Harrahs reps have stated that their ultimate goal is to get online gambling regulated and get sites opened up.

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Kevmath
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7518369 - 10/02/06 10:03 PM

Here's an article from the Financial Times that brings up the possibility of B+M companies swooping in on the online sites. Also worth noting was MGM did attempt to run an online casino.

It may be a while before Harrah's could launch the "WSOP.com" site, since they're suing the person who owns that domain now.


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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518376 - 10/02/06 10:03 PM

Quote:

MGM and Harrahs reps have stated that their ultimate goal is to get online gambling regulated and get sites opened up.




Okay? Who disagrees with that?

If they're trying to go about that by the conspiracy put forward by the OP, their strategy is completely and utterly insane. The only argument I've heard so far to make the conspiracy hold any water is "but they want to crush their competitors first", as if the eventual victory of the B&Ms would ever be in doubt if they were allowed into the market.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518385 - 10/02/06 10:04 PM

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.


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5thStreetHog
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: jimmytrick]
      #7518412 - 10/02/06 10:06 PM

Quote:

You folks know that the mob is still in control of Vegas. Did you really think that they weren't going to grab the online market too?


A mob of suit and tie big corporation people yes

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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kevmath]
      #7518413 - 10/02/06 10:06 PM

Quote:

Here's an article from the Financial Times that brings up the possibility of B+M companies swooping in on the online sites. Also worth noting was MGM did attempt to run an online casino.




Just so this article doesn't get misinterpreted:

"Mr Garber said: "I wouldn't be surprised if they [MGM and Harrah's] didn't have an interest in winning non US-facing companies as a means of tipping their toes in the internet world."

The B&M companies are positioning themselves in the global market outside of the US.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518417 - 10/02/06 10:06 PM

Quote:

Quote:

MGM and Harrahs reps have stated that their ultimate goal is to get online gambling regulated and get sites opened up.




Okay? Who disagrees with that?

If they're trying to go about that by the conspiracy put forward by the OP, their strategy is completely and utterly insane. The only argument I've heard so far to make the conspiracy hold any water is "but they want to crush their competitors first", as if the eventual victory of the B&Ms would ever be in doubt if they were allowed into the market.




Well since I saw the interview with a rep on 20/20 or 60 minutes or some kind of show like that it would be hard to disagree. I doubt I am the only one that saw this. It ran 2-3 months ago. I didn't just make it up and it is no real secret.


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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518421 - 10/02/06 10:07 PM

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




Unless, of course, having an online casino is dependent on having a license for a land-based casino. Assuming for a moment the conspiracy presented by the OP is true, this is certainly a provision that will have been accounted for.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7518434 - 10/02/06 10:08 PM

honestly the whole scenario is so far out in the future that speculating about thins like that is silly

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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518447 - 10/02/06 10:09 PM

Quote:

honestly the whole scenario is so far out in the future that speculating about thins like that is silly




It's certainly fun, though.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518452 - 10/02/06 10:09 PM

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.


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Sarge85
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518453 - 10/02/06 10:09 PM

This connection should be made public with as much noise and fanfare as possible.

True or not, it will be bad for Krist

Sarge


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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518459 - 10/02/06 10:10 PM

Quote:

Well since I saw the interview with a rep on 20/20 or 60 minutes or some kind of show like that it would be hard to disagree. I doubt I am the only one that saw this. It ran 2-3 months ago. I didn't just make it up and it is no real secret.




No, you're exactly right -- Harrah's and MGM would love to get into the internet gaming market if they could.

It should be clear, however, that this says nothing about the liklihood of the OP's conspiracy theory to be true.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518552 - 10/02/06 10:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.




Google, AOL, and Myspace are exactly in the business of translating clicks into $$$$. They already have all the traffic they would need and wouldn't need to spend the advertising dollars - that's the point.

MGM et all could spend a TON and still not get the traffic these sites get


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518562 - 10/02/06 10:17 PM

Well no one said the OP was 100% correct but I think he is on the right path. Conspiracies in the govt or whatever you want to call them usually run pretty deep. Alot of money and string pulling is usually involved. I am not a conspiracy theorist in any way but this is just how the govt opperates. Someone is always greasing someone's pocket and decisions are made based on which lobbyists are willing to pay the most.

This is why alcohol and tobacco products are still legal when they have absolutely no redeeming value whatsoever. If companies like MGM want to have online gambling leagalized it will happen, it is only a matter of time and a matter of how much money it will cost them to make it happen.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518611 - 10/02/06 10:21 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.




Google, AOL, and Myspace are exactly in the business of translating clicks into $$$$. They already have all the traffic they would need and wouldn't need to spend the advertising dollars - that's the point.

MGM et all could spend a TON and still not get the traffic these sites get




Like I said, makes no sense. They get plenty of traffic from all over the world to the middle of the [censored] desert. If you think they won't get traffic to their websites when people don't even have to leave their houses then you are dense.


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518617 - 10/02/06 10:21 PM

Quote:


I'd love for this conspiracy to be true, but it seems like the conspirators went to an awful lot of trouble to achieve something they could have accomplished with much less effort and gotten done much sooner. If Harrah's or some other American gaming corp wants online gaming legalized, why not just go through the typical lobbying channels? If Harrah's, Caesars Ent., MGM et al want Frist or some other Senators do something for them, they typically just cut a bigger check and send it directly to their campaign coffers, or threaten to fund their opponents -- not engage in long, drawn-out legislative shenanigans that would invariably cost them lots of money if this was their 'real' motive.

Party made something like $850 million dollars in revenue last year. I suspect a legitimate American company with huge brand awareness and endless resources like Harrah's or MGM could make two or three times that if given the opportunity. You think they're going to spend a year or two orchestrating this kind of conspiracy when they could be making all that revenue right now? If the answer is "but they want to gain market share" -- that seems pretty silly. Party/Stars/888.com couldn't hope to compete with the B&M behemoths and their aura of legitimacy/infinite advertising resources/huge brand awareness.




Do not underestimate the cost of starting a new online gambling venture and actually get past the break-even point.

Not many would gamble at "Harrah's Online Casino", just because it was Harrah's.....so what? They would be a late comer to a market that is already oversaturated.

But.....

What if you could essentially cut off 80% of your future competitors income, while at the same time become of one of very few servicing the industry (US)?

That is worth many multiples ove the $19,250 that is recorded as being Harrah's official contribution to Frist. (the number is probably higher, probably significantly higher if Frist had any idea how much it was worth)

I would personally pay over $1 Million (depending on how long I could have the market virtually to myself), and my business only generates about $30 Million in revenue per year. That's revenue, not profit.

Tin-Foil-Hat firmly in place,
Woodguy


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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518621 - 10/02/06 10:21 PM

Quote:

Well no one said the OP was 100% correct but I think he is on the right path. Conspiracies in the govt or whatever you want to call them usually run pretty deep. Alot of money and string pulling is usually involved. I am not a conspiracy theorist in any way but this is just how the govt opperates. Someone is always greasing someone's pocket and decisions are made based on which lobbyists are willing to pay the most.

This is why alcohol and tobacco products are still legal when they have absolutely no redeeming value whatsoever. If companies like MGM want to have online gambling leagalized it will happen, it is only a matter of time and a matter of how much money it will cost them to make it happen.




As I said above: "When in doubt, follow the money."


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7518670 - 10/02/06 10:24 PM

Thats LOL if anyone actually believes that Harrahs contributed only 20k to Frist. That is just what's on the books.

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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7518720 - 10/02/06 10:28 PM

Quote:

The existing sites would be dwarfed by the legitimate and known B&M sites, almost instantly.




That is incorrect.

Just because you are a giant player in one segment does not automatically mean you can also dominate another segment.

Many businesses that are very successfull in one part of the market often struggle in others (whether the market being segmented by cost, geography, etc. isn't really important)

This is especially true in businesses with a low barrier to entry.

The land based casino's would have instant credibility and traffic, but not enough to come close to the online giants immediately. That would take time and lots of $$$.

Regards,
Woodguy


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Jeremy517
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518752 - 10/02/06 10:31 PM

Quote:

Thats LOL if anyone actually believes that Harrahs contributed only 20k to Frist. That is just what's on the books.




That donation was in 2000. In 2000, B&M casions WERE against online gambling. Then the boom happened. Now they are no longer against online gambling.

Look at the two Representatives who spoke out against the ban. They were both from Vegas. Think they'd speak out against it if it went against the casinos wishes? It would be career suicide.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518753 - 10/02/06 10:31 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




That doesn't make sense either, that is what advertising is for. Just because you are a popular company in certain businesses does not mean you try to take over every business.




Google, AOL, and Myspace are exactly in the business of translating clicks into $$$$. They already have all the traffic they would need and wouldn't need to spend the advertising dollars - that's the point.

MGM et all could spend a TON and still not get the traffic these sites get




Like I said, makes no sense. They get plenty of traffic from all over the world to the middle of the [censored] desert. If you think they won't get traffic to their websites when people don't even have to leave their houses then you are dense.




so you're saying that b/c these sites MIGHT be able to get the same amount of traffic, they would have an advantage over Google?

I don't understand why anyone would think that Harrahs has what it takes to run an online poker room...it is quite different than the B&M world, and portals like google are much more naturall suited to it


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blueodum
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518775 - 10/02/06 10:32 PM

When in doubt, follow the money. Who stands the gain the most by the IG ban?

All US-based non-poker leisure industries.


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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7518779 - 10/02/06 10:33 PM

Quote:

Do not underestimate the cost of starting a new online gambling venture and actually get past the break-even point.

Not many would gamble at "Harrah's Online Casino", just because it was Harrah's.....so what?




I don't think this is the case. Harrah's/MGM/Caesars/Wynn have huge brand awareness, and I don't think the costs of startup are all that prohibitive to these billion dollar mega corps. "Mirage", "Bellagio" and "Mandalay Bay" are known commodities to US consumers. "WSOP.com" or some variant from Harrah's could monopolize the market on WSOP satellites. The other American B&M companies could monopolize the online satellite market to their big B&M events.

The various internet gaming companies, IMO, are distrusted by a vast majority of Americans. How many of your personal friends, despite the fact they know how much money you make, continue to believe Party juices the flops or rigs the game in favor of their own bots? Federal sponsorship (in the form of legalization and regulation) would go a long way toward percieved legitimacy, but the American B&M companies have an enormous and inherent advantage here.

Quote:

What if you could essentially cut off 80% of your future competitors income, while at the same time become of one of very few servicing the industry (US)?




A great plan. How does what the OP proposed get them there? Conceivably, the conspirators could just arrange it so that legalization and regulation via the federal government would only involve the established American B&M companies while prohibiting access to the established online gaming corporations like 888, Party, and Mansion.

Put differently: if Harrah's et al are going to influence Frist to do all this legislative maneuvering with the expectation online gaming will eventually be legalized and regulated (quite possibly years from now), why not just skip all that [censored] (and the months/years it may take to for that strategy to eventually materialize into a regulated market that they dominate), and why don't they just use their influence peddling to guarantee the federal government only grants them (and they alone) licenses right now? Since the conspiracy implies the American B&M gaming corps. have this kind of influence, why wait two or three years and go through all of this? They're passing up lots and lots of potential revenue right now by doing so, for something they can ostensibly only achieve years from now. How could they explain, if they have the kind of influence the OP implies -- how could they explain all these machinations to stockholders? Certainly the promise of increased revenue (in the distant future) is nice, but it pales in comparison to the promise of increased revenue in the current fiscal year. It defies reason as to why the gaming corps. would orchestrate such an outlandish conspiracy while refusing to take much easier action to accomplish the same ends.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7518843 - 10/02/06 10:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Thats LOL if anyone actually believes that Harrahs contributed only 20k to Frist. That is just what's on the books.




That donation was in 2000. In 2000, B&M casions WERE against online gambling. Then the boom happened. Now they are no longer against online gambling.

Look at the two Representatives who spoke out against the ban. They were both from Vegas. Think they'd speak out against it if it went against the casinos wishes? It would be career suicide.




Not if they know it is going to pass anyway. Their first stance on the subject was that they were against it. What changed their minds?


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Copernicus
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518885 - 10/02/06 10:39 PM

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




I dont buy it. The tie ins to their B&M casinos would be huge. FPP for rooms/suites. "HarrahsPoker.com, the exclusvie site to win WSOP seats" etc.

And the B&Ms have a big head start..programmings done, execs who know the game etc.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7518904 - 10/02/06 10:40 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Like I said, makes no sense. They get plenty of traffic from all over the world to the middle of the [censored] desert. If you think they won't get traffic to their websites when people don't even have to leave their houses then you are dense.




so you're saying that b/c these sites MIGHT be able to get the same amount of traffic, they would have an advantage over Google?

I don't understand why anyone would think that Harrahs has what it takes to run an online poker room...it is quite different than the B&M world, and portals like google are much more naturall suited to it




OK, you are OBV dense


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Jeremy517
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7518925 - 10/02/06 10:41 PM

Quote:

What changed their minds?




The 2002 main event had 600+ entries. The 2006 main event had 8800+ entries. Online sites have sent hundreds of thousands of entrants to tournaments around the world. Casino cash games are far more plentiful than they were in the recent past. None of the boom would have happened without online poker.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7518952 - 10/02/06 10:43 PM

Quote:

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




I dont buy it. The tie ins to their B&M casinos would be huge. FPP for rooms/suites. "HarrahsPoker.com, the exclusvie site to win WSOP seats" etc.

And the B&Ms have a big head start..programmings done, execs who know the game etc.




any site could partner with Expedia to offer the same benefits as the casinos, or even more so. free flights, hotel rooms, etc.

re: the software/knowing the game: this stuff is easy (how much did Party know about poker?), and I would argue that a sits like Google (b/c of their massive bandwidth infrastucture) is actually the one with the headstart


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7518996 - 10/02/06 10:47 PM

Quote:

Quote:

What changed their minds?




The 2002 main event had 600+ entries. The 2006 main event had 8800+ entries. Online sites have sent hundreds of thousands of entrants to tournaments around the world. Casino cash games are far more plentiful than they were in the recent past. None of the boom would have happened without online poker.




For the last time, stop talking about poker and look at the big picture. If these B&M casinos only ran poker rooms they would be out of business.

They are trying to regulate "online gambling" not "online poker". Poker will just happen to fall into that catagory and will make up a small percentage of the business these companies could do online offering all the same house games they currently offer in their B&M casinos.

These companies don't give a [censored] about your poker game.

Edited by LucidDream (10/02/06 10:48 PM)


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blueodum
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519007 - 10/02/06 10:48 PM

What most of you people don't understand is how hard its going to be to get this law repealed. It could be decades before a serious attempt is made. There aren't going to be many legislators willing to go to war over this issue even if they are sympathetic to online gaming, and that's because most voters have a very negative view of gambling.

If this was a ploy by the Vegas casinos to corner the online market, it was a monumentally stupid ploy.


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Jeremy517
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519029 - 10/02/06 10:50 PM

Quote:

For the last time, stop talking about poker and look at the big picture. If these casinos B&M casinos ran poker rooms only they would be out of business.




Fine.

1999 to 2002 Vegas gaming revenue: 7.6 billion per year. NO GROWTH from 1999 to 2002.
2005 Vegas gaming revenue: 9.7 billion

Clear enough?


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checkmate36
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7519047 - 10/02/06 10:52 PM

Quote:

This is why alcohol and tobacco products are still legal when they have absolutely no redeeming value whatsoever. If companies like MGM want to have online gambling leagalized it will happen, it is only a matter of time and a matter of how much money it will cost them to make it happen.





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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7519087 - 10/02/06 10:55 PM

OK, now you are starting to get it but not completely I can see. Take that growth in combination with all the business they were already doing, now pipe it into every home in America. Now they are making infinite.

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Jeremy517
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519107 - 10/02/06 10:56 PM

Ugh, you are one confused guy. Forget it.

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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7519149 - 10/02/06 10:59 PM

Quote:

Ugh, you are one confused guy. Forget it.




Really, then please tell me why betting horses and state lotteries didn't get banned too?


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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519170 - 10/02/06 11:01 PM

Quote:

OK, now you are starting to get it but not completely I can see. Take that growth in combination with all the business they were already doing, now pipe it into every home in America. Now they are making infinite.




Good point.

So, to ensure access into every American home (to make all that money), the legitimate American B&M corporations have devised the most effective plan possible: use their prodigious influence to prohibit the American home from accessing their billion dollar product venture legally.

Make sense to you? Because it sure as hell doesn't to me.


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blueodum
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519232 - 10/02/06 11:05 PM

Really, then please tell me why betting horses and state lotteries didn't get banned too?

Because they had effective lobbyists. But there is a BIG difference between exempting something from a ban and unbanning it.

Think about this: people have been trying to legalize marijuana for decades, and even though it is a relatively harmless substance with several demonstated health benefits, it remains prohibited.

There is no way online gaming will be legalized and regulated in the US this decade.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7519244 - 10/02/06 11:06 PM

Quote:

Quote:

OK, now you are starting to get it but not completely I can see. Take that growth in combination with all the business they were already doing, now pipe it into every home in America. Now they are making infinite.




Good point.

So, to ensure access into every American home (to make all that money), the legitimate American B&M corporations have devised the most effective plan possible: use their prodigious influence to prohibit the American home from accessing their billion dollar product venture legally.

Make sense to you? Because it sure as hell doesn't to me.




Well since it was already illegal to run a gambling site from within the US they didn't put themselves in a worse postion than they were already in. They did put their competition in a pretty tight spot though.

Don't think someone won't come along soon and say, "You regulate lotteries and horses, time to regulate online gambing for US Sites." And magically the majority in the govt will be behind it, and it won't have anything to do with all that money their "campaign funds" received.


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7519249 - 10/02/06 11:06 PM

Quote:


Put differently: if Harrah's et al are going to influence Frist to do all this legislative maneuvering with the expectation online gaming will eventually be legalized and regulated (quite possibly years from now), why not just skip all that [censored] (and the months/years it may take to for that strategy to eventually materialize into a regulated market that they dominate), and why don't they just use their influence peddling to guarantee the federal government only grants them (and they alone) licenses right now? Since the conspiracy implies the American B&M gaming corps. have this kind of influence, why wait two or three years and go through all of this? They're passing up lots and lots of potential revenue right now by doing so, for something they can ostensibly only achieve years from now. How could they explain, if they have the kind of influence the OP implies -- how could they explain all these machinations to stockholders? Certainly the promise of increased revenue (in the distant future) is nice, but it pales in comparison to the promise of increased revenue in the current fiscal year. It defies reason as to why the gaming corps. would orchestrate such an outlandish conspiracy while refusing to take much easier action to accomplish the same ends.




That's perfectly plausible as well.

It would be harder to do though, as its not really legal to restrict foriegn companies from competing in this market segment, if you belive that the WTO has any teeth. (which is debatable).

edit: especially if the foreign companies are already servicing this market. As a Canadian who sells into the US I know some of this to be true (but being Candian, I am helped greatly by NAFTA and this doesn't fall into my particular expertise but I did read the WTO ruling on the last online gaming case a while back.....)

This may all be conjecture, but it does fit rather nicely, especially since Harrah's donated to Frist's campaign. Why else would Harrah's donate, simple good will from a Senator from Tennessee(sp)? Does Harrah operate anything in Tennessee? That may make sense if they do, and this conjecture is incorrect.

I still have my tinfoil hat on though....

Regards,
Woodguy

Edited by woodguy (10/02/06 11:09 PM)


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New001
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7519275 - 10/02/06 11:08 PM

This may or may not be relevant, but anyone who remembers the Washington state gambling laws should remember that the state legislator who introduced the bill received campaign money from many local casinos.

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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: blueodum]
      #7519286 - 10/02/06 11:09 PM

Quote:

Think about this: people have been trying to legalize marijuana for decades, and even though it is a relatively harmless substance with several demonstated health benefits, it remains prohibited.

There is no way online gaming will be legalized and regulated in the US this decade.




Marijuana also has no big money behind it to push to make it legal. The big money (tobacco, alcohol) are firmly against it's legalization. Quite the opposite is (or can be) true for online gambling.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7519306 - 10/02/06 11:11 PM

You really can't compare drugs to gambling. One is currently legal in certain venues in the US and the other is totally illegal entirely in the US.

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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LucidDream]
      #7519331 - 10/02/06 11:13 PM

Quote:

You really can't compare drugs to gambling. One is currently legal in certain venues in the US and the other is totally illegal entirely in the US.




You can, in the sense that it demonstrates the effectiveness of lobbyists (and money) on US policy.


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Eme
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7519353 - 10/02/06 11:14 PM

Quote:

yes it was those red mothaffuckas




Quote:

youve got a better case that it was Abramhoff and his indian casino friends that got this done than Harrahs.




the "red mothaffuckas" reed and abramoff ripped off, i guess?

when in doubt, resort to racism, paranoia, and hysteria.


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Gugel
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: New001]
      #7519360 - 10/02/06 11:15 PM

The senators from Nevada voted FOR the bill. Would they really go against the wishes of their biggest financial supporters?

Top 5 Contributors to Senator JOHN ENSIGN (Nevada)
1 MGM Mirage $159,050
2 Harrah's Entertainment $93,065
3 Simmons Cooper LLC $73,400
4 Station Casinos $38,000
5 Baron & Budd $37,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00006619&cycle=2006

Top 5 Contributors to Senator HARRY REID (Nevada)
1 MGM Mirage $105,200
2 Mandalay Resort Group $78,350
3 Simmons Cooper LLC $73,400
4 Harrah's Entertainment $68,600
5 Station Casinos $38,000

http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.asp?CID=N00009922&cycle=2004


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7519426 - 10/02/06 11:19 PM

Quote:

Quote:

You really can't compare drugs to gambling. One is currently legal in certain venues in the US and the other is totally illegal entirely in the US.




You can, in the sense that it demonstrates the effectiveness of lobbyists (and money) on US policy.




Well that is kind of the point too. Who is going to lobby for the legalization of drugs, Mexico and Columbia? Tobacco is too big of business also to want the competition so they are obv against it which is why it will never be legal.


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Jeremy517
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7519472 - 10/02/06 11:22 PM

Quote:

The senators from Nevada voted FOR the bill. Would they really go against the wishes of their biggest financial supporters?





Uh, yes. This was a Port Security bill, not a gambling bill. To vote against it would be fodder for your future opponents to say that you are soft on terrorism.

If you watched CSPAN, the woman representative from Las Vegas who spoke out against the gambling ban, ended her comments by saying that she was voting for the bill because of the port security aspect, but was firmly against the online gambling ban.


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DVaut1
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7519616 - 10/02/06 11:32 PM

Quote:

Why else would Harrah's donate, simple good will from a Senator from Tennessee(sp)? Does Harrah operate anything in Tennessee?




I don't believe Harrah's has any interests in Tenneesee.

But as Frist as demonstrated (along with the natural influence that comes with being the Majority Leader in the Senate), he's a powerful ally on issues of national scope that Harrah's may have a keen interest in -- labor relations, health care costs, policies pertaining to the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs to recognize tribes for casino projects they sponsor or co-partner in, federal laws regarding wagering on college athletics, etc. are all issues where Harrah's may be trying to buy influence or at least access via campaign contributions.

Harrah's has given away more than $300k in political contributions in 2006 to date -- $20k six years ago to one of the most powerful politicians in the country hardly seems indicative of some kind of conspiracy.

This article in In Business Las Vegas gives a relatively informative description of how and why B&M casinos contribute.


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LucidDream
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7519650 - 10/02/06 11:35 PM

OK, I am done arguing here since everyone is going to believe what they want anyway. I will say this though in departing, pay attention to what these big casino companies do in the future in terms of online gaming. I guarantee you they make a run at it.

Ask yourself this. As hard as it is going to be to stop all of these online gambling sites right now, why would the US Govt go after them knowing what it is going to cost them to stop it? Things are always done for a reason and the main reason is usually money. If you think they are trying to keep the average american from losing his yearly salary playing poker that definately isn't the reason.

Don't get confused and think this is an online poker issue because it isn't. This is an online gambling issue and the issue is that big US casinos want to get into the online gambling business. Poker will be a small part of that big picture.

You would be naive not to see that this is what things are leading to.


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: DVaut1]
      #7519984 - 10/02/06 11:59 PM

Here are Harrah's top 5 political contributions for the record you linked to. They are also the only amounts above $10K. (edited typing error, "about" s/b "above")

Quote:

Amount Date Description
Ensign Majority Committee, Las Vegas, NV $19,500 2/17/2006
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Washingt $15,000 12/9/2005
National Republican Congressional Committee, Washi $15,000 6/26/2006
Senate Majority Committee, Washington, DC $12,000 6/24/2005 4K Allen VA, 4K Burns MT, 4K Battle Born





It seems that their largest donation is to the Ensign Majority Commitee. That's the same dollar nubmer that appears in Frist list as coming from Harrah's.

So $20K for the guy who gets it done and $15K for the sheep to remain sheep on both sides of the aisle.

In the article you linked to, it states that:

Quote:

Gaming is still regulated primarily by states rather than the federal government. It's also subject to nonpartisan debate, unlike other large corporate interests that typically lean Republican. Many liberal Democrats oppose casinos or don't support gaming expansion alongside conservative Republicans.




So why would an industry that is almost wholly governed by state law save their biggest donations for federal poltics?

They also state that:

Quote:

"We support people who support our industry," said Frank Fahrenkopf, chief executive of the American Gaming Association.




So why would Harrah's single biggest donation be to the precise person who helped stem the flop of $$$ to current online gaming sites, but who sees gambling as evil. That doesn't sound like someone who supports the gambling industry.

I suppose they could be trying to buy Frist's vote, but when would Harrah's needs Frists vote?

The Native Casino link would be the most obvious answer to the question, "Why would Harrah's try to buy a powerful federal politicians?" (aside from online $$$ tinfoilhattheory) What is Frists voting record and public stance on those issues?

I understand this all may well be a coincidence, but when large $$$ are involved, coincidence can be tough to swallow on the surface.


Regards,
Woodguy

Edited by woodguy (10/03/06 12:30 AM)


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Azizal
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: blueodum]
      #7519995 - 10/03/06 12:00 AM

Quote:



Think about this: people have been trying to legalize marijuana for decades, and even though it is a relatively harmless substance with several demonstated health benefits, it remains prohibited.






There are no deep pockets in the "legalize marijuana crowds". Online gambling in the US would be infinitely more profitable than legal marijuana. That is a huge difference between the two issues. Gambling is already legal in certain restricted ways, though much less than the few legal ways to use/grow pot. I would guess that more people in this country are for internet gambling than for the legalization of pot, though that makes little difference. It's all about the money, and the gambling interests have it, and the incentive to make more, while the marijuana "interests" are politically and financial midgets by comparison.

PS. This same whole conspiracy theory occurred to me and some friends as well. I think on some levels it is true, though the challenge to get gambling legalized is not a small one. However, given the amount of money involved I am sure some people are working towards it. Whether or not they succeed is up in the air.


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cmattos
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Azizal]
      #7520077 - 10/03/06 12:07 AM

This was posted in the main Legislation forum, but it has particular relevance to this thread:

Party Gaming looking to purchase smaller gaming sites. MGM & Harrah's may follow.


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spatne
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Azizal]
      #7520202 - 10/03/06 12:16 AM

Quote:


There are no deep pockets in the "legalize marijuana crowds".




Patchwork pants have very deep pockets. Unfortunately, they're filled with polished beads and brownie crumbs.


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mattnxtc
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Jeremy517]
      #7520220 - 10/03/06 12:17 AM

I actually am expecting this...u get rid of the foreign competition and then allow US casinos to take over...i kinda expect to see this in a year or 2

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mason55
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7520777 - 10/03/06 01:00 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

what everyone here seems to miss is this:

the sites that would benefit the most from online poker legalization in the US would NOT be Harrahs, MGM, Bellagio, et al.

the best positioned companies would be google, myspace and AOL - sites that already get billions of traffic hits that they could easily translate into their new rooms.

Traffic leads to downloads, which leads to players, which leads to critical mass.

Harrahs et al could spend untold millions and still not get the traffic that the other sites already get - and these sites would not have to pay ANYTHING for this traffic.

money is not the problem in creating a room (see Mansion) - it is website traffic.




I dont buy it. The tie ins to their B&M casinos would be huge. FPP for rooms/suites. "HarrahsPoker.com, the exclusvie site to win WSOP seats" etc.

And the B&Ms have a big head start..programmings done, execs who know the game etc.




any site could partner with Expedia to offer the same benefits as the casinos, or even more so. free flights, hotel rooms, etc.

re: the software/knowing the game: this stuff is easy (how much did Party know about poker?), and I would argue that a sits like Google (b/c of their massive bandwidth infrastucture) is actually the one with the headstart




I'm not arguing one way or another but all the casinos need to do is get a licensing clause written in and they won't have to worry about google et al.

this was mentioned earlier in the thread.


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tmfs
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7521348 - 10/03/06 01:54 AM

Quote:

Why else would Harrah's donate, simple good will from a Senator from Tennessee(sp)? Does Harrah operate anything in Tennessee? That may make sense if they do, and this conjecture is incorrect.




Harrah's Casino
1100 Casino Strip Boulevard , (Off Hwy 61: 35 miles south of Memphis) , Robinsonville, TN


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Instyle007
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7521890 - 10/03/06 02:58 AM

I'm so happy that my thread has lead to this wonderful discussion.

I don't know why Party & 888 threw in the towel so quickly. I do know however that something is up.

There is no reason for them to quit so easily. The law has not taken effect yet. Banking groups have said it will be very tough if not impossible to police. Some say the law doesn't apply to poker.

We'll find out soon enough I'm sure.


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Caveman
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Gugel]
      #7523995 - 10/03/06 10:41 AM

Here you go, the mother of all conspiracy theories. It is very long and also purely based on an overactive imagination trying to make sense of this whole situation. I am not saying this is what is happening, I just wrote this to get rid of some of my frustration, sometimes it calms my mind to write things like this to get them out of my head.

Bill Frist: Why did he push this so hard? I know the general opinion seems to be to court the religious right, Congressman Leachís support, etc and it really might be that simple. Maybe he had a child, relatives child or close friends who failed in school due to spending their time playing poker online and it became personal for him. The last possibility is he was convinced of something that could really boost his exposure and give him a real boost in his Presidential aspirations at just the right time.(Right before the primaries for maximum effect.) This last option will make more sense at the end of the piece I am writing now.

Existing online sites: Why didnít they do more to prevent this legislation? This on is a real bear to get a handle on. Were they really so stupid as to assume that nothing would pass so that they didnít have to make a serious effort to prevent this? I could believe this about some of the sites, but to believe this of all of them is quite a stretch in my opinion. Granted the True Poker CEO was at least active on the forums and concerned, but he is the only one that seemed to care at all. Maybe they were convinced by someone or some group that the threat wasnít nearly as big as it appeared on the surface. It would have taken someone inside the gambling industry to pull this off. There is really no way for me to know the answer to this question, but I have an idea on a mechanism that might have been used to convince all those involved that enforcement would be very difficult if not impossible. It has to do with the banks and cost of enforcement of the regulations.

This legislation is focused on making the banks and financial institutions the primary tool in stopping the flow of money and thereby making it impossible or extremely difficult for US citizens to gamble online. Others have pointed out how there is no way the banks can refuse to do this and they are technically correct the banking industry has to comply if the government insists. The banks are really the only hope we left, there is a possibility that doing what the govt. wants is too costly.

What is an EFT (Electronic Funds Transfer)? This is exactly like it sounds, if the money is moved electronically it qualifies as an EFT. This includes the EFT transfers most of us are familiar with from tying Neteller to our bank accounts. It also includes every ATM transaction, use of debit cards, prepaid phone cards, etc. short version is that it includes ANY and all ELECTRONIC TRANSFERS of money. You go into Walmart and pay with a check, they convert it to an EFT at the register and hand your check back to you, because they no longer need the check. The US Treasury prefers to due business by EFT for the same reason as Walmart it costs much less. The Treasury says it cost something like 0.89 cents to process a check vs 0.07 cents to process an EFT, quite a costs difference. There are millions, possibly hundreds of millions of EFT transactions every day in the US. How much is it going to costs for the banks to make sure none of these transactions is done with money from online gambling. While the banks canít refuse to enforce the regulations even the Govt. Would have a hard time saying the banks should spend more money to enforce the regulation than the whole online gambling industry represents. The American people may not care one way or another about online gambling, but if the banks say its going to cost them every time they do an EFT they will care about that. What about businesses having to pay these fees for every EFT, in short it could seriously damage not only these business but possibly the whole American economy. If this is in fact the case what do you think will happen to these regulations?

Suppose about the same time that the banking industry is talking about these costs someone steps up and offers a possible solution. Someone like this group that is about to buy Harrahs steps up with a solution. They say allow online gaming but make people physically come to a casino to register in order to verify identity and age if they want to play online. This eliminates the underage gambling objection. They also agree to send in the proper tax documents to the IRS and to the state the people are from. This would make sure the Govt. Get the money it feels its due from both the sites and individual players. The games would be regulated by existing or new gaming commissions ensuring the fairness of games. Money would be held in US banks thereby making sure people are not taken advantage of by fly by night companies operating from places where the owners are effectively untouchable by US laws. This also helps the Govt. Prevent money laundering which the politicians seem to think is going on now. If someone loses a certain amount of money gambling online they will have to prove they have the means to afford the losses or they will be cut off. This at least gives some control over making sure that people with gambling addictions do not click the mouse and lose the house as the politicians seem so fond of saying. They could give individual states the right to make this illegal if they so choose, giving the gambling rights choice back to the states themselves.

What this accomplishes is giving US companies control of the American players. These companies will not have to fight for market share it will be handed to them. Plus it wouldnít just be online poker it would be online casinos too. The sites being US based could offer incentives to players such as free rooms etc thereby also increasing the land based business profits too. They could either allow foreign players to sign up or make agreements with existing companies like the skins of different sites do now. The real question is whether someone or some group had the wherewithal to try this, possibly even orchestrate it .Its worth taking a shot due to the amount of money involved we are talking billions here. Existing sites will go to the WTO screaming about protectionism, but the US will argue that underage gambling was rampant and that there is no way for those sites to truly prevent this. They will probably also mention the money laundering angle, security of funds, and fairness of games issues.

Back to how Frist benefits. He can state how while he abhors gambling and did his best to stop it, the politicians still in office decided it was not worth it do to the cost of enforcement. While his legislation was not completely successful it did prevent underage gambling, and increased revenues for the Govt by making sure that taxes are paid by both the players and the companies. People who suffer from gambling addictions will have at least some protection which is better than the no protection they had before. In addition it wonít be offshore fly by night companies doing this but legitimate US based businesses, ensuring the integrity of the games and policing for possible money laundering operations. I am sure he and his people would be able to spin this in their favor even more, making this a win-win situation for him. If the new rules are announced at the right time he gets publicity (free advertising) and a platform to speak from to try to launch his bid for the presidency.

Damn, I just realized I had my tinfoil hat on inside out, no wonder Iv'e been having so many crazy thoughts.


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bcblack
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Caveman]
      #7524151 - 10/03/06 10:59 AM

This is funny, the first day I heard about the legislation back a year ago or whenever, I thought "Ha! I bet the US casinos are behind this so they can break the party poker domination and get in on the markekt themselves."

Looks like it might be the case, and I would like it if it happened.


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Copernicus
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Caveman]
      #7524218 - 10/03/06 11:07 AM

You missed the biggest question:

Why didnt they ban cashouts? Enterprising players and sites will find workarounds to playing and depositing, but if there were any risk of not getting your winnings out, how many people would play?

They could have set a window for withdrawals after which no checks/EFTs/cc deposits/intermediaries would be able to pay out monies from a gaming site.

The fact that they didnt do that is the only thing that makes me wonder if there isnt more to come.


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reddred
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: viper930]
      #7524261 - 10/03/06 11:11 AM

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




And how do you think attendance at the B&M casinos is going to be once Americans can't play online anymore??


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LearnedfromTV
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Caveman]
      #7524371 - 10/03/06 11:24 AM

I can't believe I read that entire post. I liked this part:

Someone like this group that is about to buy Harrahs steps up with a solution. They say allow online gaming but make people physically come to a casino to register in order to verify identity and age if they want to play online. This eliminates the underage gambling objection. They also agree to send in the proper tax documents to the IRS and to the state the people are from. This would make sure the Govt. Get the money it feels its due from both the sites and individual players. The games would be regulated by existing or new gaming commissions ensuring the fairness of games.


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dedmoney
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: LearnedfromTV]
      #7524533 - 10/03/06 11:37 AM

This doesn't seem that far fetched to me. Online poker goes 'illegal,' Party gets whacked by 50% of it's value (while losing 70% of it's revenue, which I find odd), the governemtn works to 'regulate' the industry, meaning lincensing and requirements and measures to 'protect' us. Harrahs/MGM strangely enough already has this license and is therefore in position to buy Party or, more likely, a private equity firm buys Party and somehow does a joint venture with a major casino company to make it happen.

Why does Party only fall 50-60% when they are losing at least 70% of their revs? What about the 270 days to get everything situated? A lot can happen in 270 days.

I'm not saying I believe it, but there are a lot of possabilities, and a lot of actions that look pretty dubious.


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MrWookie
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: bcblack]
      #7524591 - 10/03/06 11:42 AM

Quote:

This is funny, the first day I heard about the legislation back a year ago or whenever, I thought "Ha! I bet the US casinos are behind this so they can break the party poker domination and get in on the markekt themselves."

Looks like it might be the case, and I would like it if it happened.




Honestly, I think that if last week, Harrah's was able to open their own online poker room legitimately in the midst of Party's dominance, Party would be done for. Assuming Harrah's room was on the up and up, they could launch a huge ad campaign saying as much, discrediting Party's trustworthiness. Furthermore, just the pride of playing on an American room would draw me there. No American room would have any trouble drawing people once they heard about it. Virtually everyone on this forum would open an account there to check them out, and new players who'd never played before would be drawn to the American room. If they were remotely competitive with Party wrt rake and software, we'd have a new market leader.


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Kneel B4 Zod
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: dedmoney]
      #7524665 - 10/03/06 11:49 AM

Quote:

Why does Party only fall 50-60% when they are losing at least 70% of their revs? What about the 270 days to get everything situated? A lot can happen in 270 days.




you answered your own question. the issue is not a medium term or long term slam dunk, and growth prospects for Europe/Asia remain strong.


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Copernicus
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: MrWookie]
      #7524731 - 10/03/06 11:54 AM

Quote:

Quote:

This is funny, the first day I heard about the legislation back a year ago or whenever, I thought "Ha! I bet the US casinos are behind this so they can break the party poker domination and get in on the markekt themselves."

Looks like it might be the case, and I would like it if it happened.




Honestly, I think that if last week, Harrah's was able to open their own online poker room legitimately in the midst of Party's dominance, Party would be done for. Assuming Harrah's room was on the up and up, they could launch a huge ad campaign saying as much, discrediting Party's trustworthiness. Furthermore, just the pride of playing on an American room would draw me there. No American room would have any trouble drawing people once they heard about it. Virtually everyone on this forum would open an account there to check them out, and new players who'd never played before would be drawn to the American room. If they were remotely competitive with Party wrt rake and software, we'd have a new market leader.




Exactly. The notion that a US casino company would need to spend the money to buy a foreign site is silly imo. The marketing of the site through B&M affiliations is inexpensive for them, but prohibitively expensive (or illegal under trademark laws) for a foreign site to replicate.

Eg. HarrahsPoker.com can probably prohibit other sites from running satellites to the WSOP under trademark laws. Even if they cant, they can offer room and food comps at their cost, while an outside company would have to pay full retail to offer those items.


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KingQueenSuited
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7524766 - 10/03/06 11:57 AM

This is more than a theory I found this link on this site! lol

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15109442/


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dedmoney
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: KingQueenSuited]
      #7526119 - 10/03/06 01:37 PM

Well, regardless of what goes on with IG and such, I know for a fact that hotel companies are planiing on taking over the world.

The marriott in bmore, right on the water was built with all the infrastructure to get a gambling operation up and running very quickly, for stuff like the network and security systems and such.

I've got to assume that a lot of hotel/gaming companies have confidence that they will be able to expand their legalized gaming to a lot more places.

I hope this is true.


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: KingQueenSuited]
      #7526167 - 10/03/06 01:40 PM

The London Telegraph agrees as well"

Quote:

But the industry is dominated by UK companies. With this move, Congress has destroyed the existing edifice of American online gambling, however creaky its British foundations. Given the demand in the States, the next move, I suspect, will be for American legislators to rebuild the industry based on a new set of regulations creating an online business dominated by American gaming companies.




Here's a link to the whole article.

My tinfoil hat is now warm,
Woodguy


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Teetster
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: cmattos]
      #7526291 - 10/03/06 01:47 PM

Quote:

Quote:

2b. Casinos start up their own versions of online poker. American casinos quickly gobble up the U.S. market.
2c. The U.S. government gets hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue.





I would think most online poker players (especially now) would be happy to see the above take place.




This would have been a good outcome, I agree. We'll see in 10 years if it actually happens...


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: MrWookie]
      #7526565 - 10/03/06 02:02 PM

Quote:

Honestly, I think that if last week, Harrah's was able to open their own online poker room legitimately in the midst of Party's dominance, Party would be done for. Assuming Harrah's room was on the up and up, they could launch a huge ad campaign saying as much, discrediting Party's trustworthiness.




The cost of such a marketing effort is very large. Plus, opening up at the same time the US is shutting down foreign companies who are already active in the market is next to impossible. There would be injunctions, lawsuits, appeals to the WTO, and lots of messy business were the US gov simply to say "all foreign companies get out, all US companies get on"

Even if they could do this, there is no guarantee that Harrah's traffic would even come close to Full Tilt in the first year, let alone Party or Stars.

Full Tilit is probably the best late comer start up to use as a model. They have cache (as would Harrah's) and credibility with the current consumers (poker players). They have spent millions on marketing, and in the 3 (?) years they have been a going concern, they still do not have 15% of the market.

Just because Harrah's is Harrahs is no reason to assume massive, cheap and immediate market penetration. They would have to earn their online customer just as much as everyone else. They would have a head start over a "cold" start up with no reputation in the industry, but that doesn't amount ot "killing" Party or Stars anywhere in the near future if they had to compete head to head.

Most poker players have a slight (or more) distain for Harrah due to the crappy way we all get treated at the WSOP. To say they can step into a market and dominate it with a simple ad campaign just simply isn't true.

Would Harrah's do well with a cold start? Most probably, but it would take a long time (and time=$$$) and a lot of marketing $$$ to come even close to the industry leaders.

Lucky for them that they now probably do not have to face those obstacles.

Regards,
Woodguy


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Teetster]
      #7526633 - 10/03/06 02:05 PM

Quote:

This would have been a good outcome, I agree. We'll see in 10 years if it actually happens...




I don't see why it won't get done by the end of 2007 or early 2008.

Regards,
Woodguy


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sam h
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7527107 - 10/03/06 02:26 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Honestly, I think that if last week, Harrah's was able to open their own online poker room legitimately in the midst of Party's dominance, Party would be done for. Assuming Harrah's room was on the up and up, they could launch a huge ad campaign saying as much, discrediting Party's trustworthiness.




The cost of such a marketing effort is very large. Plus, opening up at the same time the US is shutting down foreign companies who are already active in the market is next to impossible. There would be injunctions, lawsuits, appeals to the WTO, and lots of messy business were the US gov simply to say "all foreign companies get out, all US companies get on"

Even if they could do this, there is no guarantee that Harrah's traffic would even come close to Full Tilt in the first year, let alone Party or Stars.

Full Tilit is probably the best late comer start up to use as a model. They have cache (as would Harrah's) and credibility with the current consumers (poker players). They have spent millions on marketing, and in the 3 (?) years they have been a going concern, they still do not have 15% of the market.

Just because Harrah's is Harrahs is no reason to assume massive, cheap and immediate market penetration. They would have to earn their online customer just as much as everyone else. They would have a head start over a "cold" start up with no reputation in the industry, but that doesn't amount ot "killing" Party or Stars anywhere in the near future if they had to compete head to head.

Most poker players have a slight (or more) distain for Harrah due to the crappy way we all get treated at the WSOP. To say they can step into a market and dominate it with a simple ad campaign just simply isn't true.

Would Harrah's do well with a cold start? Most probably, but it would take a long time (and time=$$$) and a lot of marketing $$$ to come even close to the industry leaders.

Lucky for them that they now probably do not have to face those obstacles.

Regards,
Woodguy




I think you are actually underestimating how difficult it would have been for Harrah's to gain penetration. Online poker is a classic case of "network effects." The value of the product to the consumer is mostly a function of how many other consumers are using the same product, and once you have a giant like Party it is almost impossible to gain substantially on them unless they really screw up (a la friendster). This is basically the same situation with eBay. There is a reason Google or Microsoft can't just spend a bunch of money and dominate that market.

I am on the fence regarding the conspiracy theories, but I think that its absolutely clear that the only way for a Harrah's to get into the online poker market as a major player was to use other (read: political) means to disrupt or destroy the currently entrenched consumer networks.


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: sam h]
      #7527277 - 10/03/06 02:35 PM

Quote:

This is basically the same situation with eBay. There is a reason Google or Microsoft can't just spend a bunch of money and dominate that market.





Excellent example.

I agree.

Quote:

I think that its absolutely clear that the only way for a Harrah's to get into the online poker market as a major player was to use other (read: political) means to disrupt or destroy the currently entrenched consumer networks.




Agreed again. Way, way, way easier, cheaper, quicker, and with much deeper market penetration than going with a start up.

Regards,
Woodguy


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That Fish
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7528438 - 10/03/06 03:37 PM

The only way this makes sense is if the government had a plan all along to legalize IG and regulate it to capture all the tax they think they are missing out on.
It was too small to really worry about before, now it's too big to kill off.

Problem is all the major casino's here don't have a foothold, and really can't expect much of one. That and any republicans have a hard time convincing their constituants it's a good idea.

So how to save face and still get what you want?
Pass a useless law that sounds great but never gets enforced (banks claim after it's passed it's too expensive/impractical to enforce). It also gives a guy with presidential aspirations a soundbite about how he's protecting the public from this unregulated evil.

Meanwhile you create the opportunity for american run companies to get their share, the republicans can then say, 'hey look, we tried but there is just no way to do it' so the only way is to legalize it and tax those sinful bastards.

Of course this all assumes that they've already studied how much tax revenue it represents and more importantly how much it would need to be to get votes to pass. There are probably some kickbacks involved as well, but that's business as usual...

Problem is, I don't think there is anyone in our govt. that is smart enough to pull it off...


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alex-star
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7528823 - 10/03/06 03:59 PM

As in anyone in the internet business knows, Google/Yahoo traffic can be bought if you have the $$$ to spend.

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ACW
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Kneel B4 Zod]
      #7529251 - 10/03/06 04:23 PM

Also, should the law get overturned (WTO or whatever means), Party Gaming could turn out to be a great buy right now.

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ACW
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7529328 - 10/03/06 04:26 PM

Quote:



Why didnt they ban cashouts? Enterprising players and sites will find workarounds to playing and depositing, but if there were any risk of not getting your winnings out, how many people would play?

They could have set a window for withdrawals after which no checks/EFTs/cc deposits/intermediaries would be able to pay out monies from a gaming site.

The fact that they didnt do that is the only thing that makes me wonder if there isnt more to come.




Or it could be a genuine concern for player's welfare. Maybe the guy is worried about people losing money, not about them winning it....


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Steel_Pots
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: reddred]
      #7531257 - 10/03/06 06:04 PM

Quote:

Quote:

B&M casinos would never purposely pull something like this. The continuous growth of the online poker industry has brought a ton of new business to the B&M casinos. People play online, polish up, think theyre hot [censored], and figure I'll go give the casino a try. There is no reason why the casinos would risk losing that continuous flow of new players to fight each other over something that might not even end up working out (because some online sites will not be backing out and will have a greater chance at the market than startup B&M online rooms). Good try though.

/theory




And how do you think attendance at the B&M casinos is going to be once Americans can't play online anymore??




I think online poker has contributed about 5% to the increase in B&M poker - 90% is due to television. I know about 15 guys from work and another 10 or so from outside of work that I play poker with, and including myself, all of 3 people play online. But these guys all know who Moneymaker, Fossilman, Phil Ivey, et al. are. Point being, poker will continue to grow in popularity as long as it is televised.


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Copernicus
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: woodguy]
      #7531576 - 10/03/06 06:22 PM

Quote:

Quote:

This is basically the same situation with eBay. There is a reason Google or Microsoft can't just spend a bunch of money and dominate that market.





Excellent example.

I agree.

Quote:

I think that its absolutely clear that the only way for a Harrah's to get into the online poker market as a major player was to use other (read: political) means to disrupt or destroy the currently entrenched consumer networks.




Agreed again. Way, way, way easier, cheaper, quicker, and with much deeper market penetration than going with a start up.

Regards,
Woodguy




There are major differences between IG and Ebay.

New US based poker sites can give signup bonuses and rakeback deals. Every bonus whore will be there in the first month. Ebay can give minor discounts on shipping or whatever, but nothing like a 100% deposit bonus.

There is a huge market that has avoided IG because its offshore and they dont trust their money there. It comes in more slowly than the current market, but they will be there within a year. Ebay has never had those barriers so a new company cant exploit them.

Legalize IG and credit cards become a funding vehicle. Very few CC companies permitted their use before the bill. Ebay has never had that problem, and a new company doesnt have that competitive advantage.

IG in the US has a huge B&M tie in possibility. A competitor to Ebay is still strictly online.

IG has a large base of ancillary products and publications supporting the market. Advertising with them is free or cheap. Eg PokerTracker immediately sets up databases for the US sites, because of the huge market. Maintenance of the offshore sites is far less profitable. CardPlayer, Bluff and the other magazines will have articles covering the new sites even before they open. The Ebay product doesnt have that satellite business that a new competitor can exploit.

There are even good examples within the history of IP. Paradise was the first major player and had something like an 18 month lead before other sites really started popping up. Within 6 months of the market really opening up Paradise was a minor player.


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StrayBullet
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: ACW]
      #7531622 - 10/03/06 06:24 PM

Quote:

Or it could be a genuine concern for player's welfare. Maybe the guy is worried about people losing money, not about them winning it....




Well then, ban alcohol, cigarettes, cars, smog producing plants and on and on and on and on....


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ACW
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: StrayBullet]
      #7531803 - 10/03/06 06:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Or it could be a genuine concern for player's welfare. Maybe the guy is worried about people losing money, not about them winning it....




Well then, ban alcohol, cigarettes, cars, smog producing plants and on and on and on and on....




I wasn't trying to defend it, just understand his motivation. I think that sometimes the simple explanation may be the correct one. Unless you understand what's driving the legislators, you'll never change their views.


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mmbt0ne
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7531804 - 10/03/06 06:33 PM

Quote:

New US based poker sites can give signup bonuses and rakeback deals and comp points you can redeem at the live casinos




::SWOON::


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woodguy
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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: Copernicus]
      #7532524 - 10/03/06 08:23 PM

Quote:



There are major differences between IG and Ebay.

New US based poker sites can give signup bonuses and rakeback deals. Every bonus whore will be there in the first month. Ebay can give minor discounts on shipping or whatever, but nothing like a 100% deposit bonus.

There is a huge market that has avoided IG because its offshore and they dont trust their money there. It comes in more slowly than the current market, but they will be there within a year. Ebay has never had those barriers so a new company cant exploit them.

Legalize IG and credit cards become a funding vehicle. Very few CC companies permitted their use before the bill. Ebay has never had that problem, and a new company doesnt have that competitive advantage.

IG in the US has a huge B&M tie in possibility. A competitor to Ebay is still strictly online.

IG has a large base of ancillary products and publications supporting the market. Advertising with them is free or cheap. Eg PokerTracker immediately sets up databases for the US sites, because of the huge market. Maintenance of the offshore sites is far less profitable. CardPlayer, Bluff and the other magazines will have articles covering the new sites even before they open. The Ebay product doesnt have that satellite business that a new competitor can exploit.




I too have no doubt that when the B&M casino organizations get involved in IG, they will do it very well and hopefully bring a level of professionalism that is sorely lacking in most sites.

My point is that regardless of how good they are, they cannot hope for easy, inexpensive market penetration.

I disagree with you that acheiving deep market penetration would be cheap. Its my understanding that the lifeblood of any IG business is new players and high volume players. Neither are cheap or easy to get. Industry mags may be cheap, but television spots and dragging volume players to your site and retaining them isn't.

I think we also have to remember that if the conditions existed as you stated (IG being legal etc), that there would be hundreds,of new IG sites being set up in the US and abroad to attack the legal US market. Harrah's. Mirage, and any others, while having instant brand recognition, would still be one of many, and would be fighting for market share in a very diluted market.

I think they would be successfull, but not instant smash hits. Not when established companies will still work like hell to keep their customers and start upping the ante on rakeback etc, which will drive down margins etc.
No one with large marketshare is going quietly into that goodnight just because new competitors are around. Margins start to erode as costs of getting and keeping customers increase as the established players up the ante on the latest offer from Harrahs etc, etc.

I have no doubt large B&M gaming organizations will do well, but in an open market it would be a pretty good fight.


Quote:


There are even good examples within the history of IP. Paradise was the first major player and had something like an 18 month lead before other sites really started popping up. Within 6 months of the market really opening up Paradise was a minor player.



.

The fact that Paradise took their market position for granted doesn't mean that Party, Stars, etc, would also do it. In fact, since they were the ones who took Paradise down, they would already know the pitfalls and be ready.

Imagine a regulated US market and the amount of competition that would fight for it. It would make the competition that Paradise faced pale in comparison.

I agree that B&M's would probably do a good job, but its nothing anywhere near the steamroller job they could do if they opened up in a protected market of US competitors only, especially if they were able to purchase customer lists and buy established clientelle. Then they would own the market so completely that it would be very difficult for the current IG players to get their foothold back.

Regards,
Woodguy


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Re: Conspiracy Theory: Put on Your Tin Foil Hats [Re: mmbt0ne]
      #7532963 - 10/03/06 08:54 PM

Quote:

Quote:

New US based poker sites can give signup bonuses and rakeback deals and comp points you can redeem at the live casinos




::SWOON::




there is a whole lot of dumb in this thread.

people keep saying that "US based online sites could do X and Y and Z" without realizing that there would be extreme regulations on what they could and could not offer.

Look at Sweden's state run poker room as an example:

You can play only limited hours per day, and there are NO bonuses or rakeback allowed. Does that sounds like free hotel rooms to you?


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