Terms & Conditions

Internet Magazine

Non–US new players
Get five 2+2 books


Order Books
Book Translations
Forum Login
 
 
Expand All   Collapse All

 Two Plus Two 
2+2 Magazine Forum
Special Sklansky Forum
2+2 Pokercast
About the Forums

 General Poker Discussion 
Beginners Questions
Books and Publications
Televised Poker
News, Views, and Gossip
Brick and Mortar
Home Poker
Beats, Brags, and Variance
Poker Theory
Poker Legislation

 Coaching/Training 
StoxPoker
DeucesCracked

 German Forums 
Poker Allgemein
Strategie: Holdem NL cash
Strategie: Sonstige
Internet/Online
BBV
Small Talk
German Poker News

 French Forums 
Forum francophone
Strategie
BBV (French)

 Limit Texas Hold'em 
High Stakes Limit
Medium Stakes Limit
Small Stakes Limit
Micro Stakes Limit
Mid-High Short-handed
Small Stakes Shorthanded
Limit––>NL

 PL/NL Texas Hold'em 
High Stakes
Medium Stakes
Small Stakes
Micro Stakes
Small-High Full Ring
Micro Full Ring

 Tournament Poker 
Small Stakes MTT
High Stakes MTT
MTT Community
STT Strategy
Tournament Circuit

 Other Poker 
Omaha/8
Omaha High
Stud
Heads Up Poker
Other Poker Games

 General Gambling 
Probability
Psychology
Sports Betting
Other Gambling Games
Entertainment Betting

 Internet Gambling 
Internet Gambling
Internet Bonuses
Affiliates/RakeBack
Software

 2+2 Communities 
Other Other Topics
The Lounge: Discussion+Review
El Diablo's General Discussion
BBV4Life

 Other Topics 
Golf
Sporting Events
Politics
Business, Finance, and Investing
Travel
Science, Math, and Philosophy
Health and Fitness
Student Life
Puzzles and Other Games
Video Games
Laughs or Links!
Computer Technical Help
Sponsored Support Forums
RakebackNetwork
RakeReduction.com
Other Links
Books
Authors
Abbreviations
Calendar
Order Books
Books by Others
Favorite Links
Feedback
Advertising Information
Home
Posting Hints
Privacy Notice
Forum Archives

The 2+2 Forums

Before using this Forum, please refer to the Terms and Conditions (Last modified: 2/26/2006)

Be sure to read the   Two Plus Two Internet Magazine

This is an archive. The main forums are here

These forums are read only.


 
UBB.threads™ Groupee, Inc.

PL/NL Texas Hold'em >> Small Stakes

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | (show all)
rakemeplz
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 02/14/06
Posts: 1803
Loc: +ev grimmstar bux vs everyone
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: Osprey]
      #8822705 - 01/18/07 11:08 PM

bumped 1 last time

I think OP missed gutshot plus pair draws which are more infrequent than OESD but about as good. Excellent post though.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HebbNH
stranger


Reged: 06/15/06
Posts: 21
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: rakemeplz]
      #8872905 - 01/23/07 01:16 AM

Quote:

bumped 1 last time.




I'll give it one more. Not sure how I missed this until now. Very useful info. Thanks.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
roll
member


Reged: 06/29/05
Posts: 140
Loc: chasing the cool
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: Osprey]
      #10827845 - 06/18/07 12:08 AM

This thread owns.

Quote:



I don't think it makes a huge difference.
Let's take a best case scenario

Let's assume 100% continuation bets and $100 stacks.
Raiser pops it to $4, you call in position with your suited connector.
You flop a 12 outer. Pot is $10 to the flop heads up
Preflop raiser leads out for $10, You raise to $40
Just to be arbitrary lets say it's 40% that the raiser has a hand worth pursuing and will eventually get it in with you on the flop or turn (argue with me if I'm horribly wrong here in my assumption)

Assumption 1: he folds, you win 16 dollars 60% of the time.

Assumption 2- he wants to get it in with you- let's say you have 55% equity with your 12+ out draw in these cases
So you win $102 55% of the time= $56.1
You lose $100 45% of the time= $45
So 40% of the time you're +$11.10
so you win $14.04 on average with my assumptions when you flop a big draw that you'd be willing to felt with these better assumptions.

According to the original calculations, you flop your big draw about 7% of the times, which is 13:1. So, if you're calling a raise with these hands 13x-$4, -42 + 1 hand when you flop your draw and make $14.4 on average, so even with better assumptions, you're still losing quite a bit of money. It seems to be a lose lose situation if you call with these cards and your opponent folds immediately or gets you all in as the only 2 options- it really seems to me like they need to make big, incorrect folds. Or there needs to be multiway padding in the pot.






But the problem with this post is that there are huge, gaping holes in your EV calculation.

Sure 1 in 14 times you flop a combo draw and that adds $14.4 that will be averaged over 14 scnarios, but what about the other 13 scenarios when you dont flop the combo draw?

Sometimes you will flop a pair, 2 pair, a regular flush or straight draw, trips, quads, broadway, royal, etc...

These non-combo draw scenarios need to be considered as you will be stacking sets and overpairs in some of them (as well as getting stacked once in a while and taking down small pots sometimes too).

So the situation is drastically more complex than you've shown it to be, and the EV is much higher than you've shown it to be.

If anyone is interested in a mathematical analysis similar to this one that includes the missing scenarios just respond and you shall recieve.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlyingStart
old hand


Reged: 04/09/05
Posts: 1188
Loc: Norway
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: roll]
      #12439584 - 10/10/07 08:04 AM

OP, do you have the numbers for a gutshot or better ? that would be one pair hands and gutshot added without counting twice

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
kozyanski
stranger


Reged: 10/04/07
Posts: 2
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: FlyingStart]
      #12441455 - 10/10/07 12:05 PM

Chances of hitting gutshot (and only gutshot) on flop:

Let's say you are holding A2. Flops that give you gutshot should contain 3 & 4, 3 & 5 or 4 & 5. If the flop contains 3 & 4 it shouldn't contain 5 and if it contains 3 & 5 it shouldn't contain 4 but if it contains 4 & 5 it could contain also 3. In that way we avoid double counting. And you also don't want to hit a pair (at least not yet - we'll look at it later) so you don't fancy flops with A or 2. All the possible ways of getting 3 & 4 on flop are:

  • 3 4 x
  • 3 x 4
  • 4 3 x
  • 4 x 3

  • x 3 4
  • x 4 3


x in the first four flops shouldn't be 3 or 4 just to avoid double counting.

Flop | cards you don't want* | number of cards that you don't want

3, 4 A, 2, 5; 3, 4 3*4 + 2*3 = 18
3, 5 A, 2, 4; 3, 5 3*4 + 2*3 = 18
4, 5 A, 2; 4, 5 2*4 + 2*3 = 14

Formula:

p(n) = 2*(4/50 * 4/49 * (48 - n)/48) + 2*(4/50 * (49 - n)/49 * 4/48) + 2*((50-n)/50 * 4/49 * 4/48)

where n stands for the number of cards that you don't want.

Therefore the probability for hitting a gutshot (and only gutshot) with A2 is:

pg = 2*p(18) + p(14) =~ 7,92%


Probability of flopping a pair or better (including gutshot) is:

pp = 2*(3/50 + 3/49 + 3/48) =~ 36,74%

Probability p of hitting gutshot or better is:

p = pp + pg

In this case p =~ 45%


* How to determine the cards you don't want?
First you should write down all of the two cards that help you, starting with lowest two. If you hold for example 98 those cards would be

5 & 6, 5 & 7, 6 & 7, 6 & T, 7 & T, 7 & J, T & J, T & Q, J & Q

You obviously don't want 8 or 9 becouse it would give you a pair which is already counted in pp.
Now start with 5 & 6 and look at all of the other "good two cards" containing either 5 or 6, those are 5 & 7, 6 & 7 and 6 & T. 7 and T are cards you don't want.
5 & 7: The list of other good two cards that contain 5 or 7 is: 5 & 6, 6 & 7, 7 & T and 7 & J, bad cards are 6, T and J.
6 & 7: 5 & 6, 5 & 7, 6 & T, 7 & T, 7 & J but the bad cards are only T and J. 5 is not a bad card becouse in the previous two steps we eliminated flops containing 5, 6 and 7 so we should coun't it now.

And so on

It's really not so complicated as it seems.

Hope it helps!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Dr_Jeckyl_00
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 01/21/05
Posts: 2136
Loc: CT: $25NL, $27 MTT
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: maxtower]
      #12483378 - 10/13/07 08:33 AM

Quote:

After reading goofy's analysis, it looks like you can profitably play suited connectors 45s - JTs with the 5/10 rule considering the implied odds.
One issue at hand is that the 5/10 rule assumes a reasonble chance you'll net an opponent's stack when you hit your hand. This is fine for the made hands because all of them are beating an over pair. The combo draws are not as good because if you push and your opponent folds, you are getting the correct implied odds to call preflop with the 5/10 rule in the first place. If you push and he calls, you'll hit your hand around 50-60% of the time. With the money already in the pot and the fold equity you might have, going all in with a combo draw is a fine play, however I question whether you have the correct implied odds preflop to get yourself into that situation. There is some math that needs to be worked out here, but it appears suited connectors are not as easy a call as pocket pairs using the 5/10 rule.
A good play may be to call with these in position only. That gives you an added advantage when your opponent checks the flop to you.




what is the 5/10 rule ?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Chaos_ult
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 12/18/03
Posts: 2253
Loc: Non Serviam
Re: Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math) [Re: Dr_Jeckyl_00]
      #12705292 - 10/28/07 03:30 PM

Bump because I don't think anyone has addressed the fact that you can win the pot without flopping anything. For example, lots of players who check out of position with initiative are weak 100% of the time (along the same lines you can try raising A high boards etc etc). Shouldn't this be included somewhere?

Edit: apologize if someone has already asked this, I didn't read the whole thread.

Edited by Chaos_ult (10/28/07 03:36 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 23 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  Isura, orange, ajmargarine, 4_2_it, Matt Flynn, Sunny Mehta, Mike Haven 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 8156

Rate this topic

Jump to

contact us 2+2 Publishing

Powered by UBB.threads™ 6.5.5


Message Boards and Forums Directory

Pages provided by ConJelCo