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General Gambling >> Sports Betting

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jaffa
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 05/15/05
Posts: 1789
Loc: Gloucester, UK

I am a newb: Are these arbs?
#6740064 - 07/31/06 10:42 AM

I'm just becoming interested in sports betting and have been reading this forum and some other sites and am slowly begining to understand it. It seems to me, that finding arbs/scalps (is there a difference?) is one of the surest ways to guarentee a profit, or at least Break even.

Anyway, just so i know if i'm on the right track, are these two scenarios arbs?

Real Life Example 1

I go onto oddschecker.com and look under tennis. I see that Kenneth Carlsen is playing Danai Udomchoke. I know very little about tennis and nothing about these players, but i see that sportingodds is offering -125 for Carlsen whilst Pinnacle is offering +134 for Udomchoke. Surely i cannot lose if i bet on both of these?

Real Life Example 2

Again on oddschecker i look under boxing, again, i know nothing about boxing. I see that in a fight between Barrera and Juarez i can get -138 for Barrera from Extrabet and +150 on Juarez at Bet365. However they are also offering +1800 on it being a draw. Does the small chance of it being a draw negate the arb possibility? When looking for arbs should i only be looking at sports where it can only be a win/lose situation?

Are these the kind of things you search for? Or are you more often looking for soft lines?

One final question, how do you know when a line is soft? Is that just down to handicapping and knowing the sport/teams.

Thanks in advance.

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Ortho
old hand

Reged: 06/20/05
Posts: 1080
Loc: Enfield TA

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: jaffa]
#6740213 - 07/31/06 10:59 AM

1. Yes, this is an arb. In tennis specifically, but in all sports you must read the rules, however. If Book A says that all wagers stand after the first serve of the match, and Book B says that two sets must be completed for action, you're left holding the bag if one of the players retires with an injury in the first set. Be wary of this and always read the rules.

2. You have to look at the specific sports book on this. If Book A is offering a two-way market, you will usually have a push and get your stake back if it's a draw. If Book B has a 3-way market, you lose if it's a draw. Again, you have to make sure that you have every possible outcome covered. Assuming that these are both 3-way markets, you have +1800 (5.26%), -138 (58%), and +150 (40%). That adds to 98% without the draw, but 103.26% with the draw, so you no longer have a profitable arb because the book you're making to cover all the possibilities is over-round and you will lose money betting on all 3.

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CMHPokerMike
journeyman

Reged: 02/23/05
Posts: 89

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Ortho]
#6750988 - 08/01/06 01:38 AM

Just curious, are arbs of much value (given the low spread in the example provided) other than as a way of clearing a bonus risk-free? Looks like your optimal situation is about 1.75% profit, or $3.50 on $200 of action.

Or is my whole mindset wrong here and is 1.75% definite profit a goldmine and I just don't get it because I'm doing $5 baseball bets. ;-)

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Performify
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 08/03/04
Posts: 3847
Loc: Sports Betting forum

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: CMHPokerMike]
#6751031 - 08/01/06 01:44 AM

1.75% profit per day is a nice chunk of change if you're getting that on an extremely large bankroll, obviously. Unfortunately there are limits that keep us from having too much in play, and there aren't generally big arbs every day either.

Arbs can be profitable for sure outside of just clearing a bonus, but they generally require a lot of work to stay on top of.

in my opinion they should be a part of any sports bettor's toolbox obviously, but its pretty tough to rely just on arbs as a primary means of making money.

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Thremp
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 11/27/05
Posts: 10163
Loc: Free Kyleb

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Performify]
#6751272 - 08/01/06 02:15 AM

Quote:

in my opinion they should be a part of any sports bettor's toolbox obviously, but its pretty tough to rely just on arbs as a primary means of making money.

This is just jealousy.

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Performify
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 08/03/04
Posts: 3847
Loc: Sports Betting forum

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Thremp]
#6751304 - 08/01/06 02:21 AM

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CMHPokerMike
journeyman

Reged: 02/23/05
Posts: 89

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Performify]
#6751411 - 08/01/06 02:38 AM

Thanks for the explanation!

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Homer
HEDGING IS -EV

Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 13831
Loc: done

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: CMHPokerMike]
#6752556 - 08/01/06 07:39 AM

Quote:

Just curious, are arbs of much value (given the low spread in the example provided) other than as a way of clearing a bonus risk-free? Looks like your optimal situation is about 1.75% profit, or $3.50 on $200 of action.

Why stop at $200 of action?

Arbs can be very profitable, bonuses or no bonuses. But it is very time-consuming and I imagine would be a very frustrating/boring way for most people to make a living.

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Thremp
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 11/27/05
Posts: 10163
Loc: Free Kyleb

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Homer]
#6753376 - 08/01/06 10:12 AM

If you wanna become a trader where they lock you in a room with a computer and let you trade for 8 hours in a dungeon. Arbing might be a great way to see if you like it.

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ItalianFX
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 11/13/05
Posts: 4808
Loc: 3 Weeks to Freedom

Re: I am a newb: Are these arbs? [Re: Thremp]
#6758466 - 08/01/06 05:01 PM

Is this an arb here:

Pinnacle has Detroit Tigers at -218
Bowmans.com has the Devil Rays at +220

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