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PL/NL Texas Hold'em >> High Stakes

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samoleus
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Reged: 02/13/06
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32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had!
      #5582896 - 04/25/06 11:16 PM

I contemplated not sending this hand for fear that it will give away too much. But what the heck. This hand was from a couple of months ago. The stage is set for some high drama. Bld and I both have enormous stacks in the 2K 6-max game. Bld has just under 16K and I have 23K. We are across the table from each other and while we are sort of running over the table, we are fighting each other hard for the table captaincy.

Some background for those of you that are not familiar with Bld's game. He is in my opinion my toughest opponent on Party and by a pretty wide margin at that. Exceptional hand reader, courageous bluffer, can make huge calls with thin holdings and can also lay down huge hands (important fact when considering this hand). He plays almost (but not quite) as LAG as I do. So we've gone to battle quite a few times with quirky hands flopping pairs and gutshots vs goofy two pairs and stuff. While we have played huge pots against each other a number of times in the past(often with marginal holdings, draws, and bluffs), we have not tangled in a huge pot in this session yet.

UTG (about 2K to start the hand) limps. BLd limps in second position. It folds to me in the cutoff, and I raise to 65 with 8 6 . Blinds fold and limpers call.

Flop is 7 5 2 . UTG bets only 60 into a pot of about 225. Bld calls the 60. I raise to 190. UTG folds. Bld raises to 600. I lick my chops. I am hoping he has the set he is representing (certainly the cold call, followed by a reraise of the preflop raiser is a really powerful move). Bld is capable of making that move with a pair plus draw type hand; however, the fact that the flop was a rainbow is a HUGE consideration. That rules out a lot of pair+flush draw hands. Now I imagine he might have a hand like 7-6 or something, but a set is definitely more likely here. I actually hope he has a set, because if I hit my hand, it will be totally disguised. I am dreaming of my soon-to-be 39K stack when my straight hits. I call.

Turn is J . Bld fires 1350 into the pot of about 1500. Man, he sure is not letting me draw for cheap. Of course, this would normally be a routine fold. But the implied odds are huge. He must have a set here. Pair+gutshot is looking less and less likely. Again I reiterate that there was no flush draw on the flop. It must be a set. I call.

I can FEEL the 9 or the 4 coming on the river. There it is .... NO - it the A . Damn. All I have is 8 high. There is 4200 in the pot. BLD bets 3800.

I check my poker hands rankings card to make sure that a set beats 8 high. It does. Sadly, I move my hand to fold. ... But then it just hits me! What did I play my hand like I am holding? ... Before I answer, consider of course, that Bld still has about 9.5K behind after his river bet. Well, I raised two limpers preflop. There was a bet and a call on the flop - and I raised that! Then I called a third reraise. I followed that with a $1350 call on the turn. ... Why, I must have AA or JJ!! I check my poker hand rankings card again, and it says that AAA and JJJ both beat 777, 555, and 222.

The stack size is PERFECT. The opponent is perfect. As strong as he is, I believe Bld can absolutely fold a set if he thinks he is beaten here (one of a very very few players that I'd try that against - especially with such an aggressive player as myself).

My clock ticks down. I time out on my other tables. I think about whether or not I should pull the trigger on this one. Cojones is not the issue: if I feel it is plus EV, I will make the move. I think about showing this hand after he folds and try to envision the folk songs that will be written about me and this hand. I think about how I will come across on ESPN's "The Best Hand I Ever Played"

Tick, tick, tick, 5, 4, 3, ... you guys pull the trigger or not?

P.S.: Bld, do you remember this hand? Don't say anything until we get some responses if you do. But I am curious if you remember it. It must be about 6 weeks old.


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snagglepuss
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5582962 - 04/25/06 11:21 PM



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Jason Strasser (strassa2)
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5582977 - 04/25/06 11:22 PM

if im bld, JJJ is incredibly unlikely for u... and so is the fact that you'd time that low with aaa

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whitelime
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5582994 - 04/25/06 11:23 PM

Aren't you more likely to have 34 here than AA?

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NLSoldier
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583008 - 04/25/06 11:25 PM

sam,

I love your posts. I hope you pulled the trigger!


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jason Strasser (strassa2)]
      #5583014 - 04/25/06 11:25 PM

strassa, that (the amount of time that I took to decide) was a HUGE factor tilting my decision towards a fold. I haven't said that I folded, but I can say that if I had made my decision within 10-15 seconds, I move all-in for sure. The time I took evened out the decision for me.

Can you expand on why JJJ is so unlikely? He would not expect me to be so loose on the flop?


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Requin
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: whitelime]
      #5583028 - 04/25/06 11:26 PM

Quote:

Aren't you more likely to have 34 here than AA?



I was wondering the same thing.


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Jeff W
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583051 - 04/25/06 11:28 PM

Once you take all that time to act, I'd fold it. If you had a strong hand you probably would have acted sooner, right? Also, I think 43s or AA makes more sense for you than JJ here.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Requin]
      #5583052 - 04/25/06 11:28 PM

Hehe you guys are hitting on another point that I kind of intentionally neglected to mention. What about HIM having 3-4?

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citanul
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583059 - 04/25/06 11:29 PM

This hand is very interesting I think but I am confused as to how one can have a pair and a gutshot on a 752 board.

citanul


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NLSoldier
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Requin]
      #5583076 - 04/25/06 11:30 PM

sam,

If villian has a set, and you think your hand looks just like AA, is there any chance he would not make such a big bet on the river?

This actually has me thinking about the possibility that HE is bluffing with 86 or 64...


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: citanul]
      #5583096 - 04/25/06 11:31 PM

Haha good catch citanul. In actuality, I really did not consider much other than a set for him. And it didn't matter that much becase my 8 high doesn't have any showdown value no matter what he has.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: NLSoldier]
      #5583108 - 04/25/06 11:32 PM

I don't think he would really put me on AAA until and unless I pull the trigger. Too many other hands I can have (two pair, straight draw, KK, etc)

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Requin
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583132 - 04/25/06 11:34 PM

Sam, do you think Bld would bet this river with 22 or 55?

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NLSoldier
something about how awesome i run NOT


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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583138 - 04/25/06 11:35 PM

Quote:

I don't think he would really put me on AAA until and unless I pull the trigger. Too many other hands I can have (two pair, straight draw, KK, etc)




even for someone as LAG as you, its pretty hard to make 2 pair on that board. As far as KK, seems like he would bet a little less on the river if he was trying to entice a call. I guess he can have you on 22 or 55 though if he has 77.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Requin]
      #5583142 - 04/25/06 11:35 PM

absolutely. Bld is not the type to leave value on the table. He could fold that to a raise though if he can be convinced that I have 77, JJ, AA, or 3-4.

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Jason Strasser (strassa2)
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583199 - 04/25/06 11:38 PM

he would expect u to raise turn a huge amt of the time with jj and these stacks.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jason Strasser (strassa2)]
      #5583248 - 04/25/06 11:41 PM

A very good point Jason. The stack sizes were deep enough there (and two to a backdoor flush in addition to the straight draw had arrived). I will often slowplay JJJ on the turn in a situation like this, but the stacks were too deep for that here.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: NLSoldier]
      #5583275 - 04/25/06 11:42 PM

well I had 8-6. Could I not have 7-5?

And I don't think Bld's style is to make smaller milking bets. He keeps his bet sizes pretty standard which make them harder to read.

I do the same thing. You will hardly ever see me bet less than 2/3 of the pot or more than 4/5 (usually 3/4) no matter what I am betting.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jason Strasser (strassa2)]
      #5583355 - 04/25/06 11:48 PM

Strassa, if you hold 77 in Bld's spot and I push, do you make the call? What if you have 22? (you can answer in both cases: a quick push and using my whole time bank).

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Jason Strasser (strassa2)
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583366 - 04/25/06 11:49 PM

in your general thought process, you are disregarding the option that bld has nothing here. when you are talking about implied odds and stuff, especially.

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Jeff W
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583405 - 04/25/06 11:51 PM

Quote:

Hehe you guys are hitting on another point that I kind of intentionally neglected to mention. What about HIM having 3-4?




Isn't he more likely to have a set than 43s(or 64s, 86s)? He's very aggro so I'd expect he's more likely to raise those and overlimp the small pairs.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jason Strasser (strassa2)]
      #5583412 - 04/25/06 11:52 PM

While that is a salient point, I was convinced by the turn that he had a real hand. I was about 70% sure that he had a set. Would you not be more or less convinced of that by his play to that point?

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jeff W]
      #5583437 - 04/25/06 11:54 PM

Hmm I don't know about that Jeff. I think Bld is MORE likely to raise a pair against a limper and limp with 3-4 or 86.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583459 - 04/25/06 11:56 PM

pull the trigger or not?
You may choose only one
Yes
No


Votes accepted from (04/25/06 11:55 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



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Number27
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583694 - 04/26/06 12:17 AM

I voted no for the aforemention lack of time. I think you're moving AAA much quicker than you did. (or did not.)

Either way, while I realize that Bld is capable of laying down sets if he thinks they're beat I wonder how often he's going to lay down 55 or 77 in this situation. You're betting $9,000 into an $8,000 pot so wouldn't he have to fold slightly more than one time out of two to make this play profitable?

I don't know if he lays down 77 that often given the action.


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radiaL
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583766 - 04/26/06 12:22 AM

sam,

I must commend you for taking the time and effort that obviously goes into making your posts. I hope you know that the insight that you so selflessly give out does not go unappreciated. Thanks for making these forums a better place.

-radiaL


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: radiaL]
      #5583864 - 04/26/06 12:29 AM

appreciate that radial!

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KRANTZ
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583907 - 04/26/06 12:33 AM

what is bld's limping range? does he even have a limping range? is he capable of playing JJ or AA like this? something smells weird with his turn AND river bets - what does he expect you to call with?

i think bld is an opponent very capable of limping to rep a low pocket pair and playing a flop like this EXACTLY like he has a set. that, combined with the strange turn/river aggression makes me feel like this should be a push, without the timing tell

this is such a crazy hand


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Allinlife
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5583934 - 04/26/06 12:35 AM

I say pull the trigger for % of telling a SICK hand story.

however, I just can't justify trying to represent overset to bluff out what appears as an underset. I just never met anyone who folds them.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Allinlife]
      #5583962 - 04/26/06 12:37 AM

Like I said, there are very few players that I would try this again. However, Bld is one who CAN fold an underset IF he thinks he is beaten.

The problems are:

(1) will he be convinced that a set is no good if I push

(2) might he have 3-4?


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yvesaint
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5584000 - 04/26/06 12:40 AM

i think

1. the fact that you took so long on the river. maybe you do w/AA cause of the possible straight, but who knows.

2. possibility of 34

3. he is still getting like 2:1 odds....


make this a no go


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aejones



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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5584151 - 04/26/06 12:54 AM

Deep Stack poker = great.

I push: that's just an unbelievable play and read, but given that deep of stacks, I honestly can't imagine him calling with 555 or 222; I highly doubt he has 34, if he does, and he made that huge turn bet with it, tip your hat to him. I think he might call with 777, but seriously- why would you want to play a pot this big unless you had the goods?

Yes, it looks like you have AAA or 34, and maybe even JJJ. Honestly, I think on that river push, you have the straight, three jacks, or three aces about 80ish% of the time.

Air the other 20ish%, he almost certainly can't beat anything you can value bet, only air.


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diddle
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5584557 - 04/26/06 01:31 AM

I pull the trigger so I can post this and find out if I made Bld a set.

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KaneKungFu123
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: aejones]
      #5584604 - 04/26/06 01:36 AM

how do you play AA on the turn?

what hands does he normally limp call with? Stacks are very deep, have you considered that he could have AA?

How often does he have nothing?

What hand does he expect you to call with on the river?

I lean towards folding.


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Apathy
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: KaneKungFu123]
      #5584682 - 04/26/06 01:42 AM

You think he would over limp and then call to close the action in a three way pot with AA. I don't buy it KKF.

I would be pretty worried about 34 from bld, or him not folding a smaller set especially with the time you took.


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LB_001
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5584997 - 04/26/06 02:15 AM

I'd call and hope he shows 64, then it'd really be the best hand ever, if not oh well its just 3 buyins right?

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DOTTT
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585174 - 04/26/06 02:32 AM

Nice post Sam.

You say you guys have logged a lot of hours togather, so he knows how you play your big pairs pretty well. Do you never fold AA to him on the turn? I think he's gonna have a hard time putting you on AA here.


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amoeba
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585263 - 04/26/06 02:41 AM

why would he bet the river for 3800?

he doesn't expect you to call with kk, QQ does he?

and certainly you aren't calling his flop bet raise with overcards right?


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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585288 - 04/26/06 02:43 AM

Was $65 a standard bet for you here? When you bet $65 pre and had your hand shown down what was the strength of the hand in previous hands that Bld might have seen. Thing is this, AAA is out of the question because of how long you took. I think he can put you on JJJ here but what percent of the time will he do so and how often does he fold a set? If he flopped a set he played it extremely quickly. Wouldn't be surprised if he had air here.

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amoeba
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585300 - 04/26/06 02:44 AM

hey sam,

I know you put him on set on turn, so what do you think about push overbetting the turn?


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yvesaint
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: obvvvv]
      #5585320 - 04/26/06 02:47 AM

Quote:

Was $65 a standard bet for you here? When you bet $65 pre and had your hand shown down what was the strength of the hand in previous hands that Bld might have seen. Thing is this, AAA is out of the question because of how long you took. I think he can put you on JJJ here but what percent of the time will he do so and how often does he fold a set? If he flopped a set he played it extremely quickly. Wouldn't be surprised if he had air here.




65 is pretty standard for sam pf here


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luckychewy
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: amoeba]
      #5585343 - 04/26/06 02:49 AM

Quote:

hey sam,

I know you put him on set on turn, so what do you think about push overbetting the turn?




I think he'd be more inclined to call since a combo draw is more likely than a set. As played I think it's gonna be hard to sell AA/34 and especially JJ here. I like folding, but if you shove the FE you have coupled with the fact he actually doesn't have anything are pretty good because I think his flop 3-bet is sketchy and DOESN'T represent a set. Still, I would fold.


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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: yvesaint]
      #5585350 - 04/26/06 02:49 AM

Ok ty...the possibility of him having nothing here makes the EV of this move greater. Putting that into consideration I actually like a push.

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LegallyBlind
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: obvvvv]
      #5585452 - 04/26/06 03:02 AM

Im pretty suprised that so many people think Bld's decision to make a 5 buy in river call will be decided by the amount of time it takes Sam to act. If so many of you feel that running down your timer is going be the difference in your opponent calling or folding, I hope your running it down evertime your begging for a call on the river.

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Subfallen
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: LegallyBlind]
      #5585512 - 04/26/06 03:11 AM

Quote:

Im pretty suprised that so many people think Bld's decision to make a 5 buy in river call will be decided by the amount of time it takes Sam to act. If so many of you feel that running down your timer is going be the difference in your opponent calling or folding, I hope your running it down evertime your begging for a call on the river.




Yes, I hardly dare say, for fear it's completely stupid---but isn't Bld just as likely to take the long pause as a reverse tell as a true one?


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KRANTZ
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Subfallen]
      #5585543 - 04/26/06 03:15 AM

his flop call/3-bet do represent a set, but combined with his turn/river action (what does he realistically expect you to call with if he's betting so hard?) do not

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cardsharkk04
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: LegallyBlind]
      #5585573 - 04/26/06 03:20 AM

Quote:

Im pretty suprised that so many people think Bld's decision to make a 5 buy in river call will be decided by the amount of time it takes Sam to act. If so many of you feel that running down your timer is going be the difference in your opponent calling or folding, I hope your running it down evertime your begging for a call on the river.




When people have the nuts, or close to it there is just a natural tendency to get it all in the pot relatively quickly. Waiting till the timer goes down implies thinking, which is something you don't have to do much of when you know your hand is good. Just looks fishy.


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EmpireMaker2
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585641 - 04/26/06 03:30 AM

The only thing that makes sense is if you had AA.......

You would of raised the turn with JJ, and the flop or turn with the straight.....


I just don't see this bluff working if you know he has a set.


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yvesaint
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: EmpireMaker2]
      #5585660 - 04/26/06 03:33 AM

Quote:

and the flop or turn with the straight.....






um dude no possible straight on flop/turn


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MDMA
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: EmpireMaker2]
      #5585676 - 04/26/06 03:36 AM

I agree with strasser that you could almost never try to represent JJ here due to turn action. I'm also wondering whether bld would really believe that you could AA here. He surely is aware of what line he has taken and what he represents; would he really believe you would call AA that often on turn, setting yourself up for a 4k call on river that pretty much only beats air (68,46)? As played, AA isn't that much stronger than any other one pair hand since, as already stated, you only beat a bluff basicxally. I think you have to take that into consideration at least, although I may be wrong. I find it unlikely he would believe you to call turn just so you could do, in this situation, a heroic call on the river w/ AA. I think your best chance would have been to represent 34 here, but as you took too much time to be believable, I think you should fold.

Edited by MDMA (04/26/06 03:47 AM)


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PokerJokerAA
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: MDMA]
      #5585743 - 04/26/06 03:45 AM

I just call here and watch the chips slide to me as he flips over 4-6.

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Lyric
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5585926 - 04/26/06 04:10 AM

Bld has a set or 34. Combined with the possibility that he may call with 77 or 55 here, pulling the trigger seems a bad plan. It also seems that you played your hand like AA, 77, 55, 22, 68, 46.

Bld is smart enough to put you on that range and will probably call with anything that beats it, however, you're probably raising a set on the flop or turn, including JJ, so that only leaves 68, 46, and AA.

The question is -- do you ever really play AA this way?


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HotPants
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5586290 - 04/26/06 05:16 AM

Quote:

I actually hope he has a set, because if I hit my hand, it will be totally disguised.




Since you raised preflop there's no way you can have 86? Is that what you thought he thunk?

If I had to guess, I would say build would have you on 86/64/34/22/55/AA/77. If I'm right, and build realizes you can play an OESD like this on the flop and turn, then I reckon it just comes down to a frequency thing, balancing your AA/34 with your air


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Jay.
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: obvvvv]
      #5586346 - 04/26/06 05:36 AM

I lean towards push, the timing down sucks but still possible, his river bet size is strange, feels like 68, also possible are 46, 89 43. i don't believe 77 or 55 all that much either. Never played against him but does he usually limp behind with 77/55? 77 i doubt, and then the strange sized river bet. All this is going in your favour. He could have nothing which he def folds and he could be big which he may fold.

Also, once you push and say he has 22, i doubt he would be expecting a move, your range is wide but the majority of your range are decent holdings, which he may think you may not bluff with here, kk for example. Plus, he may not expect a 12k move out of you with 68 that you may or may not have raised preflop.

This range feels mostly like 68 46 vs 34 which would make this +EV. Add in 22 AND he calls and it's still +EV.

The turn would have been the better spot to push him off the hands. Problem is you were too busy jerkin' over possibly making a straight.


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Dan Bitel
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jay.]
      #5586579 - 04/26/06 06:49 AM

Just a quick question, does bld's flop call/raise actually show as much strength as every1 is saying? I've not seen you play before Sam (I play MUCH lower), but from what I read, after raising preflop, aren't you very likely to raise the flop here with a very wide range of hands, especially as UTG's lead was so weak. So could bld not be making a kind of squeeze type play on the flop?

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Nielsio
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5586864 - 04/26/06 08:08 AM

You've got 1 buy-in invested. No way you should gamle 7 buyins more on a hand where both your holdings can be pretty wide.

For one thing it's pretty hard to represent some exact hands. And another thing: his turn bet could be a semi-bluff with 34 .


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Prevaricator
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Nielsio]
      #5586941 - 04/26/06 08:26 AM

Quote:

You've got 1 buy-in invested.




wtf does it matter how much he has put in. the pot is big, so can a push win it enough of the time to be +EV is how you should be thinking.


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Nielsio
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Prevaricator]
      #5587116 - 04/26/06 09:03 AM

Quote:

Quote:

You've got 1 buy-in invested.




wtf does it matter how much he has put in. the pot is big, so can a push win it enough of the time to be +EV is how you should be thinking.




I know this ofcourse, but I meant to say that this might not be a very good spot for the move and that he can get away relatively cheap.


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durrrr
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Prevaricator]
      #5587453 - 04/26/06 09:55 AM

I dunno if i like this. Its the kind of spot where i'd wish i could freeze time and think about if for a few hours then decide what to do. Instead you have 60seconds. I'll shove here a lot- but bld isnt the best opponent to do it against. Imo a shove is probably slightly -EV in this particular hand... but still a good play...

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: LB_001]
      #5587553 - 04/26/06 10:06 AM

actually it would be eight buyins

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Firebirdflush
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: durrrr]
      #5587587 - 04/26/06 10:09 AM

well dont keep us in suspense, what happened? timeout?

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Prevaricator]
      #5587615 - 04/26/06 10:12 AM

exactly - the only issue is whether or not the push is plus EV. The number of buyins/amount of money invested is purely immaterial. You should stop thinking this way if you want to be a good player.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: amoeba]
      #5587643 - 04/26/06 10:14 AM

stacks are much too deep to push the turn. It would be a bet of 13K into a pot of 4.2K. And I would not want to raise less and get reraise/pushed while I still have a live draw.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Jay.]
      #5587663 - 04/26/06 10:16 AM

"The turn would have been the better spot to push him off the hands. Problem is you were too busy jerkin' over possibly making a straight. "

Very wrong in my opinion. Stacks are too deep for me to push. If I raise and he reraises, I love my draw. Raising the turn would be a big mistake.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Dan Bitel]
      #5587671 - 04/26/06 10:17 AM

a very good point dbitel. however, I don't think he follows up on the turn and river so hard very often on air.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: obvvvv]
      #5587678 - 04/26/06 10:17 AM

by the river, there is very little chance that Bld has nothing. There is a possibility though but small enough to be more or less neglected.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: cardsharkk04]
      #5587688 - 04/26/06 10:18 AM

I will not act instantly with a huge hand, but I also won't let it run down to 2 seconds.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Subfallen]
      #5587695 - 04/26/06 10:19 AM

not out of the question (and I did consider that)

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: KRANTZ]
      #5587702 - 04/26/06 10:19 AM

Bld will bet hard with a hand like a set, knowing that I have made thin calls against him before.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: amoeba]
      #5587716 - 04/26/06 10:20 AM

if I believed KK or QQ were good, the ace on the river would not have changed my mind. Bld is not the type to pussyfoot with his bet sizes regardless of the strength of his holding.

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duh
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5587729 - 04/26/06 10:21 AM



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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: DOTTT]
      #5587740 - 04/26/06 10:22 AM

I will play AA the same way about 60% of the time, folding the other 40% to his turn bet. If the flop was two-toned (ie more likely he had some kind of draw), I play it that way 90% of the time.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: EmpireMaker2]
      #5587748 - 04/26/06 10:22 AM

There was no possible straight until the river.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Apathy]
      #5587757 - 04/26/06 10:23 AM

exactly - I think he has AA or JJ 0% of the time here.

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kotkis
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5587799 - 04/26/06 10:28 AM

samoleus,

My guess is that you are using threaded mode to read posts. May I suggest you try flat mode for a while and see if you like that better?


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MDMA
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5587859 - 04/26/06 10:34 AM

Given that flop texture is somewhat dry (e.g not two-toned), how often is bld following up with a second barrel but shutting down on river (on most cards), this will greatly effect whether calling turn with AA is a good call. If he will very often fire a 3-rd barrel, are you you comfortable calling with AA 60% of the time on turn given that you're prone to be calling another ~4k on river? Since his range will almost never be another overpair/something he would valuebet river with that is worse than AA, AA isn't much stronger than any other bluffcatcher in this spot, right? I'm of course with you that had the board been two-tone it's a whole 'nother ballgame alltogether.

Problem is of course if that we fold a hand as strong as AA here too often, his turnbet would become too much +ev with any two, which I'm guessing is why you would fold sometime and call sometime. If you do call, and if he's very often firing a 3rd bullet here, I'm guessing you're calling river as well a lot of those times (on most cards).

I could be wrong here, that's why I'm asking. :O

Edited by MDMA (04/26/06 10:42 AM)


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Thundercat_
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5587870 - 04/26/06 10:35 AM

since you took so long my guess is that when you push bld will get that 'feeling' you dont have it and it would be all over, better take the conservative route

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makalish
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Thundercat_]
      #5588427 - 04/26/06 11:22 AM

Alright samoleus, you've had your fun. Now please tell us how the hand went down.

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edge
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: makalish]
      #5588453 - 04/26/06 11:24 AM

I'm guessing he folded.

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GTL
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: edge]
      #5588486 - 04/26/06 11:27 AM

Is this all an elaborate plot to get bld to divulge what he was holding? If so, its a great idea, and well executed.

nh


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cantsitstillbr
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: GTL]
      #5588977 - 04/26/06 12:05 PM

My prediction:

Samoleus limped in second position, BLd raised with 8c6s.

BLd was the one who ended up pushing the river, and Samoleus folded the winning hand of 55. BLd shows his bluff.


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Parlay Slow
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: cantsitstillbr]
      #5589473 - 04/26/06 12:43 PM

I got goosebumps and shuddered from head to toe

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KingNeo
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Parlay Slow]
      #5590913 - 04/26/06 02:14 PM

Pretty obvious from what was said in this thread that Sam folded the hand.

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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5591220 - 04/26/06 02:36 PM

With that in mind the question for you is whether or not you think you can lead him into believing you have JJJ by pushing. If you can, you also have to recognize the difficulty facing him laying down a set which he is clearing representing.

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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: cardsharkk04]
      #5591261 - 04/26/06 02:38 PM

exactly

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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5591269 - 04/26/06 02:38 PM

LOL

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obvvvv
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5591301 - 04/26/06 02:40 PM

Well yeah but how often does he believe you for these two holdings?

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ggbman
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: cantsitstillbr]
      #5591646 - 04/26/06 03:01 PM

Sam doesnt open limp.

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Masquerade
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5591721 - 04/26/06 03:06 PM

Your loose calls are predicated on the assumption that if u do hit the straight you can take all his chips (if he has a set). And yet now you're saying there's a fair chance he will fold a set if you bluff? Slight logical inconsistency here. If he folds here then why he isnt he also folding when you hit the straight? Or does he conveniently call when you have a hand?

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MYNAMEIZGREG
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: obvvvv]
      #5591774 - 04/26/06 03:10 PM

If you guys are getting all wrapped up on the timing "tell" here, I think one could make the argument that Sam could be running down the time purposely if he had the nuts. Bld knows Sam won't usually do this with the goods, and Sam knows Bld knows this. Therefore, Sam is doing it purposely, and Bld figures this out and folds because of the timer. So, IMO, it's a moot point. I think both players can think this high.

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amoeba
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Masquerade]
      #5592077 - 04/26/06 03:27 PM

Quote:

Your loose calls are predicated on the assumption that if u do hit the straight you can take all his chips (if he has a set). And yet now you're saying there's a fair chance he will fold a set if you bluff? Slight logical inconsistency here. If he folds here then why he isnt he also folding when you hit the straight? Or does he conveniently call when you have a hand?




because when the straight hits there are less likely oversets?


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Scuba Chuck
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5593473 - 04/26/06 04:42 PM

Quote:

not out of the question (and I did consider that)




Sam, I too enjoy your posts, for all the reasons given by others.

I also enjoy that you give responses to so many of the queries. If possible, it would be nice if you learned to use the "quote" link (which is right next to the "reply" link) so that I can tell who you are responding to. When using the quote link, it will populate the post like mine above showing what you are responding to. Thanks in advance.


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MilkMan
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Scuba Chuck]
      #5594925 - 04/26/06 06:02 PM

Sam,
Forgive me if I'm wrong but may I point out one slight inconsistency in your thinking in this hand. You take a relatively expensive draw on the flop and turn because of what you believe are the implied odds **I am dreaming of my soon-to-be 39K stack when my straight hits** in other words you are pretty sure you will stack BLD if a 9 or 4 hits. On the river the A shows up (which does complete a possible straight draw). And now you think he might fold his set? I understand the new possibility of specifically repping AAA, but has BLD's situation really changed so much that you can justify reversing your previously held belief during the hand that hitting the straight meant BLD would go broke here?

edit: doh just noticed masquerade made the same point about ten lines up

Edited by MilkMan (04/26/06 06:04 PM)


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luckychewy
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: MilkMan]
      #5594962 - 04/26/06 06:04 PM

If he makes the straight he might not shove, so $39K stack is probably a bit off.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Masquerade]
      #5595889 - 04/26/06 07:13 PM

Masquerade, it is not inconsistent at all. The operative point is that it was specifically an ace on the river. I would not dream of bluffing on any other card. I have played this hand very similarly to how I might have played AA.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: MilkMan]
      #5595958 - 04/26/06 07:18 PM

Milk Man, this thougth only crossed my mind because an ace hit the river. I have played this hand very similarly (if not identically) to how I might play AA. I would not think of bluffing any other card.

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: luckychewy]
      #5595967 - 04/26/06 07:19 PM

If I make the straight, BLD leads for 3800 and I do shove (or close to it for the extra 9).

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: MDMA]
      #5595999 - 04/26/06 07:22 PM

superb post MDMA. I can call the turn with AA and fold to one more river bet, as Bld will give up on a lot of bluffs after I call the turn.

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Marnixvdb
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: luckychewy]
      #5596107 - 04/26/06 07:31 PM

It seems that the biggest disadvantage of running your timer down in this situation, is that it gives Bld extra time to rethink his reaction to a raise.

This weakens the potential of your raise.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5596359 - 04/26/06 07:48 PM

Guys, sorry for the anticlimax, but I folded the hand. I figured that Bld would fold a set there about 50% of the time (more often 222, less often 777 of course), which makes it close to an even decision. However, there were two factors that tilted my decision towards a fold.

(1) there was a chance (I'd say about 10-15%) that HE had 3-4 himself.

(2) I let my time run all the way down before I made my decision. If I had acted even with 5 seconds left, he might be convinced into thinking that it was me putting on an act with the nuts. But I really waited until literally 1 or 2 seconds left. I thought that was too long.


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samoleus
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RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5596371 - 04/26/06 07:50 PM

Results in the previous post. I forgot to adjust the title ...

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NLSoldier
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Re: RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5596418 - 04/26/06 07:54 PM

Quote:

Results in the previous post. I forgot to adjust the title ...




sam,

try switching to flat mode.

awesome thread.


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PartyGirlUK
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Re: RESULTS [Re: NLSoldier]
      #5596460 - 04/26/06 07:58 PM

Why would you play AA like this but not, say, KK?

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tom441lbk
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Re: RESULTS [Re: PartyGirlUK]
      #5597390 - 04/26/06 09:22 PM

What hands do you call with here?

What hands do you push with here?


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mother_brain
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Re: RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5597827 - 04/26/06 10:00 PM

Fold Turn, LOL

Nice hand, I have often decided to not bet because I took longer than usual to type in the amount or think about it.


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diconoclastsx
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5597986 - 04/26/06 10:17 PM

Quote:

Guys, sorry for the anticlimax, but I folded the hand. I figured that Bld would fold a set there about 50% of the time (more often 222, less often 777 of course), which makes it close to an even decision. However, there were two factors that tilted my decision towards a fold.

(1) there was a chance (I'd say about 10-15%) that HE had 3-4 himself.

(2) I let my time run all the way down before I made my decision. If I had acted even with 5 seconds left, he might be convinced into thinking that it was me putting on an act with the nuts. But I really waited until literally 1 or 2 seconds left. I thought that was too long.




Tease


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mak15
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: diconoclastsx]
      #5598051 - 04/26/06 10:26 PM

bld we can get what you had and what you would have done against a push?

or if you can't give that away then one or the other? either what you had or what you would have done had you had 77 and/or 22?

please?


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samoleus
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Re: RESULTS [Re: tom441lbk]
      #5599289 - 04/27/06 12:00 AM

hard to say for sure - but I almost certainly push with AA and JJ. I'll double him up if he has 3-4 and I have one of those two hands.

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cardsharkk04
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Re: RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5600215 - 04/27/06 01:27 AM

WE NEED BLD TO TELL US WHAT HE HAD

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LegallyBlind
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Re: RESULTS [Re: cardsharkk04]
      #5600284 - 04/27/06 01:34 AM

Quote:

WE NEED BLD TO TELL US WHAT HE HAD




not really. we just need BLD to tell us if, on this hand, he would have called a river push with a set.


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BLdSWtTRs
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Re: RESULTS [Re: LegallyBlind]
      #5601904 - 04/27/06 05:52 AM

It would have been a tough decision. Samoleus is capable of any two cards, and is capable of playing them in any fashion. I can't give an honest answer whether i would have folded or called.

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fslexcduck
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Re: RESULTS [Re: BLdSWtTRs]
      #5602002 - 04/27/06 06:16 AM

Quote:

It would have been a tough decision. Samoleus is capable of any two cards, and is capable of playing them in any fashion. I can't give an honest answer whether i would have folded or called.




are you implying you DIDN'T have 64 or 86?


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Rick305
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Re: RESULTS [Re: BLdSWtTRs]
      #5602014 - 04/27/06 06:19 AM

Quote:

It would have been a tough decision. Samoleus is capable of any two cards, and is capable of playing them in any fashion. I can't give an honest answer whether i would have folded or called.




Did you have a set?


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blopp
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5605125 - 04/27/06 12:47 PM

I love thise post sam.

1. With those stack would you still raise AA so little preflop? I know a too big raise isnt good (give away your hand). But can you really sell AA here? I have have no idea, if you have a standard raise you use on all hands. But raising AA 2,5bb after 2 limps... Even in position..

2. How do you think bld would bet weaker made hands on river (still valuebetting). Like 75 (limping to bust you) and A7 ("bluffing" turn).

If he still bet these hands strong on river, because you sometimes call light. I think its easier to bluff him. (You still represent the same hand with a push, but he would have a harder time calling here with 75 vs 55)

If this is nonsense.. Sorry

Blopp


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Parlay Slow
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: blopp]
      #5605465 - 04/27/06 01:15 PM

I'm pretty sure BLd had 34 but I can't completely remember

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HotPants
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Parlay Slow]
      #5606241 - 04/27/06 02:09 PM

Quote:

I'm pretty sure BLd had 34 but I can't completely remember




Why would you be capable of remembering? Did he tell you what he had?


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LegallyBlind
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: HotPants]
      #5606645 - 04/27/06 02:35 PM

I think we can agree Bld would fould all hands<set and call with 43, this seems pretty standard. So, aren't we more interested to know if Bld would have folded a set on this hand if sam pushed the river?

and of course i mean any set lower than JJJ and AAA


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MDMA
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: blopp]
      #5608605 - 04/27/06 04:34 PM

Blopp, he's either raising the same amount with all holdings, or he's capable of raising all different amounts with every holding. No good player on this level is ever gonna let any information slip through through their preflop betsizes, and most likely not through their betsizes on any other street as well (except for when they want to represent a certain holding/strength obviously, such as with river overbets representing air or nuts).

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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: blopp]
      #5613155 - 04/27/06 10:54 PM

Blopp, your answers:

1. I never vary my raise sizes based on hand strength. Position and number of players in the pot are the only factors that determine the size of my opening raise.

2. Good question. I think 7-5 may or may not check call the river. If he bets with 7-5 (probably 50% of the time in this spot), he will almost always fold to a raise. A-7 probably fires and folds to a raise. However, there is almost 0% chance that he plays the flop that way with A-7.


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samoleus
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: Parlay Slow]
      #5613160 - 04/27/06 10:54 PM

I still don't know what Bld had. He did not show.

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samoleus
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Re: RESULTS [Re: BLdSWtTRs]
      #5613185 - 04/27/06 10:56 PM

Well, if Bld is being honest here (and I certainly believe him), I guess he didn't have 3-4.

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MDMA
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Re: RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5614006 - 04/28/06 12:03 AM

Sam, I think bld wasn't really implying what he would have done with the specific holding he had here, but rather what he would do (on balance, since internal handvalue between 77,55 and 22 is clearly, as stated, of the essence for the call) with all the other holdings mentioned except 34 had you raised allin.

At least that's what I make of it:)

Anyways, this thread turned out remarkable (as good as your post with 3 hands earlier), good work samoleus, looking forward to more of these quality postings!


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samoleus
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Re: RESULTS [Re: MDMA]
      #5614034 - 04/28/06 12:04 AM

Thanks MDMA! And I think you are right about Bld's post ...

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Jman28
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Re: RESULTS [Re: samoleus]
      #5614077 - 04/28/06 12:08 AM

I'd like to echo MDMA's sentiments. I'm really glad to have you posting here, Sam.

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Death Valley
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Re: RESULTS [Re: Jman28]
      #5637811 - 04/30/06 08:10 AM

FWIW, I like a buff raise on the river less when the ace hits, if you are hoping he will fold a set. When ace comes it looks like you may be moving in with aces up

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PartyGirlUK
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Re: RESULTS [Re: Death Valley]
      #5637834 - 04/30/06 08:20 AM

Firstly, I really doubt Sam would move in with Aces up in this position. Secondly, how the hell can he have gotten to the river with Ax 1 pair?

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samoleus
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Re: RESULTS [Re: PartyGirlUK]
      #5638891 - 04/30/06 12:32 PM

Well said Dean. Two very good points. There is no way in hell that aces up is a value raise there - not even close. In fact, I will fold with aces up there before I raise. (calling and folding would be close). ... And as Dean says, even if I was stupid enough to raise aces up there, what hand could I have had that called the three flop raises, and the huge turn bet?

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Jamougha
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Re: 32K pot against Bld with 8 high? toughest decision I've ever had! [Re: samoleus]
      #5643750 - 04/30/06 08:46 PM

Quote:

I will play AA the same way about 60% of the time, folding the other 40% to his turn bet.




I find this by far the most interesting sentence in the thread.


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BobboFitos
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Re: RESULTS [Re: PartyGirlUK]
      #8796099 - 01/17/07 10:05 AM

warning, this is an old bump, first time reading this thread. wow, good one. (got bored, read the BBV thing, was linked here...)

Quote:

Secondly, how the hell can he have gotten to the river with Ax 1 pair?




A7c. raise pf with the limpers. raise the original limper after bld's cc. calls bld's 3bet bc he thinks he's fos. A7 ~= AA wrt 3bet range on that flop / bluff catcher.

hit the club on turn. has visions of stacking bld. calls.

hits aces up on the river.

there, one combo possibility of samo having A7.


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