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UBB.threads™ Groupee, Inc.

General Gambling >> Probability

Pages: 1
ALReturnsLOL
phu_1, the sickest LAG by far


Reged: 07/16/05
Posts: 4474
Loc: Averett 4 lyfe
writing an article, want to double check math
      #13196738 - 12/01/07 02:20 AM

We will examine a few situations and applicable concepts

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2003.90
UTG+1: $745.50
CO: $932.00
Hero: $1000.00
SB: $1203.50
BB: $1000.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q J
3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls.

Flop: ($245, 2 players)
BB bets 190$, Hero?




Is this a good spot to play back at your opponent? To determine this we need to look at (x) our hand QsJs (y) the range our opponent 3 bets with preflop (z) our opponents range for calling once we raise.


So now that we know the individual elements letís take a look at how often our opponent has a strong holding

If your opponent is on the tighter side he will be 3-betting a range similar to this

88+,AJs+,AQo+

On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair, set, or marginal pair 50% of the time.

Once you subtract marginal pairs (99,88) from that range, the picture becomes even more clear

On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair or set 34% of the time.



if you have any questions about how I came up with this equation I would be happy to answer, thanks for the help!


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DiamondDog
enthusiast


Reged: 07/24/07
Posts: 202
Re: writing an article, want to double check math [Re: ALReturnsLOL]
      #13197049 - 12/01/07 02:56 AM

By my reckoning there are 70 pairs of hole cards he could be holding and 33 of those give him a set, an overpair or a marginal pair. So that's roughly 50%.

12 of those 33 are pocket 8's and pocket 9's, leaving 21 out of 70 ways giving him a set or an overpair. Which is 30%.

So yeah, I see where you're getting those figures.

I doubt that helps you much, but it felt good to check it


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punter11235
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 03/06/05
Posts: 3239
Loc: Check out my blog
Re: writing an article, want to double check math [Re: ALReturnsLOL]
      #13198120 - 12/01/07 06:22 AM

I plugged those settings into the simulation and here is what I got :

Overpair or set : 34.4%
Any pair : 54.1%

If our plan is to raise to say 450$ and fold to allin the EV of the play is :
a)if he push overpairs/set folds low pairs : +130$ for us (where 0$ is EV of folding to cbet)
b)if he push any pair : -43$ for us
c)if he push overpairs/set and AK (better strategy than pushing low pairs as AK has better equity vs our potential allin range than say 99) : -101$ for us.
d)if we just push and he calls with overpairs and sets our EV is +22$. Marginally better than folding.

Conclusion : Playing back is good if he is straightforward and only plays overpairs and sets against our raise.

I wrote similair article here I think you may be interested in it.

Edited by punter11235 (12/01/07 06:23 AM)


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ALReturnsLOL
phu_1, the sickest LAG by far


Reged: 07/16/05
Posts: 4474
Loc: Averett 4 lyfe
Re: writing an article, want to double check math [Re: ALReturnsLOL]
      #13199762 - 12/01/07 11:57 AM

Thanks for your replies guys. I am dumb tho and forgot the flop. Do my numbers still hold true?



No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $5/$10
6 players

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2003.90
UTG+1: $745.50
CO: $932.00
Hero: $1000.00
SB: $1203.50
BB: $1000.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q J
3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls.

Flop: ($245, 2 players)T24
BB bets 190$, Hero?


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