Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q J 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls.
Flop: ($245, 2 players) BB bets 190$, Hero?
Is this a good spot to play back at your opponent? To determine this we need to look at (x) our hand QsJs (y) the range our opponent 3 bets with preflop (z) our opponents range for calling once we raise.
So now that we know the individual elements letís take a look at how often our opponent has a strong holding
If your opponent is on the tighter side he will be 3-betting a range similar to this
On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair, set, or marginal pair 50% of the time.
Once you subtract marginal pairs (99,88) from that range, the picture becomes even more clear
On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair or set 34% of the time.
if you have any questions about how I came up with this equation I would be happy to answer, thanks for the help!
I plugged those settings into the simulation and here is what I got :
Overpair or set : 34.4% Any pair : 54.1%
If our plan is to raise to say 450$ and fold to allin the EV of the play is : a)if he push overpairs/set folds low pairs : +130$ for us (where 0$ is EV of folding to cbet) b)if he push any pair : -43$ for us c)if he push overpairs/set and AK (better strategy than pushing low pairs as AK has better equity vs our potential allin range than say 99) : -101$ for us. d)if we just push and he calls with overpairs and sets our EV is +22$. Marginally better than folding.
Conclusion : Playing back is good if he is straightforward and only plays overpairs and sets against our raise.
I wrote similair article here I think you may be interested in it.