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General Gambling >> Probability
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Lagtastic
journeyman

Reged: 10/22/07
Posts: 67
7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me???
#13190714 - 11/30/07 05:37 PM

Just wondering the probability of this---

I was dealt rolled up Kings

The very next hand dealt rolled up Aces

gotta be, like 1 in a gazillion right

(btw also odd---both hands i did not improve and they both still held up)

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tshort
old hand

Reged: 05/28/05
Posts: 1143
Re: 7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me??? [Re: Lagtastic]
#13191309 - 11/30/07 06:12 PM

The probability of being dealt 3 kings on hand 1 then 3 aces on hand 2 is about 1 in 30.5 million.

The probability of being dealt:

KKK then KKK or
KKK then AAA or
AAA then KKK or
AAA then AAA

is about 1 in 150,000.

Add queens into your list of top rolled up hands and the probability of any combination is about 1 in 10,000.

Calculating the odds of not improving takes a little more work.

(Ignoring the flushes/straights there is a 60% chance you will not make quads or a full house once dealt a rolled up hand)

The odds of not improving and holding up further depends variables you haven't listed.

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bigpooch
veteran

Reged: 09/17/03
Posts: 1330
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me??? [Re: tshort]
#13193334 - 11/30/07 08:50 PM

Not all correct. There are 4 combinations of KKK out of
C(52,3)= 22 100; therefore, the probability is 1/5525.
So getting KKK and then AAA is exactly 1/30 525 625 (this
part is correct).

Getting KKK/AAA followed by KKK/AAA again is simply four
times as likely or 7 631 405.25 to 1 against.

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