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General Gambling >> Probability

Pages: 1
Lagtastic
journeyman

Reged: 10/22/07
Posts: 67
7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me???
#13190714 - 11/30/07 05:37 PM

Just wondering the probability of this---

I was dealt rolled up Kings

The very next hand dealt rolled up Aces

gotta be, like 1 in a gazillion right

(btw also odd---both hands i did not improve and they both still held up)

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tshort
old hand

Reged: 05/28/05
Posts: 1143
Re: 7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me??? [Re: Lagtastic]
#13191309 - 11/30/07 06:12 PM

The probability of being dealt 3 kings on hand 1 then 3 aces on hand 2 is about 1 in 30.5 million.

The probability of being dealt:

KKK then KKK or
KKK then AAA or
AAA then KKK or
AAA then AAA

Add queens into your list of top rolled up hands and the probability of any combination is about 1 in 10,000.

Calculating the odds of not improving takes a little more work.

(Ignoring the flushes/straights there is a 60% chance you will not make quads or a full house once dealt a rolled up hand)

The odds of not improving and holding up further depends variables you haven't listed.

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bigpooch
veteran

Reged: 09/17/03
Posts: 1330
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 7 Card stud, who wants to do the math for me??? [Re: tshort]
#13193334 - 11/30/07 08:50 PM

Not all correct. There are 4 combinations of KKK out of
C(52,3)= 22 100; therefore, the probability is 1/5525.
So getting KKK and then AAA is exactly 1/30 525 625 (this
part is correct).

Getting KKK/AAA followed by KKK/AAA again is simply four
times as likely or 7 631 405.25 to 1 against.

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