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Chump Change
EuroBBV


Reged: 06/24/06
Posts: 9851
Loc: WITH UR POOR ROBBIN UR RICHES
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: quirkasaurus]
      #10993141 - 06/29/07 05:55 PM

Quote:

From Chump Change:

[QUOTE]
Aye, but the discussion isn't about a weekend player. It seems that everybody, save for durrr, knew and knows the weekend player had no chance. The comment I quoted stemmed from the talk about seriously competitive players beating top players in certain conditions.

Plus, I still gotta say comparing not having a rook to spotting somebody points in 1 on 1 shows such a fundamental misunderstanding of chess and probably basketball as well.
[/QUOTE]

From Curtains:

[QUOTE]
I don't think its a bad analogy at all. If a friend of Kobe Bryant offers me some prop bet in basketball for like 100k, I probably won't take it, regardless of how great it sounds for me.
[/QUOTE]

Well, at least Curtains agrees with me.

My point is simply that non-professionals and layman alike tend to
seriously underestimate the skills of professionals and experts.

Does an analogy of a top billiards player work better for you ?

Doesn't losing a $50,000 prop bet seem to support my premise ?
How seriously did durr underestimate curtains ?




Well, if you're familiar with any of my posts you realize I don't talk out of my ass.

I don't know much about much but 2 things I know quite a bit about are basketball and chess. If the analogy used any other spot I would've let it alone, but i've played both at a fairly competitive level and have played against elite and even competition (more basketball than chess, plus i've coached kids in the former) and figured i'd add my .02.

But i'm no trying to argue that point and definitely was not trying to insult or flame you.

I was simply saying that a more apt analogy to rook odds would be a basketball player playing with one hand or with an eyeptach or something where the weaker player might solve the problem and find a niche to exploit.

Spotting a player 15 points up to 24 is the same as spotting a player 15 games up to 24 in a chess match. The stronger player will be unstoppable but in a rook odds scenario or simliar the stronger player will be somewhat out of his element and thus somewhat susceptible to having this exploited.

That's all.


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Lalu
stranger


Reged: 12/19/05
Posts: 22
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: curtains]
      #10993175 - 06/29/07 05:58 PM

Yes any expert who couldn't crush a GM with rook odds, really must reevaluate their strength. To all who think curtains would still be a favorite vs. a 2150 with pawn odds: my challenge still stands, I don't even want pawn odds, I'll take him on at 3 to 2 time odds, just name your price and time

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Chump Change
EuroBBV


Reged: 06/24/06
Posts: 9851
Loc: WITH UR POOR ROBBIN UR RICHES
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: curtains]
      #10993237 - 06/29/07 06:03 PM

Curtains,

I'm a couple posts shy of reading the whole thing but I don't think this has been asked.

Did you have any rook odds opening preparation prior to this match, maybe just go over some of the old nimzowitsch or tarrasch odds games?


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Bronstein
journeyman


Reged: 05/01/05
Posts: 81
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: KingDan]
      #10993262 - 06/29/07 06:04 PM

Quote:

GMs tend to be pretty big pussies when the money is on the line.

In a big tourney 1st might be $15,000. On top board, either player who wins would clinch first place. Instead, they usually agree to a quick draw, where they get into a massive 6-7 way tie for first for like $4,000

Sometimes the stronger player will have WHITE (will prolly score upwards of 60%).
I understand they need the money to live off and yada yada, just has bugged me for a while.



Most either have no clue whatsoever on how to determine +EV plays or they lack the guts.

I think a USA championship saw this recently. Like 10 people in first place, 4 boards make a quick draw (thus 8 players), the 5th board becomes a crazy game. Clearly +EV (for these 2 guys) in the short run, but especially in the long-run! Think of all the invitations you'll get when you win. It always amazes me how short-sighted some GMs can be.


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Chump Change
EuroBBV


Reged: 06/24/06
Posts: 9851
Loc: WITH UR POOR ROBBIN UR RICHES
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: KingDan]
      #10993563 - 06/29/07 06:26 PM

Quote:

Kingdan on fics and ICC. you?




Lolol I knew that name looked familiar. I've played with you a few times on ICC, I think you berated me when I was your bughouse partner when it was my 2nd or 3rd game, lol.


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Post-Oak
old hand


Reged: 12/07/04
Posts: 899
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: curtains]
      #10993585 - 06/29/07 06:27 PM

Curtains, I have a random question (since you don't seem to mind answering some).

What if you got to be white pieces, but your first two moves had to be

1. e3
2. Ke2???

How highly rated would black need to be in order to be a favorite to win/draw?


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almostbusto
veteran


Reged: 03/11/06
Posts: 1262
Loc: unemployed
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: Post-Oak]
      #10994644 - 06/29/07 07:42 PM

here is a good chess prop that is very winnable. better prop than raptor's at least imo because it doesn't rely on someone being crazy.

bet that you can draw (or even win against certain computers) a computer rated in the 2200-2600 range, probably don't want to go to high though since it will make it obvious something is up. make the time control 3 minutes (possible 2 or even 1 if you get good at it, no inc is critical though) and make sure the bet allows you 4 or so tries as white (also critical). if you are rated 1600-1700 like me you will NEVER beat a 2400+ computer at 3 minute chess through typical means. however, certain computers have little exploits that allow you to lock up the board very easily and just shuffle pieces for a draw, and very often win on time depending on how the computer's move selection algorithm works.


here is a demonstration i played today against a 2200ish computer. i am out of practice, it takes some getting used to, and every computer is different. so you definitely have to train with the particular software/hardware setup in advance. cherry picking the computer is KEY and its the only hitch that may turn off the mark.



1. d4 Nf6 2. e3 d5 3. f4 c5 4. c3 Qb6 5. Bd3 Nc6 6. Nf3 c4 7. Bc2 g6 8. O-O
Bf5 9. a3 Bxc2 10. Qxc2 h5 11. g3 Bg7 12. Rf2 Ne4 13. Rg2 Na5 14. Nbd2 Nb3
15. Rb1 Nexd2 16. Nxd2 f5 17. Nf3 a5 18. Bd2 a4 19. Be1 Qd6 20. Kh1 b5 21.
Kg1 Na5 22. Kh1 Nb7 23. Kg1 Qd7 24. Kh1 Nd6 25. Kg1 Ne4 26. Kh1 e6 27. Kg1
Qc7 28. Qe2 Qf7 29. Kh1 Qe7 30. Qf1 Qd6 31. Qg1 Qd7 32. Qf1 Ra5 33. Qg1 Nd6
34. Qf1 Ne4 35. Qg1 Qd8 36. Qf1 Qd6 37. Qg1 Qc7 38. Qf1 Qd6 39. Qg1 Qc7 40.
Qf1 Qa7 41. Qg1 Qf7 42. Qf1 Qb7 43. Qg1 Qa6 44. Qf1 Qa7 45. Qg1 Qb6 46. Qf1
Bf6 47. Qg1 Bg7 48. Qf1 Ra6 49. Qg1 Qd8 50. Qf1 Qd6 51. Qg1 Qb6 52. Qf1 Ra5
53. Qg1 Ra7 54. Qf1 Ra5 55. Qg1 Qb7 56. Qf1 Qe7 57. Qg1 Qa7 58. Qf1 Qa6 59.
Qg1 Qd6 60. Qf1 Qa6 61. Qg1 Qa8 62. Qf1 Qb7 63. Qg1 Qa7 64. Qf1 Bf6 65. Qg1
Qc7 66. Qf1 Bg7 67. Qg1 Ra8 68. Qf1 Ra5 69. Qg1 Qd7 70. Qf1 Qe7 71. Qg1 Qf8
72. Qf1 Qf7 73. Qg1 Bf6 74. Qf1 Bg7 75. Qg1 Qe7 76. Qf1 Qd8 77. Qg1
{Game drawn by the 50 move rule} 1/2-1/2

i didn't realize the 50 move rule was coming up so early or i would have put h4 in there... wouldn't have mattered though, this computer played fast it seemed and still had lots of time on the clock. usually when i get a win, the game goes 100-250 moves, this game locked up way too early to allow it to go much deeper.


hist 'riverplate' (not me, but its who i first saw employ this setup successfully) on fics for some better examples.

i have never actually bet on this because i don't know many people that are in to chess, and the few that i do don't have any money. so i might as well give it away.

Edited by almostbusto (06/29/07 07:45 PM)


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apefish
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 03/22/06
Posts: 4673
Loc: To the pain
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: almostbusto]
      #10994927 - 06/29/07 08:07 PM

I have almost proven via this thread that it's impossible to rub one out when thinking about chess.
Pics of curtains sister maybe?


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pahala
member


Reged: 10/19/06
Posts: 104
Loc: (Es)poo flinging
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: Reef]
      #10995085 - 06/29/07 08:20 PM

Quote:


OMFG bughouse is basically a mind-gasm to play .. so incredibly fun. WHAT SITE DO U PLAY IT AT?





FICS is hands down the best site for bughouse. If you want to play bughouse there, you may want to download the Thief interface.

Damn, I should start playing bug again, I think my last games are from somewhere around 2004 since my RD is almost 250 now. I haven't ever been very good at it though, my personal best is 1819 from December '03.


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citanul
SNG Pooh-Bah


Reged: 07/24/03
Posts: 11179
Loc: taking your lunch money
Re: Durrr in process of losing 60k+ in a chess bet.. good month for ra [Re: pahala]
      #10995206 - 06/29/07 08:29 PM

Whoa,

lalu, are you my brother's friend from college? For some reason I think so. Maybe I knew this already. If so, hi, for him, I guess? Maybe you guys weren't good friends or something, how would I know? I'm pretty sure you and I have played bughouse or something retarded like that online at some point. (Wash U?)


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