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PL/NL Texas Hold'em >> Micro Stakes

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ama0330Moderator
more whining, less poker


Reged: 04/20/06
Posts: 5704
Loc: Crushing
**** PSA - Losing as a favourite ****
      #10413550 - 05/17/07 04:20 PM

Hello microballers,

A friendly Public Service Announcement for you all.

In poker we deal with EV, which simply translated means "betting our money when we are a mathematical favourite, and not betting when we aren't". We all know that when you are a 60/40 favourite, you should come out with the mad monies when the river is all said and done. Right?

WRONGGGGGG!

This may seem simple to most of you, but when we are talking equity edges in poker, they are very, VERY slim. What I mean by that is that one of the best edges you can have in poker (all in with AA versus AK preflop) is still only a 10:1 shot to hold up. That kind of edge is only offered to us VERY rarely in typical play. What we usually deal with are edges like holding a set versus a flush draw (a 3:1 edge) having our opponent draw to 3 outs (70:30). Edges of 60-65% are still very good and are more common.

What you need to realise is that when you hold an equity edge of 70%, you are a favourite, BUT if you were to play the situation 100 times, you are guaranteed to lose 30 times. If you talk about a 2:1 edge (a big edge in NLHE), if you run it 100 times, you are supposed to lose 33 times in addition to winning your 66 times.

My point is, if you get it all in with 70% equity and lose, then immediately think "I was a favourite. I was supposed to win that pot", you are seriously deluding yourself and you need to properly understand what it is to have an equity edge. An equity edge is NOT a golden stamp saying "Sup dude! Ship the monies!". It just doesn't work like that. A 60% edge means you win 60 times out of 100, and lose40 times out of 100. Thats right...40 times out of 100 you are mathematically destined to lose. We are all very happy when our edges hold up, but when we lose, how often do we say "oh well, 70% isn't a lock. You gotta lose those ones sometimes".

NEVER! We say "[censored] HELL 70% EQUITY WTF HOW DID I LOSE THAT WITH SUCH A HUGE [censored] EDGE JESUS I RUN SO BAD BLAERHGJHWKJEGHWEJKH" - right? Yes I'm right. Look how many stamps there are in the cheese thread.

SO.

Consider this new rule.


"The only time you can be truly justified in complaining about losing with an equity edge is if you had your opponent drawing dead on the turn and the dealer dealt a 6th card to give you opponent the best hand, and no-one said anything and the floor ruled that the 6th card was legal and there was nothing you could do about it"

or, more realistically,

"You cant complain about losing with an equity edge in one specific hand, you can only complain about losing with an equity edge when mathematical variance has evened out. Given that nobody knows how long "long term" actually means, you can't really ever complain about losing with an equity edge".


Hopefully now you have a better understanding of what it means to be a "favourite" in an all in confrontation. Sometimes you don't just lose, sometimes you HAVE to lose.

Get it?



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PJo336
BOOOOOOOOOOM


Reged: 03/27/07
Posts: 3924
Loc: N.O.Y.B. imo
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: ama0330]
      #10413563 - 05/17/07 04:21 PM






!!!!!!


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jafeather
veteran


Reged: 05/18/06
Posts: 1391
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: PJo336]
      #10413646 - 05/17/07 04:26 PM

A) Everything you said is very ture.

B) It's horribly sad that this needs to be said.

C) It's even more horribly sad that the people that really need to read and understand OP may read, but are unlikely to ever understand, OP.


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Skleice
addict


Reged: 10/31/06
Posts: 425
Loc: the short bus
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: PJo336]
      #10413654 - 05/17/07 04:26 PM

Seems like somebody got stuck listening to too many bad beat stories...

BBV.


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ama0330Moderator
more whining, less poker


Reged: 04/20/06
Posts: 5704
Loc: Crushing
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: jafeather]
      #10413674 - 05/17/07 04:28 PM

Quote:

A) Everything you said is very ture.

B) It's horribly sad that this needs to be said.

C) It's even more horribly sad that the people that really need to read and understand OP may read, but are unlikely to ever understand, OP.




Yeah but I had to try, right?

I wonder how many people lose as a 70% favourite and consider that they may be running hot? Something to think about there.


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PJo336
BOOOOOOOOOOM


Reged: 03/27/07
Posts: 3924
Loc: N.O.Y.B. imo
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: ama0330]
      #10413796 - 05/17/07 04:35 PM

lol
"if you run it 100 times, you are supposed to lose 33 times in addition to winning your 66 times."

33+66= 100!!!
haha just messing I fully endorse the message of this post, but I doubt even a good description will change anything for most.
Everyone needs to do what I have done. Get one friend who never says ANYTHING but bad beat stories. After 1 month if you ever felt like mentioning a bad beat to anyone without thinking of how annoying your friend is I would be surprised.


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Panic__NL
addict


Reged: 12/28/06
Posts: 666
Loc: Netherlands, Rotterdam
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: ama0330]
      #10413859 - 05/17/07 04:39 PM

Nice post, some people think if they hold AA and their opponent hold AK, they deserve to win. Wrong thought, they will win most of the time, but getting that into your brain is hard sometimes. Best you can do is put your money in when you are ahead.
Still it is against the human emotion, be happy when the money goes in when you are ahead but still loose, be mad at yourself when the money goes in when you are behind but win by a suckout.


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jafeather
veteran


Reged: 05/18/06
Posts: 1391
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: Panic__NL]
      #10414024 - 05/17/07 04:48 PM

An mathematical equation on the amplification of this thought process caused by online play by standard donk to whom OP is aimed:

Where,

X = the number times the favorite hand fails to hold up

Y = (avg # of online hands per hour) - (avg # of b&m hands per hour)

X * Y = rigged


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Knight Vision
veteran


Reged: 03/08/06
Posts: 1367
Loc: Stacking off with TPTK
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: jafeather]
      #10414095 - 05/17/07 04:53 PM

Quote:

An mathematical equation on the amplification of this thought process caused by online play by standard donk to whom OP is aimed:

Where,

X = the number times the favorite hand fails to hold up

Y = (avg # of online hands per hour) - (avg # of b&m hands per hour)

X * Y = rigged




Online players make such bad calls though. Factor that in. kthx


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kaz2107
Jumpman HOLLA!


Reged: 07/26/05
Posts: 2943
Loc: Hating CO pro sports atm
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite **** [Re: Knight Vision]
      #10414176 - 05/17/07 04:58 PM

ama make me a kool stamp to use

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