The 2+2 Forum Archives: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs?

Terms & Conditions

Internet Magazine

Non–US new players
Get five 2+2 books

Order Books
Book Translations
Forum Login

Expand All Collapse All

Two Plus Two

General Poker Discussion

Coaching/Training

German Forums

French Forums

Limit Texas Hold'em

PL/NL Texas Hold'em

Tournament Poker

Other Poker

General Gambling

Internet Gambling

2+2 Communities

The 2+2 Forums

Before using this Forum, please refer to the Terms and Conditions (Last modified: 2/26/2006)

Be sure to read the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine

This is an archive. The main forums are here

These forums are read only.

UBB.threads™

Groupee, Inc.

You are not logged in. [Login]

Main Index · Search · Classified Ads
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Calendar

Other Poker >> Heads Up Poker

Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)

Nichomacheo
old hand

Reged: 08/12/06
Posts: 1142

Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs?
#8075767 - 11/16/06 01:03 PM

Among most serious Heads Up players, there is a rule that you shouldnt play a particular buyin without 20 times that in your bankroll. This is usually said for the low-medium buyins and it is said you need more for the higher buyins, which makes sense since your variance will be a lot higher.

But why 20 buyins? Where does that number come from? Any math to support it?

Ignore the psychological aspects for now, because that can make the number significantly higher.

Post Extras:

MrWookie
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 02/28/05
Posts: 17411
Loc: Treating my drinking problem

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: Nichomacheo]
#8075981 - 11/16/06 01:22 PM

Basically, this is modeled after the random walk problem. Look up some of BruceZ's posts on the subject in the probability forum. Basically, you have a 60% chance of moving forward and a 40% chance of going back. What's the probability that you end up 20 steps back?

Post Extras:

BruceZ
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 09/03/02
Posts: 4078

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: MrWookie]
#8076848 - 11/16/06 02:29 PM

Quote:

Basically, this is modeled after the random walk problem. Look up some of BruceZ's posts on the subject in the probability forum. Basically, you have a 60% chance of moving forward and a 40% chance of going back. What's the probability that you end up 20 steps back?

1 in 3325 or about 0.03%.

Let r be the risk of losing a single bet.

r = 0.4 + 0.6*r^2

This says that we can lose it on the first hand with probability 40%, or win on the first hand with probability 60%, and then lose 2 bets after that, which has probability r^2 since we must lose 1 bet twice. Solving for r gives:

r = 2/3.

(Formally eliminating the other solution r=1 requires the more sophisticated derviation in this post).

The probability of losing a 20 bet bankroll is (2/3)^20 =~ 1 in 3325 or about 0.03%.

Post Extras:

ThePhenom919
newbie

Reged: 11/10/06
Posts: 49

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: Nichomacheo]
#8076963 - 11/16/06 02:39 PM

Just take the advice kaon. Don't doubt my BR mgmt skills!

Post Extras:

MrWookie
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 02/28/05
Posts: 17411
Loc: Treating my drinking problem

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: ThePhenom919]
#8078537 - 11/16/06 04:29 PM

Huh. So it actually looks like for a 60% winner, a 20 buy in roll is a little on the conservative side. You could do pretty well with 15 (just a 0.2% RoR, or even 10 (1% RoR). Naturally, the more you suck, the more buy ins you need.

Post Extras:

frede89
member

Reged: 08/07/06
Posts: 177

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: MrWookie]
#8078706 - 11/16/06 04:42 PM

Am i the only one who would move down, in case i lost a big percentage of my BR?

Post Extras:

BruceZ
Carpal \'Tunnel

Reged: 09/03/02
Posts: 4078

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: MrWookie]
#8079145 - 11/16/06 05:08 PM

Quote:

Huh. So it actually looks like for a 60% winner, a 20 buy in roll is a little on the conservative side. You could do pretty well with 15 (just a 0.2% RoR, or even 10 (1% RoR).

10 would be a 1.7% RoR since (2/3)^10 = 1.7%.

Post Extras:

acidca
[censored]

Reged: 08/28/05
Posts: 1765
Loc: Manhattan

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: BruceZ]
#8079433 - 11/16/06 05:27 PM

BruceZ, I've got a bonus problem for you:
I've got a br of $210. I'm going to play heads up until I either double my money or go broke.
I'm going to start at the $20 matches on stars. If I drop down to $105 or lower, I will drop in stakes to $10. If I drop to 52.50 or lower, I will drop to $5.
What are the odds I will go broke vs the odds I double up?

Bonus 2:
Same thing, but including rake.

Bonus 3:
At $500 I move up to $50. What are the odds I reach $1000 before going broke.

ASSUME 60% CHANCE TO WIN AT ALL LEVELS.

Post Extras:

Goldmund
enthusiast

Reged: 03/08/06
Posts: 303
Loc: Europe

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: Nichomacheo]
#8086938 - 11/17/06 07:12 AM

What the hell are you talking about? Haven't you studied Rob's rule of three? It's so annoying when people keep bringing up stuff that has already been analysed ad nauseam. Goldmund

Post Extras:

dboy23
Pooh-Bah

Reged: 02/18/06
Posts: 2231
Loc: HU forum 4lyfe imo

Re: Why 20 buyins for HUSNGs? [Re: Goldmund]
#8086977 - 11/17/06 07:23 AM

I think moving down at 10 buyins for current level will make your ROR very very small.

Post Extras:

Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)

Extra information

0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator: Leader, DcifrThs, Mike Haven

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 1050

Jump to

2+2 Publishing

Pages provided by ConJelCo