The 2+2 Forum Archives: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

Terms & Conditions

Internet Magazine

Non–US new players
Get five 2+2 books

Order Books
Book Translations
Forum Login

Expand All Collapse All

Two Plus Two

General Poker Discussion

Coaching/Training

German Forums

French Forums

Limit Texas Hold'em

PL/NL Texas Hold'em

Tournament Poker

Other Poker

General Gambling

Internet Gambling

2+2 Communities

The 2+2 Forums

Before using this Forum, please refer to the Terms and Conditions (Last modified: 2/26/2006)

Be sure to read the Two Plus Two Internet Magazine

This is an archive. The main forums are here

These forums are read only.

UBB.threads™

Groupee, Inc.

You are not logged in. [Login]

Main Index · Search · Classified Ads
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Calendar

General Gambling >> Probability

Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)

hick dead
journeyman

Reged: 09/03/07
Posts: 51

Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?
#12918377 - 11/12/07 03:55 AM

like right now it's $90,000,000. how high does the jackpot need to be before it becomes +ev. also does the powerplay increase your ev or decrease it?

Post Extras:

astrodon
newbie

Reged: 11/22/04
Posts: 36
Loc: Fossil, Oregon

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: hick dead]
#12919564 - 11/12/07 08:11 AM

The 'pot odds' or the price you are getting from the reward must be greater than the odds against you winning the pot. So, for a 90,000,000 dollar pot you are getting 90,000,000 to 1. Except the odds of winning are very much more than 100,000,000 to 1 against. And even more considering you will only receive half the pot by 'cashing out'. Also, I understand as the pot increases so do the odds against. As far as the power play is concerned it just increases the amount you have invested.

I tend to look at buying a powerball ticket as a 'dollar's worth of dreams'.

Post Extras:

LerkEr
Banned

Reged: 11/07/07
Posts: 83

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: astrodon]
#12919662 - 11/12/07 08:37 AM

we call it lottery!

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: LerkEr]
#12923441 - 11/12/07 02:32 PM

You rang, sir?

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: astrodon]
#12923517 - 11/12/07 02:36 PM

Quote:

And even more considering you will only receive half the pot by 'cashing out'. Also, I understand as the pot increases so do the odds against. As far as the power play is concerned it just increases the amount you have invested.

1) Not really. I don't know why we don't consider the taxes and other costs in any other wager, but insist on factoring it in so obsessively with lottery pools. Besides, for $90M before taxes, do you CARE about the taxes?

2) Unless you have some weird version of the lottery being played, the amount of the money in the "pot" doesn't change the odds of winning that pot.... unless you're increasing the likehood of a split (which ancedotely is around 20% for the big lottery pools)

3) The powerplay is like insurance in BJ, in that it is a separate bet that has nothing to do with your main wager.

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: hick dead]
#12923622 - 11/12/07 02:44 PM

Quote:

like right now it's $90,000,000. how high does the jackpot need to be before it becomes +ev.

There was a calculation made , 6 months ago or so (I replied in the thread, so maybe search on my name- it might have been the Other Gambling forum, or elsewhere) that the jackpot for the Powerball would have to be in the half-billion range. That would almost guarantee that the cash value prize, minus the chances of splitting and the taxes involved, would end up as a +EV result.

If you want to wait until the lottery pools hit $500M for the first time EVER, feel free.

one could argue that waiting for the cash value to pass the 148M:1 or worse odds could be considered +EV... but you'd rarely get to play then either.

I say, when the annuity passes the odds of winning, it's HUGELY +EV for me to win the jackpot... regardless of what amount I eventually end up with as spendable cash.

Make your own call... but for a few dollars, you can't go wrong IMO unless you're going broke.

Quote:

also does the powerplay increase your ev or decrease it?

Take a guess- do lotteries and bonus features get added because they'll cost the organization MORE than it had been costing them, before the new feature was added?

(answer: only if someone screwed up)

I'd rather spend $2 on two chances at 90M than adding a dollar to give me ~15M:1 chance to win a million dollars... or less, depending on which powerplay factor came up.

Post Extras:

pococurante
member

Reged: 07/03/07
Posts: 138
Loc: VA

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: Lottery Larry]
#12931624 - 11/12/07 11:47 PM

The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: pococurante]
#12936251 - 11/13/07 08:58 AM

Quote:

The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.

And other forms of gambling aren't, because they DON'T pay taxes?

Post Extras:

Dorothy Mantooth
enthusiast

Reged: 08/13/07
Posts: 204
Loc: Is a Saint

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: Lottery Larry]
#12936992 - 11/13/07 10:21 AM

According to the Powerball site, the odds of winning the grand prize are 1 in 146,107,962.00. You would be getting a good price on your money technically when the jackpot hits $146,107,963 with one mitigating factor being that more tickets in groups are sold which might increase the chance of having multiple winners.

Post Extras:

pococurante
member

Reged: 07/03/07
Posts: 138
Loc: VA

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: Lottery Larry]
#12937927 - 11/13/07 11:43 AM

Quote:

Quote:

The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.

And other forms of gambling aren't, because they DON'T pay taxes?

I didn't say that.

I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: pococurante]
#13007020 - 11/17/07 10:05 PM

Quote:

I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.

Eh, semantics. If I end up with $6M after spending a few dollars, I give a flying DUCK about "+EV"

Post Extras:

DrVanNostrin
addict

Reged: 09/09/05
Posts: 656
Loc: throwing my cards at the deale...

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: hick dead]
#13007648 - 11/17/07 11:08 PM

Even if the lottery is +EV after taxes I doubt its utility is +EV.

Post Extras:

HeroInBlack
veteran

Reged: 03/14/05
Posts: 1311
Loc: Gainesville, GA

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: Lottery Larry]
#13032297 - 11/19/07 04:38 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I only meant that when you're 10 million to win and the prize is 11 million, it's still -EV. Some people see only the "omg superrare plus EV lottery" and forget about taxes.

Eh, semantics. If I end up with $6M after spending a few dollars, I give a flying DUCK about "+EV"

Larry:

The original question was about EV, so I think the point was legitimate and correct.

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: HeroInBlack]
#13033618 - 11/19/07 05:53 PM

Quote:

The original question was about EV, so I think the point was legitimate and correct.

If you look farther up, you see I actually answered the question (somewhat) with numbers.

As for "legitimate".... I don't think worrying about EV in a multi-state lottery is worth the effort. You don't play the lottery for the EV. You play the lottery for the huge ROI and the low buy-in.

I've yet to here a person say, after winning an 8-figure jackpot post-tax, say "Oh, I know it was a silly -EV bet, I felt really foolish for buying the ticket."

Post Extras:

JacksonTens
old hand

Reged: 05/03/05
Posts: 1169
Loc: Melbourne, Australia

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: DrVanNostrin]
#13055371 - 11/21/07 01:06 AM

Quote:

Even if the lottery is +EV after taxes I doubt its utility is +EV.

BANG

JT

Post Extras:

Lottery Larry
Home Poker Pimp

Reged: 06/20/03
Posts: 6198
Loc: Home Poker in da HOOWWSSS!

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: DrVanNostrin]
#13067266 - 11/21/07 08:21 PM

"utility" to whom? The winner, or society as a whole (including the donators who made up the big pot)?

Post Extras:

DrVanNostrin
addict

Reged: 09/09/05
Posts: 656
Loc: throwing my cards at the deale...

Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot? [Re: Lottery Larry]
#13068033 - 11/21/07 09:22 PM

Quote:

"utility" to whom? The winner, or society as a whole (including the donators who made up the big pot)?

The winner? If your point is the lottery is +EV for the person who wins, then I agree.

The lottery's utility is surely -EV for society as a whole, as well as each participant. An exception to this might occur for Bill Gates when the jackpot is very large. (By "the lottery" I'm referring only to the movement of money, not other things the lottery might fund. I still think it's -EV for society as a whole even when those things are factored in, but that is politics and I'm not a fan of arguing politics.)

Post Extras:

Pages: 1 | 2 | >> (show all)

Extra information

0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator: Mat Sklansky, BruceZ, Mike Haven

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 535

Jump to

2+2 Publishing

Pages provided by ConJelCo