El Diablo
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Given the reads there, post-flop looks just like chip-spewing and the "will get a fold on river disproportionate amount of time" seems like results-oriented defense of poor play to me.
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fyodor
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I felt much the same way after reading this article. I can't believe there is any but the faintest of hope that Frank would lay down AA to one more bet on the end. At one point in the article there was mention of potentially building a pot big enough to call for one more bet on the end. Well he built it.
I have no idea why Frank would call the turn bet with AA and then not call on the river. The only way he could improve was if he hit a 2 outer. I think he was getting 10:1 on the turn. It is just bad poker to call that turn if you are going to fold the river unimproved.
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Bottled Rockets
member
Reged: 11/13/03
Posts: 164
Loc: San Diego
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I also could not believe AA would fold there.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
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Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Given the reads there, post-flop looks just like chip-spewing and the "will get a fold on river disproportionate amount of time" seems like results-oriented defense of poor play to me.
It's results-oriented thinking displayed in the replies below yours, knowing he had the better hand so he should obviously call.
This invariably is a situation that I should've posted the hand in the forums a few weeks ago like this:
You're in mid-position with a pair of Aces. There's a limper ahead of you so you raise. A 2+2'er who knows you and you know him 3-bets. It's folded to you and you cap. He calls.
The board comes: K  Q 8 
You bet, he raises, you three-bet, he caps.
Turn: 7
You check and he bets.
River: 10 
You check and he bets.
What's your line?
--
If we had that scenario above, how many people would've advocated folding? Check the forums, you've been around for years longer than me and have how times more posts...?
I talked about this the other day (and other times) in my replies: too many people are looking to save a bet.
Sure, it's easy to say that he should call me - obviously! - but people are so willing to fold that even when they have the better hand ruthless aggression can push them off.
PLUS, even if he goes to pay me off, enough times in this spot I'm running pocket Kings, Queens, the same way and getting paid off far more than I should be.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Quote:
I think he was getting 10:1 on the turn. It is just bad poker to call that turn if you are going to fold the river unimproved.
One of the hands he put me on was A J for the royal flush draw on the flop. I got there with the 10. If that's what I had. So it wasn't just him not improving ... it's me hitting the other hand that he thought I had.
I agree, though, folding the river wasn't good. But how many are doing it...? Tell others to fold...? Not thinking about the size of the pot when making these decisions...?
Again: check the forums; I bet I can find a number of posts in any number of threads where people give advice to "fold, you're probably beat" - but are they probably beat X% of the time where that makes it a correct laydown...?
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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fyodor
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Quote:
You're in mid-position with a pair of Aces. There's a limper ahead of you so you raise. A 2+2'er who knows you and you know him 3-bets. It's folded to you and you cap. He calls.
The board comes: K Q 8
You bet, he raises, you three-bet, he caps.
Turn: 7
You check and he bets.
River: 10
You check and he bets.
What's your line?
Call.
Again... why call the turn if you aren't calling the river? Are you dreaming about hitting the trips? Are you afraid the Ten beat you?
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Call.
Again... why call the turn if you aren't calling the river? Are you dreaming about hitting the trips? Are you afraid the Ten beat you?
This settles it. I REALLY should've had this as a message before the article was posted like a week ago - that would've made for some interesting material with the whole "results in the October 2+2 magazine"... especially on a hand like this.
But, again, agreed, it's not a good fold which is why I cringe when people advocate folding big pots when there is a big hand involved because "it's probably not good" when, you know, there are a ton of BB sitting out there.
In reality, from those that have played against me live, there are really few hands he can beat that I would play that way with that river ... but AK is one of them, especially when I know someone may be prone to make that "good laydown."
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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fyodor
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Ok so he folded Black Aces face up. Then I guess he calls your river bet if it isn't a heart or T-K.
So his thinking on the turn is "no point in raising because I'm probably beat but let's take a cheap showdown" and at the river it is "if I wasn't already beat, I am now."
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El Diablo
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Quote:
If we had that scenario above, how many people would've advocated folding?
I think almost no halfway decent 2+2 is not showing down AA hand here. I stand by my contention that your river justification is results-oriented and incorrect advice - I firmly believe you do not get a fold anywhere close to enough of the time. I also think your flop play is pretty poor given your read of his hand range.
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BarronVangorToth
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Quote:
I also think your flop play is pretty poor given your read of his hand range.
First, a "read" doesn't translate to "these are precisely the hands he has." When I (and I believe when most, if they think about it) say "read" they are talking about a likely range.
Second, this hand - and hands of this sort - are only possible against thinking opponents and not John Q. Sixpack. ONLY a "good" player would run through the scenario backwards of he (me) knowing what range I (him) has and therefore, if he (me) is doing this, then he (me) has me (him) beat.
Which is why I quoted the Theory of Poker bit about betting when you know you're getting called.
"Frank" and I talked quite a bit about 2+2 and the various books and my image was such that I knew that he knew that I knew how he'd play so he knew that I knew what he had there, ergo, when I did what I did I did it knowing what he had, so he did what he did.
But he didn't think about the fact that I knew that he knew that I knew what he was going to be thinking about what I thought.
Sometimes you really get to play the game outside of the game and it becomes The Game itself.
But, no, I don't think would be a standard move against someone who doesn't know what you know and doesn't know that you know what he knows and vice-versa. It is very hand-specific and not a general "how to" article.
I didn't say it was...
But we all get into situations whether you're in Vegas, Foxwoods, California, or wherever, where you are playing with people that know you and you know them and therein lies the opportunity for greater mind games.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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Quote:
First, a "read" doesn't translate to "these are precisely the hands he has." When I (and I believe when most, if they think about it) say "read" they are talking about a likely range.
What's your point? Your article talks about playing your hand in a way based on your expectation that he has one of four hands, and likely one of two hands. As I said before, based on what you think he has, your play is not good.
Quote:
Second, this hand - and hands of this sort - are only possible against thinking opponents and not John Q. Sixpack.
You characterize this guy as a thinking 2+2er. As I said in my previous response, I think just about all 2+2ers are getting to showdown v. you w/ their AA here.
Quote:
"Frank" and I talked quite a bit about 2+2 and the various books and my image was such that I knew that he knew that I knew how he'd play so he knew that I knew what he had there, ergo, when I did what I did I did it knowing what he had, so he did what he did.
But he didn't think about the fact that I knew that he knew that I knew what he was going to be thinking about what I thought.
Sometimes you really get to play the game outside of the game and it becomes The Game itself.
All of that is imo results-oriented thinking based on the fact that he did indeed fold AA this time. This article is bad advice because I am confident if you play this hand out against other "Franks," your play is a money-losing one.
Quote:
It is very hand-specific and not a general "how to" article.
I didn't say it was...
I'm not saying you said it was a general how-to. I am saying that the specific example as laid out is poor thinking and advice.
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Dids
CARDS IS FUN
Reged: 02/01/04
Posts: 21118
Loc: 215 lbs of fatness
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The only thing I can add to what El D has already said is that AA-QQ and AKs is an awfully narrow range for a 2+2er to be capping HU with.
Given that I think his range contains a lot more hands that you beat, your line seems a lot more straight forward.
If you feel strongly in your read, there's just no way a good player folds to a river donk bet like this often enough for it to work.
Edited by B Dids (10/04/05 05:20 PM)
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kidcolin
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En respuesta a:
The only thing I can add to what El D has already said is that AA-QQ and AKs is an awfully narrow range for a 2+2er to be capping HU with.
OOP I don't think it's terrible. I'd add JJ, and TT at a lower probability. Perhaps AQs if he read Barron's last article.
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kidcolin
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I agree with Diablo that this is spewing, and I agree with fyodor that given his turn call, you really should've expected a river call way more than what the pot was offering you.
Given your flop "head games" play, and your analysis of cards you don't want to see on the turn (any heart, J, T, or A), bluffing the turn was a good play. The turn is where you wanted a fold. After that you can expect a showdown just about every time.
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kidcolin
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En respuesta a:
En respuesta a:
I think he was getting 10:1 on the turn. It is just bad poker to call that turn if you are going to fold the river unimproved.
One of the hands he put me on was A J for the royal flush draw on the flop. I got there with the 10. If that's what I had. So it wasn't just him not improving ... it's me hitting the other hand that he thought I had.
Barron, given your analysis during the hand, you didn't think he thought that you had AJ , so you shouldn't be considering the T a "bluff out." At the time, you still thought he thought you had KK or QQ (you also mentioned KQ for two pair, but you'd have to know he'd think that MUCH less likely than KK or QQ given how you played preflop and the flop), meaning his turn call likely means a showdown.
Basically what you're saying in that quote is, "I got lucky the T hit, otherwise I might've gotten a call."
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tpir
nvr fr tpr is hr
Reged: 07/18/03
Posts: 4337
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(read)
Quote:
Given the four hands I put him on, I lost to three (queens, kings, and aces) and chopped with ace king.
+
(turn play)
Quote:
If I bet, he would probably fold.
=
LOL
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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In defense of Baron, the 2+2er nearly folded the turn and the river was a pretty good bluff card against a weak + thinking player.
The flop play really, really, really sucks. Baron makes his read then goes stupid-aggro with AK into a hand that is almost always going to see showdown.
BTW, am I the only one who thinks it's silly to think a known 2+2er locking horns with another 2+2er doesn't scare cap something like AQ/KQ/JJ/TT here a fair % of the time. It's been my experience that these confrontations often result in one or both parties over-playing their hand (like Baron did.)
With the flop line he took, the hand plays itself after the flop...
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El Diablo
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Quote:
the hand plays itself after the flop...
Yeah, take the free card that he luckily got on the turn when he picks up a flush draw rather than risking getting checkraised by KK/QQ (or even maybe AA) and having to call. Having not done that, check behind on the river after taking the stab on the turn and getting called. I really can't believe this article got published.
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Point taken on the turn.
Quote:
Having not done that, check behind on the river after taking the stab on the turn and getting called.
It's a live game, bloated pot and Baron smells weakness. I think the river was the only post-flop play I liked.
Quote:
I really can't believe this article got published.
Amen.
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SA125
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Barron, I honestly respect the fact you're making a serious attempt at being a well respected poker writer. It takes some guts to write about strategy at higher levels using $10-20 hands, especially on this site where most posters know many of the people playing $10-20 are bad, clueless, weak tight, etc.
At $10-20, keeping it simple and playing good, straight forward poker will usually get the money. Had "Frank" done it here, instead of making the major mistake of putting you on one specific hand, he wins. He didn't think at a higher level. He played it terrible.
You gave the hand credibililty by describing "Frank" as a knowledgable, thinking 2+2'er. You've suggested that, had the hand been posted, some would have suggested folding AA. I doubt you could find anyone in mid high who'd fold and I think, in retrospect, you know that's true.
There's no way any decent 2+2'er doesn't at least ch/call AA down h/u after it being capped pf and flop. It's almost disrespectful to even suggest a good player from here would.
You ran into a typical $10-20 weakie and tried to pass it off as a higher level of thinking. You missed. Keep trying though, because being a top shelf poker writer can't be easy. You will probably miss a lot. Like Teddy Roosevelt said, it's the man in the ring, willing to fight and lose in front of everyone, who deserves respect. Next hand.
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Quote:
You ran into a typical $10-20 weakie and tried to pass it off as a higher level of thinking.
Bingo.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
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Quote:
It takes some guts to write about strategy at higher levels using $10-20 hands, especially on this site where most posters know many of the people playing $10-20 are bad, clueless, weak tight, etc.
I certainly don't have a precise statistic, but I would be willing to wager that there are a lot of people from 2+2 that play at the live $10-$20 level or less. Do you believe that there should be no strategy perhaps beneficial at that level for this type of situation? And many of them, compared to the rest of the live field, ARE thinking about their game, trying to improve upon it, study, etc etc. So to think that every 2+2'er that even remotely knows what he's doing ONLY plays at the higher levels is not accurate ... and given the number of people that I think do play at these levels, these types of scenarios are important as, you are right, MANY people are very weak-tight as they have been (incorrectly) instructed by bad non-2+2 books over the years to be that way.
Quote:
At $10-20, keeping it simple and playing good, straight forward poker will usually get the money. Had "Frank" done it here, instead of making the major mistake of putting you on one specific hand, he wins. He didn't think at a higher level. He played it terrible.
He had me on a range of hands as I had three-bet pre-flop and capped the flop. I think the key to his read is my very aggressive play on the flop due to what my read of his should've been, and how he, in turn, interpreted that action. He did precisely what I thought he would do, which doesn't make him bad, as that's very results-oriented. Given what he thought, should he have folded the turn instead? Maybe. But the range he put me on was only solidified in his mind when I hit the third one on the river. I thought I could get him to laydown Aces or Ace-King on the turn given my flop action.
Quote:
You gave the hand credibililty by describing "Frank" as a knowledgable, thinking 2+2'er. You've suggested that, had the hand been posted, some would have suggested folding AA. I doubt you could find anyone in mid high who'd fold and I think, in retrospect, you know that's true.
This will fall into the "never will know" category barring someone remembering, I don't know, X amount of time from now. I 100% believe that there would be posts about folding. And, again, I don't think I would make this same play in this same fashion outside of someone who was so die-hard about studying various 2+2 books as that was the entire set-up.
Quote:
There's no way any decent 2+2'er doesn't at least ch/call AA down h/u after it being capped pf and flop. It's almost disrespectful to even suggest a good player from here would.
You are welcome to believe that anyone who has read 2+2 books wouldn't put this hand together in the same way that my opponent did ... but that simply isn't the case. In his defense, I think it's disrespectful to him to think ill of him due to his misreading me. I think a lot more people at this level than you think would've made the same error given the same circumstance, which is why I found the scenario worthy of spending X time on to put together.
Quote:
You ran into a typical $10-20 weakie and tried to pass it off as a higher level of thinking.
Again: when much of your competition at this level WILL be weak-tight players, should there be no strategy as to how to play against them in certain scenarios? It IS advertised as a $10-$20 game and, believe it or not, I think there are more people on this site when they walk into a live casino that would sit at the 10 game or less than would sit at the 20 or higher tables.
One way or the other, different games have different strategies based on your opposition, your image, and all sorts of other intangibles.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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SA125
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I went out of my way to try and come off as respectful and insightful because I respect your efforts and hate to pile on.
I could see how my suggesting straight forward play at $10-20 could be misconstrued as being played without strategy. I wasn't.
You're making this hand out to be a level upon level shootout is a joke. No more, no less. A weakie saw monsters under the bed. You want to keep insisting it's not the case, go ahead. I can't see how it will help your credibility.
Stop trying to say "Frank" played this hand on a higher level. He didn't. It was brutal. Just like everyone else has pointed out. AA was played horribly.
Diablo wondered how it got published. Would a list of others seconding that so bluntly help you realize you're off on this one, instead of some respectful criticism? It looks that way.
.
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El Diablo
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Quote:
I thought I could get him to laydown Aces or Ace-King on the turn given my flop action.
I will say this one last time. This is going to lose you money given the situation you described. You can disagree with me, that's fine. But I am confident that countless others who like me have put in many, many hours at these limits in the past before graduating past them would agree with my assessment of this situation. And by "this situation" I am explicitly including your description of this specific opponent profile.
Quote:
You are welcome to believe that anyone who has read 2+2 books wouldn't put this hand together in the same way that my opponent did ... but that simply isn't the case.
Please.
Quote:
which is why I found the scenario worthy of spending X time on to put together.
You were misled by a specific result into thinking that a specific line was good. I've tried to explain to you why it wasn't. It is up to you whether or not you choose to really think about why I'm saying that or just continue insisting that you are right.
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El Diablo
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SA, both of your posts did a very good job (in a very respectful manner) of elaborating on my thoughts on this hand and article.
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tpir
nvr fr tpr is hr
Reged: 07/18/03
Posts: 4337
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Quote:
Quote:
You ran into a typical $10-20 weakie and tried to pass it off as a higher level of thinking.
Bingo.
Either that or this was the first hand he raised post-flop the entire session. There are old rocks in AC that I would (and have) fold(ed) AA to in spots like this given the action because they are not putting in that many bets post-flop without 2-pair or better.
Maybe BVT is rocky like that....
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Quote:
I went out of my way to try and come off as respectful and insightful because I respect your efforts and hate to pile on.
I could see how my suggesting straight forward play at $10-20 could be misconstrued as being played without strategy. I wasn't.
You're making this hand out to be a level upon level shootout is a joke. No more, no less. A weakie saw monsters under the bed. You want to keep insisting it's not the case, go ahead. I can't see how it will help your credibility.
I didn't say that your posts weren't respectful OR insightful, I just don't happen to agree with everything you said. Hopefully you see that I do appreciate criticism AND discussion but, likewise hopefully, you would agree that my disagreeing with something you say doesn't mean that I don't appreciate you saying it. As I pointed out to someone else in a thread regarding either last month or the month before's article, I certainly appreciate discussion FAR more than none.
As far as your comment about a weak-tight player seeing monsters under the bed, I agree with you 100%. That is a main point of my article and with a number of posts I make in individual threads that far too many people (even those that are obviously trying to work on their game by participating in the 2+2 Experience) advocate what I see as often a weak-tight strategy and that simply isn't optimal.
Being weak-tight though doesn't make you bad ... oftentimes weak-tight players are winning players. I was a winning player for years utilizing what was effectively a weak-tight strategy, if you want to call it that.
A player who doesn't think about the game and is WORSE than a weak-tight player would've easily called me ... as would a player who does think about the game far more and isn't weak-tight.
Make sense?
Quote:
Stop trying to say "Frank" played this hand on a higher level. He didn't. It was brutal. Just like everyone else has pointed out. AA was played horribly.
Diablo wondered how it got published. Would a list of others seconding that so bluntly help you realize you're off on this one, instead of some respectful criticism? It looks that way.
Others seconding (or thirding) something I don't agree with won't alter what I see as fundamentally obvious. And, again, I do appreciate and want criticism but that doesn't mean that everything I hear I will agree with.
Thinking that "Frank" didn't play this at a level beyond the basic is incorrect. Yes, he played AA badly here. No, I wouldn't play it that way. Yes, I would've called. Yes, you would've. Yes, many would've. Yes, so would have players "worse" than "Frank."
But only by thinking about poker on the next level could Frank make that fold. He thought about what I thought he had and, seeing my actions, knew that I had him "beat" because he knew what I knew about him.
Now, if you say he wasn't thinking about poker on the level beyond that, you are absolutely correct. But the "basic" level of poker - this is my hand and I will put on blinders as to what others have - isn't what he was thinking. If he had been, he would've called.
He was thinking at the next level about what I thought he had and what I was in turn doing with that information.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
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Quote:
Maybe BVT is rocky like that....
I play fewer hands than some people and more hands than others; I doubt few that have played with me over an extensive period of time if they knew what a rock really is would consider me one.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Quote:
It is up to you whether or not you choose to really think about why I'm saying that or just continue insisting that you are right.
I know why you said what you did. Like SA, I appreciate you taking the time to comment. Hopefully you won't take my not agreeing with everything said as me dismissing you personally; with poker, oftentimes there will be disagreements as to the best line.
In this type of situation against this type of person when I had this type of image and this type of read, I think this type of line is best.
Granted, now that some of the people I play against will have read this...
Regardless, I see what you're saying, as I said, I don't think it's a standard line, but I think it is a non-traditional AND profitable way to do things when you are selective with such a maneuver.
Maybe I'm completely off base, but that's what said discussion is for.
And, again, for the record, thanks for taking the time to comment.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
In this type of situation against this type of person when I had this type of image and this type of read, I think this type of line is best.
I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but I really believe that this thread is emblematic of the reason why you have not been able to advance past the limits you're at. You continue to rehash the same points you made in your article without imo really considering why I and others are finding your play so obviously bad. Due to your vehement defense of your line and the fact that your article was published on 2+2, I had a couple of other experienced players take a look, just in case I was missing something. Before reading my thoughts, they instantly had similar responses as me re: your line. I'm done with this thread, but you might want to consider these things.
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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From the article:
Quote:
After directing me to my seat at the $10-$20 table, the Foxwoods floor man handed me my sign-in card and said, "Good luck, Barron." This caught the ear of an older gentleman who approached me and asked if I was the Barron from 2 + 2. "Frank" (not his real name) spoke about how he liked the slant of my articles expounding upon 2 + 2 doctrine, as he thoroughly studied the texts and tried to play in the fashion described.
From this thread:
Quote:
But we all get into situations whether you're in Vegas, Foxwoods, California, or wherever, where you are playing with people that know you and you know them and therein lies the opportunity for greater mind games.
Barron, in order for you to even THINK that your play here was +EV, you'd have to actually KNOW your opponent. According to your article, you just met him and know that he "studies" 2+2 books and boards. There are thousands of people who study them and don't think at a high level and make tough laydowns. When you've logged thousands of hands against a specific opponent, then you can start applying "mind games" type lines (e.g., Schneids and BK posts in the Mid-High forum, but even they would never fold AA here against each other).
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Nick B.
Member # 24
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Threads like this are why Diablo has such a huge fanclub.
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DeeJ
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 06/03/04
Posts: 2029
Loc: Flim-flammin'
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Mostly the dragon likes to snooze in his cave. But if you wake him up he'll flame with the best of them  before retreating to his "I'm done with this thread" dungeon.
And yes, "Frank" made a horrible fold. That's 95% of it.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Barron, in order for you to even THINK that your play here was +EV, you'd have to actually KNOW your opponent. According to your article, you just met him and know that he "studies" 2+2 books and boards. There are thousands of people who study them and don't think at a high level and make tough laydowns.
I agree; he wasn't one of those people and I knew that fairly quickly after he and I talked (suffice it to say that our chit-chat couldn't fit into a 1,000 word article).
Perhaps I figured out his type quicker than others would've, I don't know, but I don't even consider that even a facet of the equation.
Whether I met him that day or had played with him 100 straight sessions, I had 99% of him down by the time this scenario played out.
While El D is right that this isn't a good default play, I never said it was, but rather the right play due to how I saw the situation and how I knew he would in turn think about what happened.
Regarding his comment about my moving up in limits, up until less than a year ago I played seldom above $5-10. Nowadays, while I play higher limits, I'm a bit constrained in my area as Foxwoods seldom has above $20-$40 running.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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I should've also mentioned that the other faction of 2+2ers (i.e. the good ones) DO think on a higher level and DON'T make tough laydowns (because they're usually very silly). So you found the rare in-between-y who will think on a higher level, yet fold with a big hand in a big pot against a relative unknown? Something doesn't fit there.
Two months in a row you've written an article that solid players thought were off-base and results oriented, and not once have you thought "yeah maybe I f'ed up." It's quite apparent that when it comes to your articles, you're never wrong. That's a scary mindset to have, both as a poker player and as a writer.
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Quote:
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponent's cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose." — "The Fundamental Theorem of Poker" The Theory of Poker, pp. 18-19
In an article about a poker hand, would this quote ever NOT fit? How did this add value to the article?
A Caro quote would have been a better fit...
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 14174
Loc: Intrepidly Reporting
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Quote:
Given the four hands I put him on, I lost to three (queens, kings, and aces) and chopped with ace king. He fired out a bet.
The pot right now is $115. Given that you know you are essentially bluffing the whole way, your plan for the hand is to cap the flop and bet the turn and river, putting in $80 of your money to win somewhere between $155 and $175 depending on where you want him to fold. (Edit: I'm being charitable and assuming he checks the turn, BTW.)
So basically, you decide there's a 33% chance that, somewhere along the way, he is gonna fold enough of his set of (AA, KK, QQ, AK) to make this worth while.
How *did* this get published?
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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En respuesta a:
En respuesta a:
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponent's cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose." — "The Fundamental Theorem of Poker" The Theory of Poker, pp. 18-19
In an article about a poker hand, would this quote ever NOT fit? How did this add value to the article?
A Caro quote would have been a better fit...
His articles are about applying concepts in 2+2 literature. He always quotes what concept he's tackling at the beginning.
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
So basically, you decide there's a 33% chance that, somewhere along the way, he is gonna fold enough of his set of (AA, KK, QQ, AK) to make this worth while.
adanthar, I didn't check your math, but you just distilled into a simple, clear statement my fundamental problem with this hand and article. My issue was not with one bet, one street, etc. It was about the fundamentally -EV nature of this entire hand. Anyway, I'll stop writing about this hand now, and let your excellent summary do the talking.
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BeerMoney
DERG
Reged: 04/25/04
Posts: 4587
Loc: Getting Electrocuted.
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You're coming up on 13000 posts dude.
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
But if you wake him up he'll flame with the best of them
In my defense, I like to think that in most of my poker-related posts I provide a level of discussion and reasoning that would be unfair to characterize as "flaming."
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
Threads like this are why Diablo has such a huge fanclub.
I thought it was cuz from time to time I manage to bang some hot bitches.
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 14174
Loc: Intrepidly Reporting
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That's cool, because this was the one hand where I added things correctly before 6 o'clock this week 
Anyway, floating along and throwing out bluff bets and raises on three streets vs. a known big hand is a concept that does not have much of a place in limit poker.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
In my defense, I like to think that in most of my poker-related posts I provide a level of discussion and reasoning that would be unfair to characterize as "flaming."
Likewise in his defense, at no time did I say he was insulting / "flaming" in his posts to me; like I said somewhere above, I understand his point but I don't agree with it, and I do appreciate him taking the time to make it.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Two months in a row yu've written an article that solid players thought were off-base and results oriented, and not once have you thought "yeah maybe I f'ed up." It's quite apparent that when it comes to your articles, you're never wrong. That's a scary mindset to have, both as a poker player and as a writer.
It's quite apparent that you don't have me pegged in the slightest.
I CONSTANTLY think "well, maybe I messed up" - so I look at the situation and analyze.
Making outrageous claims of my mindset is ludicrous just because I don't believe errors were made in this particular situation nor the aforementioned article last month.
Thinking that people will automatically change their minds because a few people say something contrary to what they did or what they believe is nonsensical.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
floating along and throwing out bluff bets and raises on three streets vs. a known big hand is a concept that does not have much of a place in limit poker.
There were raises pre-flop and on the flop.
And too many people incorrectly believe that there isn't bluffing in limit poker.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
he is gonna fold enough of his set of (AA, KK, QQ, AK) to make this worth while.
Reread the article - right off the bat I decided that he had KK / AA.
The K and Q on the Flop with the one in my hand narrowed his hand right down to most likely the Aces (or possibly another AKs).
He knew it and I knew it.
Obviously no one expects him to fold a set; if I misread him pre-flop and on the flop, his turn action would've been wholly different. Him almost folding the turn made everything apparent - and I did have the nut flush draw.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Quote:
He always quotes what concept he's tackling at the beginning.
I got that part.
Quote:
A series of articles detailing concepts from the far boundaries of poker literature
The Fundamental Theorem of Poker is hardly the far boundary of poker literature and I'd be hard pressed to discuss an interesting hand where I couldn't speak to how it applied.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Theorem of Poker is hardly the far boundary of poker literature and I'd be hard pressed to discuss an interesting hand where I couldn't speak to how it applied.
You're right, the general theme of the article series this month isn't as "far boundaries" as other months.
If anything, the more applicable-to-the-theme-quote is the second in the article, not the first. The first just tied it together.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Quote:
Him almost folding the turn made everything apparent - and I did have the nut flush draw.
So why not talk about reads, tells, attacking weakness, etc. instead of dragging the FToP into this mess? How does this added information on the turn make your flop play retro-activly have merit? How does this hand contrast with how you'd play it online against an opponent with a similar profile?
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
How does this hand contrast with how you'd play it online against an opponent with a similar profile?
This hand isn't this hand online as, even with someone's stats, I couldn't put them on something as specific as I did here NOR could I trust them to lay anything down as I knew would be far more likely live with someone I had been talking to.
Many situations are live situations; this is certainly one of them.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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En respuesta a:
En respuesta a:
floating along and throwing out bluff bets and raises on three streets vs. a known big hand is a concept that does not have much of a place in limit poker.
There were raises pre-flop and on the flop.
And too many people incorrectly believe that there isn't bluffing in limit poker.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
He wasn't saying there's no bluffing in limit poker.. just that bluffing multiple times in a big pot against a big hand is a bad idea.
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DeeJ
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 06/03/04
Posts: 2029
Loc: Flim-flammin'
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 as that last one wasn't a poker-related post .. i consider myself flamed. j/k
edit: i thought i was safe b/c you were done with the thread?
Edited by DeeJ (10/05/05 05:50 PM)
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
He wasn't saying there's no bluffing in limit poker.. just that bluffing multiple times in a big pot against a big hand is a bad idea.
Make that "usually a bad idea" or "almost always a bad idea" and we'll be buttering our bread on the same side.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 14174
Loc: Intrepidly Reporting
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Quote:
Quote:
he is gonna fold enough of his set of (AA, KK, QQ, AK) to make this worth while.
Reread the article - right off the bat I decided that he had KK / AA.
The K and Q on the Flop with the one in my hand narrowed his hand right down to most likely the Aces (or possibly another AKs).
No, actually, it narrows it down to (1xKK, 3xQQ, 3xAA, 6xAK). Four of those fold to your three street bluff 0% of the time, so you need to have about a 95% success rate on folding the other nine.
Quote:
Obviously no one expects him to fold a set; if I misread him pre-flop and on the flop, his turn action would've been wholly different.
Yeah, there's no way KK or QQ checkraises there...
It doesn't matter anyway, though, because there is no part of this discussion that is at all relevant to the turn. You made your decision to bluff him off his hand on the flop so defend it *on the flop*. *On the flop*, you decided that you would put four small bets in there along with at least 2 big bets on the turn and river (if he checked) in an attempt to get him off the best hand. As anyone with a calculator can tell you, that plan sucks.
Quote:
Him almost folding the turn made everything apparent - and I did have the nut flush draw.
Congratulations; after you put $40 in with the worse hand, you were able to narrow your read further to the particular type of better hand your opponent held and acted accordingly.
That does not make this hand suck less.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Yeah, there's no way KK or QQ checkraises there...
I agree he would CR there ... which is why I specifically said it would've been wholly different from his about-to-muck-his-hand, which even more clearly told me he didn't have said set.
Quote:
Congratulations; after you put $40 in with the worse hand, you were able to narrow your read further to the particular type of better hand your opponent held and acted accordingly.
Here's a question: where would you fold my hand here? On the flop with top-pair top-kicker backdoor nut-flush / straight draw? On the turn with the TPTK NF draw?
I am curious as to where some people who don't like my line would alter it, given this specific situation with someone that I thought would be thinking enough to think beyond his hand:
Pre-flop: it's a cap.
Flop: here I can see an argument normally for NOT capping ... but ONLY by putting in that one small bet could I win this hand; calling the three-bet, calling the turn, and then folding on the river WOULD be interesting if I thought he couldn't fold. That 1 SB on the flop is what wins this hand a disproportionate amount of the time given the situation.
But, then again, folding that river is horrid with him possible having AK like me.
See the problem?
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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I thought I was done, but this is just so, ugh.... If this were not published in 2+2 magazine, I would not bother, but I imagine there are people who think that because it was published, it is by definition not a horrible article. It is, though.
Quote:
I agree he would CR there [if he had a set]...
Then, given your read on his range, why did you bet?
Quote:
which even more clearly told me he didn't have said set.
OK, so you figured out after not getting checkraised on KQxx two flush draws, that he doesn't have a set. Good work.
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Here's a question: where would you fold my hand here?
Who is telling you to fold?
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I am curious as to where some people who don't like my line would alter it
I, and I believe others, have already explained this.
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Flop: here I can see an argument normally for NOT capping ...
Why are you raising this flop?
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but ONLY by putting in that one small bet could I win this hand
I'll say it one more time. Results-oriented thinking. Or perhaps something you thought would sound cool for an article. This "I put in one extra bet on the flop (really you put in three extra bets) and risked getting checkraised on the turn (when I have to call the checkraise) so I could take it away from him the times he has AA and lays down" is just silly.
Quote:
That 1 SB on the flop is what wins this hand a disproportionate amount of the time given the situation.
Please.
Quote:
See the problem?
No. Please explain, given your reads in this hand, why call/call/call is not far superior to your line.
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
edit: i thought i was safe b/c you were done with the thread?
I thought so, too. I changed my mind.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Then, given your read on his range, why did you bet?
I could hit my flush and get the best hand on the river; or I wouldn't and I'd have to push him out in order to win the hand. If I checked the turn, I was going to lose / chop the hand UNLESS I hit my flush.
Quote:
No. Please explain, given your reads in this hand, why call/call/call is not far superior to your line.
Call-call-call is probably going to, if I'm lucky, earn me a chopped pot. That 1 SB on the flop (or, in your scenario where you call, so it would be 3) paints the picture for him.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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Fnord
Pooh-Bah
Reged: 03/17/04
Posts: 1709
Loc: Flop Turn River
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Quote:
Call-call-call is probably going to, if I'm lucky, earn me a chopped pot.
Calling down unimproved both gives you 2 cards to suck out and gives him the chance to spew off chips into you if he's over-playing a weaker holding because "he knows that you know." Why did you put him on so narrow of a range as AK/AA/KK/QQ given the pre-flop + flop action? If you were sure, why not just do your best Tommy Angelo impression and fold?
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 14174
Loc: Intrepidly Reporting
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Quote:
I am curious as to where some people who don't like my line would alter it
I assume not too many MHL posters have seen this article yet since they're not in this thread, so, since you said on page 1 that you should've posted this hand before writing about it, let's run a little experiment. What do you think will happen when I post this in MHL?
Quote:
With one EP limper, a tight 2+2'er in MP raises. I have A K in LP and 3 bet. It's folded back to him and he caps. I call.
The flop is K Q 8 . He bets. This is AA-QQ, AK 100% of the time. I...
Let's see if I get one 'raise' post from a respected poster. If this wasn't already written up I would put money on it.
Quote:
That 1 SB on the flop
Of the 13 hands in the AA-QQ, AK range, how many do not 3 bet your raise on the K Q 8 board?
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
I could hit my flush and get the best hand on the river
Given your reads and the action so far (you think a set is among his likely holdings, you think he will checkraise if he does have a set, he has already raised at every opportunity, etc.) and the likelihood of getting checkraised, this is just so fundamentally sickeningly bad.
Quote:
I wouldn't and I'd have to push him out in order to win the hand. If I checked the turn, I was going to lose / chop the hand UNLESS I hit my flush.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I've already made my thoughts on that quite clear.
Quote:
Call-call-call is probably going to, if I'm lucky, earn me a chopped pot. That 1 SB on the flop (or, in your scenario where you call, so it would be 3) paints the picture for him.
How about 3 extra SB, + 2BB the times he checkraises you on the turn (make that 3BB if you make the crying call at the end in huge bloated pot just in case he has AK), 3 extra SB + 2BB the times he calls down w/ AA, etc. Man, this thread just keeps getting sicker and sicker.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Why did you put him on so narrow of a range as AK/AA/KK/QQ given the pre-flop + flop action?
He capped it pre-flop; live at these stakes against me heads-up this is a rarity; with my knowledge of the player, my read I thought was going to be about as close as one can get.
Quote:
If you were sure, why not just do your best Tommy Angelo impression and fold?
Again: I knew that he knew that I knew what he had, so by doing what I did, I thought I could win the hand in this very specific situation.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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En respuesta a:
I could hit my flush and get the best hand on the river; or I wouldn't and I'd have to push him out in order to win the hand. If I checked the turn, I was going to lose / chop the hand UNLESS I hit my flush.
Right. Good point. Because you MUST win every hand.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Of the 13 hands in the AA-QQ, AK range, how many do not 3 bet your raise on the K Q 8 board?
As far as the thread goes, like I said, I do think it was a mistake for me not to have had a Small Stakes thread about a $10-$20 hand and then tie it into the article.
Unfortunately, between this thread and the article, the question is forever skewed as almost everyone is just going to know it's a Johnny Come Lately idea and the results are tarnished.
Alas.
As to your question, I think they all do. And...?
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
How about 3 extra SB, + 2BB the times he checkraises you on the turn
QQ I thought was fairly unlikely given the pre-flop action.
KK was MORE likely, but with two K's accounted for, likewise, not likely.
He has a set so seldom on this turn in other words that the CR, while a possibility, is far from a probability.
And I still don't agree that call is the move on the flop. But I'll agree that if you see it as a call, that the cap was +3 SB's.
Not betting the turn would've been a mistake.
And without those 3 SB's, it would then come down to checking the turn, and crying-call the river, hoping for a chop unless I spike my flush.
Yes, that would be sick.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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En respuesta a:
En respuesta a:
Of the 13 hands in the AA-QQ, AK range, how many do not 3 bet your raise on the K Q 8 board?
I think they all do. And...?
That means you're going into the turn blind. Your raise hasn't narrowed down his holdings any, since any of those hands will 3-bet.
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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En respuesta a:
And without those 3 SB's, it would then come down to checking the turn, and crying-call the river, hoping for a chop unless I spike my flush.
Back to El D's original point: results oriented much?
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Right. Good point. Because you MUST win every hand.
Let's not degenerate into sarcastic, inaccurate hyperbole...
But by making this play, I allow myself the chance to win the hand, and do so enough to make it the +EV move in this specific situation.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
Back to El D's original point: results oriented much?
You're welcome to have an alternate viewpoint to mine, but it would be helpful to the discussion to not continue to cast random dispersions that are far from the mark.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
That means you're going into the turn blind. Your raise hasn't narrowed down his holdings any, since any of those hands will 3-bet.
Calling the flop doesn't narrow his holdings either.
His holdings were narrowed the most by his pre-flop action, the type of player he was, and the board.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
Not betting the turn would've been a mistake.
"LOL"
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
Loc: MEAN Streets of FAIRFIELD, CT
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Quote:
"LOL"
Why do you want to save the 1 BB in this spot?
Checking there effectively means that you lose or, at best, chop if you don't hit the flush.
Bad, bad, bad.
Once you paint the picture, don't confuse the perspective by turning it upside down.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 14174
Loc: Intrepidly Reporting
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Quote:
As to your question, I think they all do. And...?
So why are you saying you are spending 1 SB? You're spending 3, at a minimum.
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
Bad, bad, bad.
Your vehement defense of your article and line is bad enough. To come make a statement like that about checking the turn is sickening. If I were Ed or Mason, I would be embarrassed to have published that article, but much more embarrassed by this thread.
Since you seem to be a big proponent of SSHE and routinely cite his book in your articles, I would love to hear Ed's thoughts on your line and thought process.
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ggbman
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Posts: 4926
Loc: the anti-baronzeus
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I'm going to make this as simple as possible. You give us a hand range you are 100% sure of. You chop with 1 possible holding of your opponents, and are drawing to runners against every single other combo except AA where you have 2 outs. Tell me, when you know this is the case, what should your objective for the hand be? I don't mean this rhetorically, try to seriously think about this question
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BarronVangorToth
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So why are you saying you are spending 1 SB? You're spending 3, at a minimum.
It's +1 SB to cap the flop.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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I'm going to make this as simple as possible. You give us a hand range you are 100% sure of. You chop with 1 possible holding of your opponents, and are drawing to runners against every single other combo except AA where you have 2 outs. Tell me, when you know this is the case, what should your objective for the hand be? I don't mean this rhetorically, try to seriously think about this question
Oh, oh, I got it! Hope he has AA and put in the maximum amount of bets possible and hope to move him off AA!!!!!! Did I get it?
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ggbman
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Very good! What flavor lollipop do you want?
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BarronVangorToth
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To come make a statement like that about checking the turn is sickening.
While I wouldn't go as far as to call it "sickening," I do find it quite surprising that someone who has been around here as long as you have and does, normally, provide quite good analysis would see checking the turn as anything other than giving up the hand.
Checking the turn and AA doesn't fold the river and I then must hit my flush.
Or I can bet the turn and get AA to lay it down, given my read of the player.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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ggbman
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To come make a statement like that about checking the turn is sickening.
This is the why people are calling you results oriented. If he is calling the turn, and a dud hits the river, he is calling. The card happened to be scary enough for him to fold this time i guess. The problem isn't so much the turn play as the general play of the hand. Instead of cheaply showing down a decent hand, you capped the flop and overplayed you hand PRAYING the board would co-operate and you could get a fold.
While I wouldn't go as far as to call it "sickening," I do find it quite surprising that someone who has been around here as long as you have and does, normally, provide quite good analysis would see checking the turn as anything other than giving up the hand.
Checking the turn and AA doesn't fold the river and I then must hit my flush.
Or I can bet the turn and get AA to lay it down, given my read of the player.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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adanthar
Possibly Too Level Headed
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Quote:
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So why are you saying you are spending 1 SB? You're spending 3, at a minimum.
It's +1 SB to cap the flop.
Oh okay, so you needed to put in that 1 extra bet after you've already thrown away the first two?
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El Diablo
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Of the 13 hands in the AA-QQ, AK range, how many do not 3 bet your raise on the K Q 8 board?
As to your question, I think they all do. And...?
Then why did you raise the flop? It's not because you think you have the best hand. It's not to gain info, since you think he is 3-betting with all of those hands. All it does is let you put in the maximum amount of money with a gameplan of moving a guy off a big hand, plus set yourself up for a turn checkraise some percentage of the time.
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BarronVangorToth
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Oh okay, so you needed to put in that 1 extra bet after you've already thrown away the first two?
"First two" - so you would've folded the flop? I see.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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I do find it quite surprising that someone who has been around here as long as you have and does, normally, provide quite good analysis would see checking the turn as anything other than giving up the hand.
I find it quite surprising that you still haven't seen how clearly correct I am with my analysis in this thread.
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adanthar
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...wow.
OK, let's try this one more time: Why did you put the first raise in on the flop, knowing you would be 3 bet, and knowing you are splitting or have 2 outs vs. his range?
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El Diablo
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Oh okay, so you needed to put in that 1 extra bet after you've already thrown away the first two?
"First two" - so you would've folded the flop? I see.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
Your response is ridiculous.
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BarronVangorToth
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It's not because you think you have the best hand. It's not to gain info, since you think he is 3-betting with all of those hands. All it does is let you put in the maximum amount of money with a gameplan of moving a guy off a big hand, plus set yourself up for a turn checkraise some percentage of the time.
I don't disagree with anything above.
This hand wasn't about showing down the best hand - given his pre-flop action and the flop, I never thought other than I had a potential chop situation (and then the flush outs on the turn).
This hand was about playing against a particular player that I pegged a particular way.
It's not always about having the best hand.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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ggbman
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Does someone really need to pokerstove your hand against what you say his range is here? It will makes this issue so black and white it's silly. I'm really not trying to be a dick here, but you have to realize how many times you have contradicted yourself. You give a hand range where there is NO reason to raise the flop that is correct. NONE. You don't have to fold, but you do have to not raise.
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BarronVangorToth
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Quote:
OK, let's try this one more time: Why did you put the first raise in on the flop, knowing you would be 3 bet, and knowing you are splitting or have 2 outs vs. his range?
This isn't what you said the first time. You said "first two" -- which meant my first two bets on the flop, meaning folding the flop if those bets were thrown away so they should've stayed in front of me. You'll have to forgive me if I thought you meant what you wrote.
There were 5.25 BB's out there. He bet 1 SB. I had outs to get a better hand... but if I didn't put in those 3 SB's, I'd have to get the better hand in order to do anything but chop (or win if in the unlikely event that I didn't have his hand range dead to rights).
By putting in the 3 SB's, I thought that he would be thinking about what I knew about him and he would do what I thought he would do and fold - at least enough to justify this line.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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It's not because you think you have the best hand. It's not to gain info, since you think he is 3-betting with all of those hands. All it does is let you put in the maximum amount of money with a gameplan of moving a guy off a big hand, plus set yourself up for a turn checkraise some percentage of the time.
I don't disagree with anything above.
This hand wasn't about showing down the best hand - given his pre-flop action and the flop, I never thought other than I had a potential chop situation (and then the flush outs on the turn).
This hand was about playing against a particular player that I pegged a particular way.
It's not always about having the best hand.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
OK, let me get this straight.
You raise the flop being pretty sure this guy has QQ/KK/AA/AK on a KQx board. You know he will 3-bet you with all the hands he has. So, you raise his flop bet, expecting him to 3-bet so you now can 4-bet and then keep firing all the way. You do this because you think you have a good enough chance to move him off AK/AA the times he has those hands. You also do this knowing that the times he has KK/QQ you will be checkraised on the turn, which you are betting.
Come on, man, quit trying to make this into something that it's not. It was poor thought process and a poor line.
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BarronVangorToth
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Does someone really need to pokerstove your hand against what you say his range is here? It will makes this issue so black and white it's silly. I'm really not trying to be a dick here, but you have to realize how many times you have contradicted yourself.
Pokerstove, while a good tool, won't matter in this situation.
I'm not sure where I contradicted myself, but if you could point it out, perhaps I can clarify the confusion.
I think what I have said in this thread pretty much goes along with the article (granted, I am far removed from the article at this time as I wrote it, I think, six months ago, but that's neither here nor there).
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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OK, let's try this one more time: Why did you put the first raise in on the flop, knowing you would be 3 bet, and knowing you are splitting or have 2 outs vs. his range?
This isn't what you said the first time. You said "first two" -- which meant my first two bets on the flop, meaning folding the flop if those bets were thrown away so they should've stayed in front of me. You'll have to forgive me if I thought you meant what you wrote.
There were 5.25 BB's out there. He bet 1 SB. I had outs to get a better hand... but if I didn't put in those 3 SB's, I'd have to get the better hand in order to do anything but chop (or win if in the unlikely event that I didn't have his hand range dead to rights).
By putting in the 3 SB's, I thought that he would be thinking about what I knew about him and he would do what I thought he would do and fold - at least enough to justify this line.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
Someone PM'd me and asked why I am bothering with this thread. Here is why. Not only is your line bad, your thought process and plan in this thread is EXACTLY the kind of poor results-oriented analysis that keeps players from being able to progress forward. Yet this was somehow published in the magazine and is now being vehemently defended by you here. This thread is exactly like the things I would hear from so-so 3/6 and 6/12 players when I used to play live LHE a lot. After getting a certain result, they'd go back and rationalize why it was such an awesome line and expert play. Except that it wasn't, it was bad play, plain and simple. But sometimes, the results reinforce their bad play, so they keep doing it. And that's why they are still so-so 3/6 and 6/12 players.
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ggbman
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El Diablo just said it perfectly
OK, let me get this straight.
You raise the flop being pretty sure this guy has QQ/KK/AA/AK on a KQx board. You know he will 3-bet you with all the hands he has. So, you raise his flop bet, expecting him to 3-bet so you now can 4-bet and then keep firing all the way. You do this because you think you have a good enough chance to move him off AK/AA the times he has those hands. You also do this knowing that the times he has KK/QQ you will be checkraised on the turn, which you are betting.
Come on, man, quit trying to make this into something that it's not. It was poor thought process and a poor line. "
His analysis of what you seem to be saying seems very accurate, so if there is an error in there, let me know. Assuming he is correct in what he thinks you are saying, the flop raise is bad. VERY BAD. To put this in perective, you are going to get raised on the turn by a set more often than you will get a player to lay down a better hand, and this doesnt take into account the extra 3 sb's you put in on the flop to gain this supposed folding equity.
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BarronVangorToth
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You do this because you think you have a good enough chance to move him off AK/AA the times he has those hands. You also do this knowing that the times he has KK/QQ you will be checkraised on the turn, which you are betting.
Him having QQ is very unlikely giving the pre-flop action at this level from this type of player. POSSIBLE, but I think the least likely (even less likely than AKs).
With two K's accounted for, him having the two case kings is likewise.
But, yes, otherwise you have it.
You have to remember that a lot of people (going to his side of the equation) will look at a hand like this and see his AA and see that I three-bet pre-flop and capped the turn and he will realize that, yep, he had the best hand pre-flop but now he's drawing to a chop (if I have AA) but he's probably beat so he'll just give up and fold to save those bets.
No, it's NOT a good way to think ... but it's the way many do, and when you're against that type of player (granted: you're not playing the 10 game so you're not running into this type as often as perhaps you used to) AND you know he thinks about poker enough to at least think about what you have and what you think he has, that this becomes a line for specific situations.
Rare situations, sure, but situations that do occur nevertheless, especially if you play against people you know often enough - and especially live.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
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To put this in perective, you are going to get raised on the turn by a set more often than you will get a player to lay down a better hand,
This isn't true, as he has a set in this spot seldom, as I said.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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when you're against that type of player (granted: you're not playing the 10 game so you're not running into this type as often as perhaps you used to) AND you know he thinks about poker enough to at least think about what you have and what you think he has, that this becomes a line for specific situations.
Many of us, including me, have put in countless hours at these types of limits against these types of players. I am absolutely taking into account the game profile and opponent profile when I describe how bad your play and thought process is in this situation.
You took a bad line and got lucky here. That is what happened. Nothing more.
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adanthar
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Quote:
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OK, let's try this one more time: Why did you put the first raise in on the flop, knowing you would be 3 bet, and knowing you are splitting or have 2 outs vs. his range?
This isn't what you said the first time. You said "first two" -- which meant my first two bets on the flop, meaning folding the flop if those bets were thrown away so they should've stayed in front of me. You'll have to forgive me if I thought you meant what you wrote.
No, I meant 'thrown away' in the sense that 'vs. his range on the flop, you win 7% of the time and tie 22%, so when you said 'raise' the first time around, instead of, say, 'call', you basically took out your wallet and gave him a bunch of money'. But OK, I can see how that can be misinterpreted. So let's keep going:
Quote:
There were 5.25 BB's out there. He bet 1 SB. I had outs to get a better hand... but if I didn't put in those 3 SB's, I'd have to get the better hand in order to do anything but chop (or win if in the unlikely event that I didn't have his hand range dead to rights).
By putting in the 3 SB's, I thought that he would be thinking about what I knew about him and he would do what I thought he would do and fold - at least enough to justify this line.
At this point, your flop thinking comes back to 'well, if I put in 3 SB in a pot I have virtually no equity in, I can put in 2 more big bets later in an attempt to bluff him off the best hand'. In other words, you are bluffing with 2 outs* from the flop on.
*Sidebar: 2 outs is generous, because we both know that when the turn is an ace, you're not folding, and that when he has queens and the river is the Qd, you're not folding, either, so when you say you have outs to the best hand, what that means is 'I am gonna call down anything that looks remotely favorable and kill my odds even more'. But back to the main show again:
You're bluffing into 13 hands, four of which have you crushed and will never fold and nine of which fold sometimes and call down other times. As I said earlier, in order for your brilliant flop plan to be profitable, he has to fold AA and AK around 95% of the time.
Is there anything in my post that you feel is not mathematically correct so far?
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ggbman
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Yes but because you say it doesnt make it law. The problem with your whole line of thinking is he folds better very "seldomly"
Again, do you really think there is a way here that EVERYONE in this thread, including some very well respected posters is really off and here and you are actually right? After all the discussion about this hand, it should be evident that many good players are telling you this was misplayed, and while you explained your rationale, it is still wrong.
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ggbman
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very well put
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BeerMoney
DERG
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I do find it quite surprising that someone who has been around here as long as you have and does, normally, provide quite good analysis would see checking the turn as anything other than giving up the hand.
I find it quite surprising that you still haven't seen how clearly correct I am with my analysis in this thread.
Is it possible this hand never even occurred?
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El Diablo
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I asked someone considered one of the top LHE players at 2+2, who has plenty of experience at low limits, what he thought of the article (NOT the thread). This was his response:
[16:38] i read the article
[16:38] his thought process blows
[16:38] PF
[16:38] he doesn't put his opp on a range nearly big enough
[16:38] flop, his play blows given what he puts his opp on
[16:38] turn is a clear check thru
[16:38] river i will sometimes make a play like this
[16:38] but here i never would
[16:39] because i'd never be in this situation
[16:39] turn is v bad though
[16:39] "he will probably fold"
[16:39] given his PF read
[16:39] that statement is just ludicrous
Just FYI.
Yeah, yeah, you had a badass read that was spot on, because he did indeed fold AA at the end.
I challenge you to find one 2+2er who has moved past the low limits and is now successful at bigger games who will say that your thought process and line here is good. There are plenty of egos at 2+2 and plenty of people who love to argue with me and prove me wrong, so if there's even a chance that your play was good, this should be quite easy for you to do.
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adanthar
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Quote:
You're bluffing into 13 hands, four of which have you crushed and will never fold and nine of which fold sometimes and call down other times. As I said earlier, in order for your brilliant flop plan to be profitable, he has to fold AA and AK around 95% of the time.
Is there anything in my post that you feel is not mathematically correct so far?
I will now correct my own post. As I stated in my first or second post in the thread, this bluff plan assumes that your opponent will check the turn. However, he won't always do that; a lot of times, he will bet instead.
I imagine that when he bets the turn, whether it's the 7 or the 2  , you aren't raising (well, I really hope not.) However, you also aren't folding. So basically, you are committing to calling him down in this now gigantic pot where he *could* have a split, and your bluff plan only works when he checks.
In other words, what really has to happen is that he check/calls, check/folds AA/AK 95% of the time. If he bets AA on the turn, anyway, that percentage goes up to around 130%.
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ggbman
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Dont be ludicrous, hes obvioulsy checking AA on the turn and folding the river UI. DUH!
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El Diablo
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I imagine that when he bets the turn, whether it's the 7 or the 2 , you aren't raising (well, I really hope not.)
Actually, raising would be consistent with his thought process here. In fact, given what Barron believes to be correct, I can't see how he could not raise the turn in that spot. I agree with you, though, that it would be horrible.
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blueodum
enthusiast
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Barron,
Did you estimate the chance that your opponent would lay down this hand before choosing this "jam the pot" strategy?
In theory, your approach would make sense if you could force a better hand to fold often enough to offset all the extra bets you put in as compared to a check-and-call strategy.
On the flop (i.e. when you decided to try this "force out" strategem), there was not nearly enough information available for you to make a good estimate of your opponent's chances of folding the best hand. There were still two cards to come, most of which would have reduced "folding" chances to near zero, given the range of hands you put him on.
I think that's what most posters are getting at when they claim your strategic approach on the flop was suspect.
You happened to catch the right cards against the right player on the turn and flop to increase your opponent's likelihood of folding. That was luck and does not then justify your flop play. Without significant potential fold equity, I think your flop approach is wrong, since you are a significant dog against the range of hands your opponent could have if the hand were played out to a showdown.
I can see why you might put the pressure on when the scare card came on the river, as a desperation play. But my question is: why did you think there was such great potential fold equity after the flop?
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Quote:
Again, do you really think there is a way here that EVERYONE in this thread, including some very well respected posters is really off and here and you are actually right?
I am quite certain that is the case, actually.
I completely see the points being made, understand the thought process behind them, realize that many of them are being said by players that have logged more hours and/or play higher limits more regularly than I do, but sometimes, even when a majority (or at least a majority participating in this thread) thinks a certain way, that doesn't necessarily make it correct.
Talking about this hand as extensively as I have the last few days with some folks (both here in this thread and off the thread), along with revisiting the thought process back when it happened as well as when I was writing about it X months ago, all confirms what I was thinking.
Whether some of the people want to insult my play an incorrectly categorize it as results-oriented or want to diminish my opinion since they play more / higher stakes / whatever, none of that is accurate or takes away the clear line here.
Non-traditional? Sure.
Correct? In this spot, yes.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
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Quote:
Did you estimate the chance that your opponent would lay down this hand before choosing this "jam the pot" strategy?
Pre-flop: 5.25 big bets.
Now let's say I did the whole call-call-call thing:
I'm putting in 2.5 BB, so is he, final pot: 10.25 BB.
I lose a vast majority of the time; I chop sometimes; I win almost never.
This scenario:
Cap the flop and bet the turn: costs 3BB
Even taking into account the times when I walk into a turn check-raise, it is still the +EV play with this type of opponent.
Those four words many are forgetting, even if they claim they are not.
Call off 2.5BB and invariably lose ... or put out 3BB on the flop and turn and have my BB on the river not be called enough to justify the action taken.
Granted, the X factor is how often will he lay it down to justify the action above; I thought it enough that it made the play correct, all variables taken into account.
Unfortunately, the value of X will always be in the mind of the beholder. People reading it will perhaps find X to make this line wrong; some won't. Whether more find on one side or the other doesn't matter to me as I find X to be on the side that was taken given the situation.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
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Quote:
I asked someone considered one of the top LHE players at 2+2, who has plenty of experience at low limits,
I appreciate you taking the time to validate your opinion, and far be it that I'm even questioning that you did talk to X person, but suffice it to say that I don't agree with them - especially when out of the gate they're off base thinking my basic range wasn't wide enough because, with this type of opponent, live, against me, this is precisely what they have or else they wouldn't be "this type of opponent."
Nothing against you - and, like I said, I normally find your posts informative and/or entertaining, but I think you just missed the point.
Oh, well.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
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Quote:
but I think you just missed the point.
If, after all this, you think I have written all this because I missed the point, that's just ridiculous. I know exactly what your point is. It's just misguided and wrong is all.
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El Diablo
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Quote:
I am quite certain that is the case, actually.
That you have made patently clear.
Quote:
Talking about this hand as extensively as I have the last few days with some folks (both here in this thread and off the thread)
I hope you invite those people to contribute to this thread. I would love to see some well thought out responses in support of your position.
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Tapirboy
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Quote:
Unfortunately, the value of X will always be in the mind of the beholder. People reading it will perhaps find X to make this line wrong; some won't.
We can find X mathematically though, and that will certainly help. I'm going to do it for the turn bluff only, because the complexity of including the river followup is huge.
We'll keep villain on Barron's range of hands; I hope most of his opponents in this thread would concede that his line has more merit if we can give villain AQ/JJ/TT as well.
AA: 3 combinations
AKs: 2 combinations
KK: 1 combination
QQ: 3 combinations, we'll discount this to 2 as a compromise.
On the flop, I'm giving Hero 1.75 outs for his backdoor draws and Ks, which I think is an appropriate estimate. He'll win or make a broadway chop enough for a little less than 4% equity, and chop with AK 25% of the rest of the time for 12.5% * 96% equity. Hero has about 16% showdown equity. Someone can stove this for more accuracy if they like (or may have earlier in the thread for that matter).
Calling down, Hero spends 2.5 BB in order to win 7.75 BB. Frankly, I think once you've established villain's hand range here, calling down is pretty bad. But since that's what Barron's various opponents seem to be advocating, we'll use that as the alternative.
Barron's actual line spends 3 BB to win 7.25 when villain folds the turn. It gets really complex once you take turn options into account, but let's just figure out how often villain needs to fold the turn to make this line as good as calling down.
In the calldown case, Barron should expect to get 1.64 BBs back, on average. So the EV of this line can be estimated at -0.86 BB.
In Barron's actual line, 15/45 turns (presuming he can fold Q ) will give him a draw that he has to see the river on, and he will get checkraised 3/8 of the time, meaning he'll put in two bets on the turn 12.5% of the time. 43% of the time that happens he will have 8 flush outs, 43 % of the time he will have 4 straight outs, and 14% of the time he will have 11 straight+flush outs, so 6.7 outs on average. He's put 4 BB into a 13.25 BB pot and will win it (and usually pick up an extra bet) 15.2% of the time. Overall these account for 1.9% of outcomes. The other 10.6% of times he calls the turn checkraise he loses 4 BB. The 25% of the time he folds to the checkraise he loses 3 BB.
5/8 of the time Barron doesn't get checkraised on the turn; in this case 16/45 cards will have improved him, because we don't have to fear quads or fulls. Now he has 6.82 outs, again because of including the Q , and will now win 15.5% of the time one of those cards turns. These wins are 2.9% of outcomes. The rest of the time he doesn't get checkraised, 59.6% of outcomes, Barron has 20% equity from his chops with AK.
So here's what we have if we alsways go to showdown using this line:
1.9 % of the time, Barron invests 5 BBs and gets back approximately 15, accounting for the times he makes his draw and villain doesn't pay off. EV: +0.19 BB.
2.9 % of the time, Barron invests 4 BBs and gets back approximately 13. EV: +0.261 BB.
10.6% of the time, Barron loses 4 BB. EV: -0.424 BB.
25% of the time, Barron loses 3 BB. EV: -0.75 BB.
59.6% of the time, Barron invests 3 BB and has 20% equity in an 11.25 BB pot (assuming he gets a free showdown, which he should). EV: -0.447 BB.
Our total EV using Barron's line, assuming villain never folds, is -1.17 BB. We lose approximately .32 BB with this line instead of the calldown.
So just running the turn bluff, we're investing .32 BB for an X chance of winning the 9.25 BB in the pot. In order to break even, villain has to fold only one time in 28.9, or 3.46% of the time.
He'll never fold QQ/KK, so he needs to fold AA/AK approximately 5.5% of the time he has them for this line to break even compared to calling down.
Remember, this is the turn bluff only. But if the turn bluff is profitable, we can evaluate the river bluff separately.
I don't think either of these is superior to calling the flop and folding the turn UI, but I definitely think there's a strong case for Barron's line being better than a calldown. It's clear that the necessary folding rates thrown about by his opposition here are ridiculous.
I'm sorry this isn't very coherent. I think you should be able to figure it out, though. Of course it doesn't answer the real question, which is "Does villain fold AA/AK more than 5.5% of the time?" But at least we've identified it, so you have something more concrete to argue about.
Edit: fixed a math error.
Edited by timprov (10/06/05 12:53 AM)
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Tapirboy
Reged: 11/01/04
Posts: 1892
Loc: I'm down with Other Poker Post...
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I screwed at least one thing up; editing.
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SA125
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 02/02/04
Posts: 3183
Loc: Peaks and Valleys
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is that neither David, Mason or Ed has stepped in, taken Barron on the side and tried to save him from himself here. And I mean that in a positive way. That's what mentors and supporters are suppossed to do.
Working to become an expert strategist playing poker is hard enough. Trying to become a published one is much, much harder. Ed hit a home run with SSH. But he had help.
Here's what you don't get Barron. Had this hand been posted in a forum, it'd be long gone by now. No big deal. No matter how much you defended it.
The fact that you are writing in the 2+2 magazine as a strategist, pretty regularly now, is entirely something different. There's a much higher standard. You're advising and teaching others how to play and using this hand as an example.
This hand should have been written to show why making a fold on the river for 1 bet in limit holdem can be, as DS describes and you love to quote, catastrophic. This wasn't BB NL poker. 1 bet gets him a showdown with an overpair there. Bad fold. Good lesson in there.
You've made a mistake with this hand. There's no harm in that. The only thing worse than making a mistake is not admitting it. If you played this hand, this way, against a knowledgable 2+2'er, you would have lost. And more than you should have in the process. At this point, how you can not admit that is the case is beyond comprehension.
Do yourself a big favor. Step back, let it go and start working on another hand that does a better job of illustrating your knowledge of the game. That'll do more for you than refusing to admit you couldn't have been wrong on this. I honestly can't believe they haven't told you this yet.
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El Diablo
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Quote:
This hand should have been written to show why making a fold on the river for 1 bet in limit holdem can be, as DS describes and you love to quote, catastrophic.
Excellent point, SA. There was indeed a good article to be taken from this hand, just not the one that was written.
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El Diablo
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Loc: Parts Unknown
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"Does villain fold AA/AK more than 5.5% of the time?"
You have made some fundamental errors in arriving at this number. I will let you figure them out, you are clearly smart enough to do so. If you don't, I'm sure someone not as old and tired as me will explain it.
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bicyclekick
Luckbox
Reged: 10/15/03
Posts: 5286
Loc: waiting to ski
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Wow. That's some ugly freaking play. Most 2+2ers are capping jacks there, and some may be capping with hands like JTs etc. Given your hand range...what in the world are you doing on the flop?
I can't believe that guy folded his aces. Bad play.
I can't believe this got published either. If anything it should be "how not to mis-apply concepts and f up a hand"
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daryn
Hit and run artist
Reged: 04/24/03
Posts: 18335
Loc: Boston
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Quote:
Wow. That's some ugly freaking play. Most 2+2ers are capping jacks there, and some may be capping with hands like JTs etc. Given your hand range...what in the world are you doing on the flop?
I can't believe that guy folded his aces. Bad play.
I can't believe this got published either. If anything it should be "how not to mis-apply concepts and f up a hand"
yeah i was also mildly surprised at the very narrow preflop range given to the villain
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
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Loc: get yo fishin right
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Quote:
We'll keep villain on Barron's range of hands; I hope most of his opponents in this thread would concede that his line has more merit if we can give villain AQ/JJ/TT as well.
Not really. If we give opponent that range (which I think we should), calling the flop looks even better.
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kidcolin
Modbuster
Reged: 01/29/05
Posts: 9576
Loc: get yo fishin right
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Quote:
Quote:
Wow. That's some ugly freaking play. Most 2+2ers are capping jacks there, and some may be capping with hands like JTs etc. Given your hand range...what in the world are you doing on the flop?
I can't believe that guy folded his aces. Bad play.
I can't believe this got published either. If anything it should be "how not to mis-apply concepts and f up a hand"
yeah i was also mildly surprised at the very narrow preflop range given to the villain
I personally think it was so as to fudge the math and rationalize the play.
I will agree that there are a lot of players who won't cap outside of AA-QQ, AK, especially OOP.. however, these same players aren't likely to fold any of those on that board, ever.
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iopq
stranger
Reged: 10/06/05
Posts: 14
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First of all, the numbers are off. Second of all, you analyze calling down TO THE RIVER vs. firing a bet on the turn. Ugh.
If he calls the turn and barron bets again on the river, he's losing 4 bets.
What happens when he gets raised on the river, folds and the opponent flips up AKs? Probably won't happen that often... but how often does the guy lay down aces?
And here's the pokerstove:
Board: Kh Qh 8d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 19.0965 % [ 00.08 00.11 ] { AdKd }
Hand 2: 80.9035 % [ 00.70 00.11 ] { AA-QQ, AKs }
Board: Kh Qh 8d 7d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.7980 % [ 00.21 00.09 ] { AdKd }
Hand 2: 70.2020 % [ 00.61 00.09 ] { AA-QQ, AKs }
Board: Kh Qh 8d 7d Tc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.1111 % [ 00.00 00.11 ] { AdKd }
Hand 2: 88.8889 % [ 00.78 00.11 ] { AA-QQ, AKs }
On the turn I'd say the odds of the guy folding is under 5%
On the river the odds of the guy folding is also below 5%
These are freak occasions, not the rule. You're spending 1.5BB to give yourself the chance to bluff by capping the flop. Then 2 BB bluffing. Even if he folds 10% of the time total on either the turn or the river it wouldn't be justified. Because he checkraises you a lot of the other time and you have to pay it off.
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
Posts: 4607
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Quote:
If you played this hand, this way, against a far more knowledgable 2+2'er that you would find at limits well beyond $10-$20, you would have lost.
FYP
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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Quote:
This hand should have been written to show why making a fold on the river for 1 bet in limit holdem can be, as DS describes and you love to quote, catastrophic.
That is clearly one of my points with this article - which you obviously arrived at - and very, very true.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
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Quote:
yeah i was also mildly surprised at the very narrow preflop range given to the villain
This type of player at $10-$20, right or wrong, isn't capping it pre-flop with jacks. I realize many players would, I realize many better players would as well, but we aren't talking about playing against people that aren't there, but rather the person there, and the person sitting in the seat has one of those four hands as close to 100% of the time as you can get.
Which is one of the points - him knowing that I knew that.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
Reged: 03/27/04
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Quote:
On the turn I'd say the odds of the guy folding is under 5%
On the river the odds of the guy folding is also below 5%
Suffice it to say that this player is folding far more often than once every 20 times in this spot.
Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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El Diablo
Carpal \'Tunnel
Reged: 09/02/02
Posts: 33802
Loc: Parts Unknown
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Quote:
Diablo: I also think your flop play is pretty poor given your read of his hand range.
Barron: First, a "read" doesn't translate to "these are precisely the hands he has." When I (and I believe when most, if they think about it) say "read" they are talking about a likely range.
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Quote:
Daryn: yeah i was also mildly surprised at the very narrow preflop range given to the villain
Barron: the person sitting in the seat has one of those four hands as close to 100% of the time as you can get.
"LOL"
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BarronVangorToth
Flop EV Calculator
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