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General Gambling >> Sports Betting

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tech
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 2041
Loc: Sports betting
Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post)
      #2855886 - 07/13/05 02:20 AM

For my Pooh-Bah post, here are a few general tips that might help some new (or even experienced) 2+2 sports bettors. I will try to make each point short and perhaps generate some discussion. Good luck to all.

(1) If you can routinely find basketball (college or pro) lines that are 1 point better than consensus lines, it is almost impossible to lose long-term.

(2) Scalping, middling and/or simply betting rogue lines is generally a much surer path to profits than trying to handicap games.

(3) Understanding of mathematics and probability distributions is just as important, if not more, to success in sports betting than handicapping ability. Simply estimate the true line (that’s where handicapping comes in), then look at how far the posted line deviates from the true line. Using a probability distribution estimated from prior results, you should be able to gauge the strength of a play by judging the distance (in %) of the posted line from the true line.

(4) I have not seen any sport that cannot be beaten long-term. We can argue all day about which one is the “easiest” to beat, but they are all beatable for a good amount.

(5) The lines on many prop bets are soft, soft, soft. This is because not nearly as much thought goes into these as into the game lines.

(6) Don’t be afraid to bet “bridgejumpers.” These are props/bets where you lay big odds, like -400, -1000, etc. Most bettors want to TAKE big odds, not lay them. Consequently you will often find some real values laying large odds.

(7) Before you make a bet, ask yourself why there would be value in the bet. Ask yourself why the sportsbook would knowingly accept a bet from you if it were in your favor, not theirs. If you think the answer to this question is simply because you think you are better at assessing the teams than the linesmakers, you are almost certainly wrong. As an example, if your betting angle is to fade the general betting public (this is what I do most often), then the answer is likely that the book is willing to take on a little sharp action to manage the risk on the other side.


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Zygote
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 01/22/05
Posts: 2051
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: tech]
      #2856109 - 07/13/05 03:00 AM

is sports betting harder to beat than middle limit hold em online, in your opinion?

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tech
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 2041
Loc: Sports betting
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: Zygote]
      #2856246 - 07/13/05 03:27 AM

Quote:

is sports betting harder to beat than middle limit hold em online, in your opinion?




Depends on what you define as middle limits I guess, along with how good you are at poker. I only play at the Party skins, so that is my frame of reference. IMO, poker games are so soft right now at low-middle limits that there are not many easier ways of making money (and I'm not even that good). The problem comes in that it is increasingly harder to make larger amounts of money, because most players eventually reach a level at which they cannot win.

On the other hand, sports betting scales much easier because you can basically bet 1000 per game almost as easily as you can bet 10 per game (sometimes more difficult to get a good line, but generally not too bad).


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CCx
HUHU for nickels


Reged: 11/04/04
Posts: 4776
Loc: looking at the pelican cam
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: tech]
      #2856990 - 07/13/05 06:54 AM

congrats on your new status, pooh-bah

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mrbaseball
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 02/14/03
Posts: 2622
Loc: shortstacked on the bubble
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: tech]
      #2858356 - 07/13/05 12:30 PM

Quote:

As an example, if your betting angle is to fade the general betting public (this is what I do most often)




I like doing this too. Primarily in college hoops but I have had limited NFL success too although I haven't tried in the past few seasons.

Do you have a good source of consensus? How are you confident the public is on one side or the other? I'm thinking of trying this approach this coming college and NFL football season but I'm not sure what the best sources for consensus is. In the past I have used the bigguy.com consensus board and that generally works real well for college hoops but I am unsure if it is effective in football.


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Caldarooni
Carpal \'Tunnel


Reged: 11/15/04
Posts: 3568
Loc: San Diego
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: mrbaseball]
      #2858522 - 07/13/05 12:50 PM

Are there sources (books, websites, etc.) I can use or should use to become a better sports bettor?
My poker game went through the roof after reading certain books allowing me to look at the game in a different way and I wonder if there are things that can be recommended for similar success in the realm of sports.
-SC


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tech
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 2041
Loc: Sports betting
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: Caldarooni]
      #2859366 - 07/13/05 02:22 PM

Quote:

Are there sources (books, websites, etc.) I can use or should use to become a better sports bettor?
My poker game went through the roof after reading certain books allowing me to look at the game in a different way and I wonder if there are things that can be recommended for similar success in the realm of sports.





Wong's book is probably the best as far as getting the right mindset. A lot of people (Fezzik, etc.) always rip Sklansky's writings on sports betting, but I actually think the sports chapter in "Getting the Best of It" is not bad. Other than that, the best info comes from the Internet. I have learned more from other posters on MajorWager, Fezzik's Place, SSB, and TheRX than I have learned anywhere else.

Here is the reason you don't see as much good stuff on sports as you do poker. In poker, if someone tells 10,000 people how to play a hand, it really doesn't affect their own poker games that much, if at all. On the other hand, if for example I were to tell exactly which props I like to bet, someone else could easily beat me to the lines and then I would lose $$$. So it is very -EV for sports bettors to tell intricate details of how they do things. Generalities are fine of course, but specifics hurt.


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tech
Pooh-Bah


Reged: 04/02/04
Posts: 2041
Loc: Sports betting
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: mrbaseball]
      #2859455 - 07/13/05 02:30 PM

Quote:

Do you have a good source of consensus? How are you confident the public is on one side or the other?




I sometimes use the posted stats from sportsbook.com and others to verify, but mostly it is pretty obvious which way everyone is betting. If in doubt, I just talk to some of my non-sharp buddies to get their feel for the game. If they all say the same thing, then I have a pretty good idea of what Joe Public thinks about the game.


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lastsamurai
Old Hand


Reged: 03/07/05
Posts: 1736
Loc: building a bankroll for footba...
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: tech]
      #2860749 - 07/13/05 04:33 PM

The great thing about sports betting is once the season is over you have 4-5 months to look back at all your bad beats and mistakes (unless you are a 3 star letterman)

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TheGame1020
addict


Reged: 05/13/05
Posts: 441
Loc: hee hawing it up
Re: Some General Betting Tips (My Pooh-Bah Post) [Re: tech]
      #2874915 - 07/15/05 02:53 AM

Wagerline offers consensus %s. It is part of the Covers network. This is by far the single most important factor when betting sports. Fading the public is key, "the masses are asses" as they say! This method is especially profitable in the NFL, to mean it seems like fading public favs, the wins are almost automatic!

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