Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 02:21 PM
Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

It's a lock, Morales over Pac-man. Price is -125 right now so jump on it. Last fight was practically a mismatch. Pac-man's style lacks creativity for another fight against Morales but there's $$ in it given all the mexican and filipino fans out there so the show must go on.

Indy


kyro
(Nose Pwner)
12/19/05 02:46 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

morales is -109 at pinny. why the discrepancy?

JohnGalt69
(stranger)
12/19/05 03:19 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Did you watch the first fight? Very close and without the gloves mix-up, pac would have won.

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 03:38 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I disagree, Pac lost easily. He doesn't connect with his punches that well, and its hard to see this if you aren't a trained student of the game. Pac has lost a few recently and his "mayorga-ish" style of rushing and slugging was opened and exploited after his win over Barrera.

He will fall,

Indy


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 03:40 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Another easy bet is the over for this fight @ -165 on sportsbook.com

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 04:13 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Confirmed, able to lock in Morales -109 at Pinny. I agree with Indy, i like this play. A little far out though: we're a month away from the fight.

Pinny likewise has over 11.5 at -165, not touching that yet.


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 04:51 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Better lock it in now at these great prices before the world wakes up and realizes that my little sister could beat Pacquaio.

Indy


20Five
(old hand)
12/19/05 06:05 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

in at (-110)

would be for more but its far away... gl thanks indy



Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/19/05 06:09 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Locked already at -109 when you first posted

For those following along, Morales already up to -110 on Pinnacle. And like Indy says, is likely headed up from there.


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 09:42 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I laid the entire sportsbetting roll on Morales to win str8 up. So if this one doesn't hit, you guys won't be the only ones missing out. I am very very very confident that this one is coming in good. So confident that if I miss I will never post again in this forum.

Indy


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 09:51 AM
Morales even knows it

I don’t think he’s going to learn how to do it any better than from the first time. His problem is not going forward because he is good coming forward. But his problem is going backward and that is what I will do, back up Pacquiao all night long.
- Erik Morales


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 10:54 AM
Re: Morales even knows it

Good stuff Indy, but I'd hate to lose you from this forum just because of one miss.

I've got a considerable chunk riding as well, but I can't afford to tie up more of the bankroll at this time. When bodog picks up the line I might be able to add some more, but at this time I can't lock up too much of my pinnacle money until we finish the NFL.


arardor
(member)
12/20/05 10:59 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

To help make my decision how much is this bet for?

VarlosZ
(Pooh-Bah)
12/20/05 11:17 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

I laid the entire sportsbetting roll on Morales to win str8 up.




You do seem to know your stuff when it comes to boxing, so I put a unit on Morales despite knowing little about either fighter. I have to ask, though: is this an exaggeration? Do you not intend to place any other bets for a month?


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 11:32 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I'm not that confident on football betting so this is the only bet I will make between now and 1/26/06. I've laid thousands on this fight after extensive research.

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 01:54 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

FWIW this is down to -105 on both sides on Pinnacle at the moment... I went ahead and doubled my amount, at -105... dollar cost averaging

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 02:09 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Has anyone else done any HW on this fight? I'd like to hear if anyone disagrees that this is free $$ or not.

Indy


freewheeler
(addict)
12/20/05 02:10 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Not sure how much action it takes to move a line like this at Pinny, but it seems likely to me that more than just squares are backing Pacman... But GL to you Indy. Good of you to share your view... And Happy Plunging!!

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 03:37 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Pacquiao gaining the odds

BY DENNIS PRINCIPE, tempo.com.ph

With boxing superstar Manny Pacquiao close to becoming an overwhelming favorite in his upcoming bout, it will now be all up to the Filipino boxer to translate this into victory come fight night.

The 27-year-old Pacquiao is scheduled to meet Mexican icon Erik Morales on January 21 in a 12-round super-featherweight rematch to be held at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas.

In another welcome development for Team Pacquiao, Jose Luis 'Maestro' Lopez is somewhat feeling the heat of probably the biggest break of his career as a trainer now that he is working with one of Mexico's legendary boxers.

The 57-year-old Lopez replaces Morales' father Jose after the Mexican warrior's disappointing loss to Zahir Raheem last September.

Lopez admitted that his tenure as trainer for Morales will all depend on their performance versus Pacquiao.

With a little over a month before the fight, Lopez said that he has yet to watch tapes of Pacquiao's previous fights and study whatever inputs he can throw in for him to be a factor for the Mexican superstar.

The 29-year-old Morales, currently holding camp in Queretaro, has tapped southpaw boxers who has been simulating Pacquiao's, rugged on-rush style, apart from working on his strength and speed.

Morales, a unanimous decision victor over Pacquiao in their first encounter last March, will commence workout on January 17.

On the other hand, Pacquiao still maintains a potent rapport with celebrated American trainer Freddie Roach as they are again working together at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood to devise their strategies.

After being installed a 7-5 betting favorite by Wynn Sportsbook, Pacquiao also leads Morales in HBO's online poll on which boxer fans think will win the return bout.

Meanwhile, teenage sensation Rey 'Boom-Boom' Bautista leaves for El Cajon, California today where he is set to rumble with Mexican warrior Gerardo Espinoza in an 8-round bout in a telefutura-televised promotion this weekend at the Sycuan Casino.

Bautista has been training at the Wild Card Gym since December 4 and will be joined by Roach, conditioning coach Justin Fortune, local trainer Edito Villamor, American agent Mike Koncz and benefactor Tony Aldeguer.

http://www.tempo.com.ph/news.php?aid=19469


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 03:43 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Pacquiao trains in LA gym

By REY DANSECO, The Manila Times Contributor

Manny Pacquiao believes he is more comfortable training in the gym where he started his way to stardom.

Thinking his rematch against Erik Morales next month is the fight of his life, Pacquiao will not prepare in a secluded training camp in Phoenix, Arizona and instead will stay at the Wild Card Gym in the Hollywood area in Los Angeles, California.

"I like staying in L.A.," MaxBoxing.com reporter Steve Kim quoted Pacquiao as saying in what he described the way the Filipino icon speak "in his ever-improving English."

"Our decision was to train here in Hollywood, so that’s final," Pacquiao confirmed.

Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, said Phoenix might offer several distractions to the former World Boxing Council flyweight and International Boxing Federation super-bantam champ compared with Hollywood, where they can control the throngs of his Filipino fans trying to get a glimpse of their ring idol.

"If we go to Phoenix, Arizona, they have pool halls there, they have casinos there, they have dog racing there and horse racing there; Manny’s comfortable here," Roach told Kim.

"He knows his way around a lil’ bit, he has some friends, and the thing is, he’s not going out partying and stuff like that. So Manny doesn’t need a babysitter, he knows what’s at stake here."

Roach explained he can easily pick up sparmates for Pacquiao and "everything we want right here."

Pacquiao is treating the January 21 return bout with Morales at Thomas & Mack Arena in Las Vegas as "the biggest fight" and "very important" in his life.

"Oh, it’s big, it’s very big and important," said Pacquiao, who celebrated his 27th birthday Saturday with a small party along with Roach, his buddy Buboy Fernandez and his new management trio of Shelly Finkel, Keith Davidson and Nick Khan.

"I need to win this fight because everybody, all my countrymen are hoping for my victory and they believe I’ll beat him."

Meanwhile, in Queretaro City, Mexico, Morales has been wearing the same puncher’s glove -- Mexico’s Cleto Reyes -- that Pacquiao will use in their bout.

Morales, who usually wears Winning gloves, has made the switch to match Pacquiao’s punching power.

Morales is practicing under new trainer Jose "Maestro’’ Luis Lopez Sr., who replaced his longtime trainer and ailing father in the past three weeks. Their training camp will be until January 17.

"What he needs is power," said Lopez, 57. "The camp will be finished on January 17 and by then he will be a hundred percent [ready] to face Pacquiao."

When they both had Winning gloves, a brand made in Japan, Morales earned a unanimous decision win, with identical 115-113 scores from the three judges, over Pacquiao in March.

Pacquiao rebounded from that defeat by knocking out Hector Velazquez in the 6th round while Morales lost to Zahir Raheem on the same card on September 10 at Staples Center in Los Angeles

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=25285


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 03:49 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I'm no expert boxing handicapper. I'm a lifelong boxing fan, and a longtime boxing bettor.

I like Morales here. I'll like it even more if the line shifts and we start getting some odds. I'll probably sit where i'm at, dollar-cost averaged to -107, waiting for late movements.

Public likes the young power puncher, that's no surprise. Morales is one of the all-time greats, and has something to prove in this fight. I'm with you, Indy.


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 03:50 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

What is any of this saying? Not much. Its just pre-fight optimism. Manny is still fighting a much bigger man in Morales and a much better boxer to boot. Morales is known to connect well and has just come off a fight with one of the best fighters around; Raheem. Raheem gave him a strong fight at a higher weight class recently and even out-pointed him for the victory. More than ever, Morales is hungry and fit and will easily win the necessary rounds to defeat a sloppy and undisciplined Pacquiao.

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/20/05 03:52 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

yeah not a lot of detail in either, but i thought they were interesting.

Posted the first one, re: Pacquiao's gaining odds (although no real explanation is given).

Article 2 posted mostly for the quotes from Pacquiao, and the glove change from Morales which I do find extremly relevant. More power from Morales could be devestating here...


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/27/05 03:43 PM
FWIW, latest line from Pinnacle

951 Erik Morales -115
952 Manny Pacquiao +105

So if you've waited, the line's already moving away from us.

Can't find anyone else among the "top-tier" books carrying it this far in advance.


Tuds75
(addict)
12/27/05 06:30 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Few things:
This board is REALLY getting into a fight that is just under a month and doesn't involve an American fighter.

First: Indy, Raheem is not one of the top fighters out there as you said in a previous post. He is a good boxer who fights a tough style to beat (much like Winky). Morrales lost the Raheem fight because he got to confident and kept moving up in weights. Their was talking after beating Raheem and then Pacman again that he would fight Castillo or Corrales. Morrales was looking for big fights in higher weight classes and then fighting Raheem who has the worst boxing style for Morrales (Morrales needs someone to pressure him and stand in front of him).

2nd: Morrales was trained by his father, a good trainer, but not a really a professional trainer. Fathers as trainers has a tendancy to have thier sons succeed, but then plateau. The father trainer do push their sons the same way they did after their sons has gained success. Morrales getting a new trainer will improve his greatly. Morrales will be a fresh fighter and look years younger once in the ring.

3rd. This has been said before, but Pacman fights the perfect style for Morrales. He keeps coming foward throwing losts of punches and lots of BIG punches. Morrales is a great counterpuncher and Pacman leaves many openings to get countered. Pacman said if the gloves were Reyes he would have KO'ed Morrales, that is an excuse. Pacman would have a hard time KO'ing Morrales with a baseball bat in his hand. Morrales can take a punch like very few fighters ever could. He wobbles from perfect punches, but doesnt go down. Pacman has power, but so does Barrera and Morrales took his best 3 times.

The price on this fight will not move a whole lot. Morrales is the better fighter, but he lost his last fight. Pacman is the bigger puncher so he will always have people believing in him. Don't worry too much about finding the Perfect price, as long as you are able to get Morrales at anywhere from -105 to -130, its a good bet. Morrales might even be the dog by the time the fight starts to lets not get too anxious or worried about making the bet now.

The over looks good, but I think their could very well be an early stoppage due to cuts (accidental or inflicted). Pacman leads with his head a lot and Morrales is known to throw a few dirty shots during ('bow or 'butts). There will be blood and who knows how a doctor could see a cut. Morrales will probabally NOT knockout Pacman, so taking Morrales by DEC at 2-1 or 12-5 is nice bet.

Love to See the Boxing Chatter Back

Tuds


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
12/28/05 09:33 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:


Few things:
This board is REALLY getting into a fight that is just under a month and doesn't involve an American fighter.

First: Indy, Raheem is not one of the top fighters out there as you said in a previous post. He is a good boxer who fights a tough style to beat (much like Winky). Morrales lost the Raheem fight because he got to confident and kept moving up in weights. Their was talking after beating Raheem and then Pacman again that he would fight Castillo or Corrales. Morrales was looking for big fights in higher weight classes and then fighting Raheem who has the worst boxing style for Morrales (Morrales needs someone to pressure him and stand in front of him).

2nd: Morrales was trained by his father, a good trainer, but not a really a professional trainer. Fathers as trainers has a tendancy to have thier sons succeed, but then plateau. The father trainer do push their sons the same way they did after their sons has gained success. Morrales getting a new trainer will improve his greatly. Morrales will be a fresh fighter and look years younger once in the ring.

3rd. This has been said before, but Pacman fights the perfect style for Morrales. He keeps coming foward throwing losts of punches and lots of BIG punches. Morrales is a great counterpuncher and Pacman leaves many openings to get countered. Pacman said if the gloves were Reyes he would have KO'ed Morrales, that is an excuse. Pacman would have a hard time KO'ing Morrales with a baseball bat in his hand. Morrales can take a punch like very few fighters ever could. He wobbles from perfect punches, but doesnt go down. Pacman has power, but so does Barrera and Morrales took his best 3 times.

The price on this fight will not move a whole lot. Morrales is the better fighter, but he lost his last fight. Pacman is the bigger puncher so he will always have people believing in him. Don't worry too much about finding the Perfect price, as long as you are able to get Morrales at anywhere from -105 to -130, its a good bet. Morrales might even be the dog by the time the fight starts to lets not get too anxious or worried about making the bet now.

The over looks good, but I think their could very well be an early stoppage due to cuts (accidental or inflicted). Pacman leads with his head a lot and Morrales is known to throw a few dirty shots during ('bow or 'butts). There will be blood and who knows how a doctor could see a cut. Morrales will probabally NOT knockout Pacman, so taking Morrales by DEC at 2-1 or 12-5 is nice bet.

Love to See the Boxing Chatter Back

Tuds




Yah, what he said. Very good analysis and great to have u back. I really think that Raheem is better than most think but that's not the point to be made here. I agree w/ 100% on the Morales pick and will retort more appropriately when time permits.

Any thoughts on the Feb fights? How about piece of chit Mosley? Now there's an over.

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/07/06 03:42 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Morales is back down to -110 on Pinny, I put another unit on it at -110.

Has been as high as -130 in recent days.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/13/06 04:16 PM
Morales down to -104 on Pinny. Pacquiano now favored.

Morales is down to -104 on Pinny.

Pacquiano has shifted to a -106 favorite.

I just locked three more units. That makes six total for me.

One at -109, one at -105, one at -110, and three at -104.
So that works out to six units at -106, which i'm really happy with.

I don't expect the line to drop much more, so if you're interested I'd recommend hitting it now.

Some recent press, given that we're much closer to the fight:

RingSideReport has a good writeup on the fight:
http://ringsidereport.com/Smith1122006.htm

A good blurb from another source:
Quote:

Now, here are more tangible points that should give Morales the overall pre-fight edge:

1) Morales has trained longer than Pacman.

2) Morales has sparred almost twice as long as Pacquiao, doing this around 7 p.m., exactly the same time of the actual fight.

3) Morales is coming in from a loss and will predictably come in superbly prepared.

So, will Pacquiao -- insisting to spar in the afternoon instead of simulating the evening fight schedule -- prove a disadvantage?

That's hard to answer. His body clock, so says Lito Mondejar, a trusted team member, has been used to the afternoon sparring.




And finally, an update on Pacquiano. I believe the press coming from the media workout refrenced herein is what's shifted the line:
http://15rounds.com/News/2006/01/pacquiao-011206.php


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/13/06 05:05 PM
And now its gone...

wow, that was much faster than expected.

Back up to Morales -109. Pacquiano now -101.

Didn't last long at all. Hopefully you were able to get on it at -104 if you were interested.


NLfool
(Pooh-Bah)
01/15/06 12:40 AM
Re: Any results?

and how do you find them. boxing has almost no live results

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/15/06 01:50 AM
Re: Any results?

Fight is next weekend, the 21st.

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/16/06 09:46 AM
Re: Any results?

Good Luck this weekend. I just wish I had tipped u guys off on Zab before his sorry ass lost to a weak fighter. Morales will kill Pacquiao and it aint even close. On a lighter note, has anyone heard what Don King will do to Zab's career after his post-fight comments blaming King for being a [censored] promoter? I'm suprised that Zab is still breathing.

Indy


the_main
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/16/06 07:49 PM
Re: Any results?

I'm not a huge sports bettor but I really like Morales. Odds are 2.0to1 @ Willhill.com if anyone is interested (im not sure how that translates into american odds)

vilemerchant
(addict)
01/16/06 08:26 PM
Re: Any results?

2.0 is even money so it's like +100. I think the reason the odds are a bit better is they also allow betting on a draw (21to1) whereas some other books will count a draw as a push.

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 01:20 PM
Re: And now its gone...

Back down to Morales -105 at Pinny.
Both sides are currently -105.

Fight is this weekend. Morales is not likely to be much lower than -105 in my opinion, so if you're interested, now's the time to hammer away. I've got six units on it, and probably not going to add any more.

Edit: I lied. Up to seven units invested now.


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 01:25 PM
Re: And now its gone...

This is sure money. I just can't wait to see what the odds are on the Vargas/Mosley over. Any lines out there yet?

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 06:38 PM
Re: And now its gone...

Morales is back down to -109 on Pinny. Paq is -101.

PInny has released their prop bets for this:

Will E. Morales win by DEC ?
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
08:00 PM 169 Yes +230

I dropped a single unit on Yes, as I really expect this fight to go to the cards baring an accidental stoppage. Neither of these two are going to get KO'd, unless Morales is way ahead in the 12th and Pacquiano goes nuts trying to salvage a win with a late KO from behind.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 06:43 PM
Re: And now its gone...

Quote:

I just can't wait to see what the odds are on the Vargas/Mosley over. Any lines out there yet?




Nothing that I can find, but I'll PM you when I do. I keep a pretty close eye on the boxing lines daily looking for fluctuations. I've managed a couple key arbitrages via boxing in the past few years because of it.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 06:48 PM
Re: And now its gone...

BetOnSports is hanging B-hop +130 for his March matchup with RJJ. As bad as Roy looked his last time out, I like B-hop here, even though this is so far out. I think Hopkins has been underappreciated as a boxer across his career.

partypokerer
(journeyman)
01/17/06 07:42 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

anyone else wondering why pinny seems to be the only book wtih morales as a small dog(-104 whereas the other books ive seen put him at -130 with pac even). Aren't they supposed to usually have the sharpest lines?

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/17/06 10:02 PM
Re: And now its gone...

Hopkins and RJJ are both shameless aren't they? Really, who wants to see these two fish push each other around?

Indy


MowrMowr
(addict)
01/17/06 10:37 PM
Re: And now its gone...

Faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaade.

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/18/06 12:56 AM
And its back down

Yeah its terrible, Indy. I'll still watch it though. I'm a sucker.

FWIW, Morales is back down to -104 on Pinny with Pacquiano at -106. If you missed it at -105 earlier now is the time to grab.

This is some pretty crazy fluctuation, but I really can't see it dropping past -104 baring some major news on either fighter. If this were a trading market you could make some major short term cash on these swings...

Morales by Decision has dropped to +209 from where I grabbed it at +230.


freewheeler
(addict)
01/18/06 01:39 PM
Re: And its back down

Morales by decision now +247...

Amazingly, the 5 possibilities - Pac dec (309), Pac ko etc (395), Mor dec (247), Mor ko etc (370), & draw (1630) are priced up at a theoetical hold of .52%. That Pinnacle is a good book... Worries me that they seem almost to be taking a view on this bout, inviting Morales money...


freewheeler
(addict)
01/18/06 01:42 PM
Re: And its back down

lol - I just made max bet on Morales by decision and price auto-adjusted to 235. Still, theoretical hold of 1.54% is damn good.

Tuds75
(addict)
01/18/06 02:25 PM
RJJ/HOPKINS Not Happening

Just thought I would let all of you know that RJJ and Bernard Hopkins is OFF.

RJJ got fired by HBO as a comentator and that has lead to hard feelings. Also seems like there is more negative press about this fight then positive. HBO doens't want it know and this is not the type of fight Showtime will pick aftre going towards better and younger fighters. Hopkins will realize there are better fights then a prolonged rematch with an serverly washed-up RJJ. Even boxrec.com took the fight off.

Mosely/Vargas: Mosely by dec. The early lines are going to be close to even, jump on Mosely quickly because that number will change fast. The fight is going to go 12, but everyone knows that and the odds should show it. Take Mosely early. He has looked better in his last few fights. Not the same Sugar Shane from 5-6 years ago, but improving from fight to fight while Vargas has looked average in his last 2 fights. Plus he has 3 fights in 4 years, talk about ring rust. It's a battle of the bad backs and Vargas back is much worse then Mosely's.

Tuds


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/18/06 03:19 PM
Re: And its back down

Quote:

Worries me that they seem almost to be taking a view on this bout, inviting Morales money...


From what I read a lot of the unsophisticated boxing betting public loves Pacquiao here. The public loves a big power puncher. That's why I think the line keeps fluctuating so hard. the public money is pouring in on Pac-Man and Pinny keeps bouncing the line to attract sharp money on Morales.

At least that's what I keep telling myself.


freewheeler
(addict)
01/18/06 05:26 PM
Re: And its back down

Reasonable theory, cuz I really don't think Pinnacle are the type of book that takes a view. Hope you're right!

freewheeler
(addict)
01/18/06 05:35 PM
Re: And its back down

And another thing... If Pacman is the power guy, doesn't that make Morales & a decision highly correlated parlay? That 9/4 or whatever it is has got to be +EV...

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/18/06 07:24 PM
Re: And its back down

Quote:

And another thing... If Pacman is the power guy, doesn't that make Morales & a decision highly correlated parlay? That 9/4 or whatever it is has got to be +EV...



Most certainly, which is why we're advocating it. Only reason i'm on Morales heavy and with a nice juicer on Morales + Decision is that I don't know that Morales + Decision doesn't pay for a DQ and there's certainly a possibility of a DQ or stoppage due to a headbutt cut here, as if Pacquiao rushes Morales their heads could come together. I believe Morales -105 is a very good bet as is and don't want to risk losing the opportunity to make money if the fight gets stopped early.


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 11:59 AM
Re: RJJ/HOPKINS Not Happening

Quote:

Mosely/Vargas: Mosely by dec.




Tuds, I think that the best bet is the over if the odds are decent. This one will almost surely go the distance and the decision could be really close. I don't think I would make a str8 bet on either fighter unless the odds are +150 or better for that bet.

Oh, and thank god they called off the RJJ/B-HOP fight. That woulda sucked. I didn't like RJJ as a comentator either, much rather hear Larry Merchant and Manny S. do the talkin.

Indy


Tuds75
(addict)
01/19/06 12:22 PM
Re: RJJ/HOPKINS Not Happening

Found this on Sportsbook.com yesterday:

Shane Mosley -200
Fernando Vargas +160
*Line is about what I thought, just surprised it opened at this*

Over 10.5 (-280) *This already went up from -260 in 1 day*
Under 10.5 (+220)

Shane will win this fight. I hope his odds come down. I can't trust Vargas after seeing his last few fights and Shane has been improving (more boxing less looking for the KO).

The best bet that night is going to be on the undercard. Calvin Brock vs. Zuri Lawerance. The OVER should be GOLD, the rounds should # be low and the price should be nicebut that line won't come out for a couple of weeks.

Tuds


freewheeler
(addict)
01/19/06 02:09 PM
Re: And its back down

All the way down to Morales -101... Thing that bothers me is that I always thought Pinnacle took more bets from "sharps" than anywhere else. If the line adjustments are meant to balance their book, I just can't figure where all the Pacquiao $$ is coming from... Cuz while they've been lowering price on Morales, they've also been raising the maximum wager...

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 04:19 PM
Re: And its back down

Yeah its sitting steady at -101 Morales, -109 Pac-man.

I'm still standing by the last analysis I posted on the line movements.

The max wager line being increased almost certainly tells me they're trying to attract more sharp action to balance the public opinion. Everywhere I've seen a public opinion poll, Pac-man is at least a 53-47 favorite over Morales and some places almost 60-40. So the Philippino money keeps dropping on Pac, and Pinny keeps lowering Morales' juice and upping the limit to encourage action there...

The pre-fight press conference was yesterday, and I've been reading all the press, and I'm still convinced we're on the right side. Nothing I'm seeing in the press conference or the surrounding stories is making me reconsider, and if anything I'm more strongly convinced that Morales is going to be ready for Pac

I'm evaluating what other moves I'm going to make. I've got seven units riding at roughly -104.5 and a one unit juicer on Morales by decision for +230.


Indy, if you didn't see it, Pinny has Mosley/Vargas up:

Sat 2/25 Shane Mosley vs Fernando Vargas
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
301 Shane Mosley -183
302 Fernando Vargas +173

Total Rounds (Mosley vs Vargas)
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
303 Over 11.5 rounds -255
304 Under 11.5 rounds +235

Not nearly as favoriable an Over line as I'd hoped but better than what SB has.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 04:39 PM
some more news blurbs / opinions *DELETED*

Post deleted by Performify

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 04:47 PM
Re: some more news blurbs / opinions

Quote:

The Marquez fight can be viewed as a microcosm of Pac-Man's career. That is, his unearthly power is enough to stop most opponents, but those select few who figure out a way to deal with it can be successful against the Philippine sensation. Marquez, 44-2-1, 33 KO's, was dropped three times by Pacquiao in the opening round, but the savvy veteran kept his composure, gradually figured out the southpaw and won the majority of the remaining 11 rounds to earn the draw. Once "Dinamita" had Pac-Man's left hand timed, he went to work as a counterpuncher and kept Pacquiao at bay.

That fight sums up Pac-Man very well: a one-dimensional fighter with shocking power in his straight left, but no plan B in his repertoire. While Marquez adjusted after the initial bombardment, Pacquiao remained fixed on his singular strategy. His one-dimensional style has proven less destructive as the level of competition rises, and his three biggest fights to date have yielded mixed results. A decisive TKO victory over living-legend Barrera in late 2003 seemed to indicate that Pac-Man the Destroyer was preordained to conquer his entire weight class in a manner not seen since Mike Tyson stampeded through the heavyweight division in the late-1980s. The Marquez fight ended that fantasy, and then came the loss to Morales, which confirmed that Pacquiao is human after all. Morales proved his mortality against Raheem, the only fighter besides Barrera to defeat "El Terrible."




Quote:

Morales simply knows how to make adjustments that Pacquiao can’t and I think that will help lead him to victory. Morales can not only brawl but he can also box just enough to establish superiority in this match-up.

Their first fight was a very tough fight that I felt Morales clearly won. Some people claim that the cut over Pacquiao’s right eye limited his chances over the second half of the fight but I disagree. He was simply outfought by a guy who could match him in size and power and who also wasn’t afraid of him.




there's talk going around that Morales may be working hard to cut weight. Morales will have to pay Pacquiao $250k per pound that he's over 130 so it could be expensive for El Terrible if he's over weight. we should know all that friday afternoon at weigh-in.

however, that being said about weight:

Quote:

The whole issue of weight and size points to the reality that on fight night Morales is likely to come into the ring as a junior welterweight giving him an advantage which he is expected to exploit in terms of punching power. Simply put Pacquiao’s blows may not have the same telling effect as they would have on a natural super featherweight. Beyond that when Morales throws a punch it would carry the full weight of around 142 –144 pounds and not 130. That could make a difference. However, the lightning speed of Pacquiao and the ferocity of his punches which come in flurries is bound to more than offset whatever additional power Morales may have when they engage each other in the expected furious exchanges.

- http://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=2861





Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 05:02 PM
Wow shifted again, massively

Wow shifted again, massively this time. a ten point fluctuation between updates:

-111 Morales, +101 Pacquiao

I'd just decided to go with another two units at -101 and the line jumped. Bah.

I'll keep watching it closely and if it dips again I'll post again.


freewheeler
(addict)
01/19/06 05:17 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Now THAT's a bit more encouraging... I can't believe that just 1 max bet would trigger that big a movement tho... I wonder if Pinny's mgt pays much attention to WHO is making the bets... Nice to see the Morales by decision down to 216, too. I really got a steal at 247. I think that was actually a mistake. As good a value as they generally offer, I can't believe they would price up a .52% book on purpose...

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 05:25 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Quote:

Nice to see the Morales by decision down to 216, too. I really got a steal at 247. I think that was actually a mistake. As good a value as they generally offer, I can't believe they would price up a .52% book on purpose...




I'm inclined to agree. It sat around Morales by DEC +230 for quite a while, which I think was a little closer, but i'm not suprised to see it continue to fall. I think its so strongly correlated that at 2:1 or better its still a decent bet.


ThaHero
(Pooh-Bah)
01/19/06 07:13 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Im curious to know what everyone thinks this line should be at? What percentage of the time do we think Morales wins? I remember everyone agreeing on the Hatton-Kostya fight, and a lot of us lost, except for Partygirluk.

I also worry about rematches as well, but I don't think Don King is promoting this one. But you know boxin loves trilogies.


TheJackal
(old hand)
01/19/06 08:12 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Yep Morales wins again, and by a wider margin. Morales looked lethargic and unfit fighting Raheem at 135, hopefully moving down in weight doesn't affect him. One thing we cant compare are Pac and Raheem, because Raheem is a crafty boxer and Pac is a puncher/swarmer. Morales will have his way with Pac again, and the gloves are bad excuses. Morales took Pacs best bombs in the 1st fight (anyone remember the left Pac landed on Morales while he was in the southpaw stance in the 12th round?) That is probably the biggest bomb I've seen Pac land on a boxer, and Morales took it fine. Morales is too big, too skilled, and has too much heart and determination to lose. I predict a Morales UD or possibly a late TKO.

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 08:53 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

ThaHero,

I'd take Morales at -200 myself. Manny can't connect so this is a huge lock.

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/19/06 10:13 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Quote:

I'll keep watching it closely and if it dips again I'll post again.




jumped to $5000 max, and dropped to Morales -103.

I moved another three units, i'm now on Morales for ten units at a dollar-cost average of exactly -105. Still have the one unit juicer of Morales + Decision @ +230 as well.
I'm pretty happy with that as a position and for the record I do not anticipate moving any more units, and as such will likely not be following this line so closely.

My prediction with the way this line has been fluctuating, the sharp money is moving in on Morales now that the max has been raised and the juice lowered again, and the line will rebound back to -110 or so as the book evens out here shortly.


Artdogg
(rehabilitated)
01/20/06 03:28 AM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

You guys got my on it i put a G down. Just a healthy bet so I can enjoy the fight. Hope you guys are right!

ThaHero
(Pooh-Bah)
01/20/06 05:10 AM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

If they're wrong I'll have to quit poker!

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 09:22 AM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

ThaHero,

The results of this fight could prove us wrong, but its unlikely this time. Truth is man, in that Ricky Hatton fight none of us really knew how tough Hatton was. We didnt have enough data on him because he was an unknown with few fights that we had seen. This is a very different situation here. These two have fought before and most of us have been following Pacquiao for some time. After he knocked up Barrera a couple yrs ago, the world thought he was gold and started laying big bucks on him. Since then, we have seen how weak he is as a boxer and how hard of a time he has connecting his punches. He is tough though, and I cannot see him getting knocked out anytime soon. He just doesn't have the skills that Morales has as a boxer and racking up the points to beat Morales in this fight is a huge mountain for him to climb.

GL, I've got much $$ on this one,

Indy


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 09:31 AM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Hey, here's a piece from an article that sums up Pacquaio's problems:

"But Pacquiao is terribly predictable, especially as the fight wears on. He is the proverbial 1-2 puncher – firing right jabs, sometimes two in succession, and then virtually always coming right down the middle with the straight left hand.

While that is an effective strategy against most, it leaves Pacquiao somewhat at a loss against fighters who keep him on the outside with movement and a jackhammer jab. Morales, who enjoys a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage, did just that to the Filipino superstar in the middle rounds of their 12-round war last March. "

Morales will win this, do you see why?

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 11:20 AM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Quote:

Morales will win this, do you see why?




And its not even close.

117-110 Morales in the decision, you heard it here first.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 02:30 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Morales is now +104 on Pinny. Max wager $10k.
Pacquiao is -117.

If you'd earlier placed on Pac and want to shift to Morales, should be able to profitably aribtrage this now pretty easily assuming you picked up Manny when he was -101 or even at positive odds.

I added another 2.5 units (to win) to give me a total of 12.5 units (to win) plus another (to win) 2.3 units on Morales + Decision. And am evaluating how much more of the bankroll i can tie up pending the rest of the games this weekend. Either way wanted to post before it shifted.

the boxing sites are releasing their predictions. All pretty heavily weighted towards Morales:

http://ringsidereport.com/Wilbur1202006.htm
and
http://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=2872


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 02:36 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

You are a wise man Performity. I just wish I was a little closer to KC so I could come watch the fight w/ u.

Indy


ThaHero
(Pooh-Bah)
01/20/06 02:52 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Great links Perfomify, and thanks for the extra analysis Indy.

I think the main reason I'm worried is because I'm thinking about using this match to get me out of a downswing. That's probably a sign that it isn't a good idea. Anyway, I'm a boxing fan and know a bit about it, and agree with your analysis. Wish I could get those lines at Bodog, but they'll probably have it at -110 or 120 when they finally do post it. Last I remember, Pinnacle's fees are enormous.


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 02:57 PM
Re: Wow shifted again, massively

Pinnacle charges 5% (instead of the usual 8%) for Neteller instaDebit but regualr Neteller deposit (if you've actually got the cash in your Neteller account already) is free. They offset that with a 10% deposit bonus with only one rollover (bet it, win and you get the cash right away) so in all you're essentially getting a 5% signup bonus which isn't so bad. Not the best bonus but overrides that instadebit fee.

Pinny gives you one free Neteller withdrawl a month as long as its more than $500. They do charge $25 flat fee for any other withdrawls (more than 1/month or less than $500).

They're a great book overall.


yoolykeme
(newbie)
01/20/06 03:17 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

as much as i would like to agree with you all, I'm Filipino, and I can't bet against the guy...

oh well...


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 03:24 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:


as much as i would like to agree with you all, I'm Filipino, and I can't bet against the guy...

oh well...




LOL. So funny. I understand your pain, and I think lots of filipinos will bet on Pacquaio. This is where the value is in this fight.

Indy


yoolykeme
(newbie)
01/20/06 03:30 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

thats why it's tough...i can sit here and talk value with you guys all day...

in fact, im going to vegas tonight...word has it that lots of politicians from the philippines are all over there...

should be fun

Quote:

Quote:


as much as i would like to agree with you all, I'm Filipino, and I can't bet against the guy...

oh well...




LOL. So funny. I understand your pain, and I think lots of filipinos will bet on Pacquaio. This is where the value is in this fight.

Indy




Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 03:32 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

If you must bet on the filipino, just don't put too much $$ on it. I'm telling you man, manny is going to lose this one. Much love to the Philippines though, I've often thought of retiring there and leaving my worries behind. Plus, I kind of take a liking to the filipinas.

Indy


yoolykeme
(newbie)
01/20/06 03:37 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

If you must bet on the filipino, just don't put too much $$ on it. I'm telling you man, manny is going to lose this one. Much love to the Philippines though, I've often thought of retiring there and leaving my worries behind. Plus, I kind of take a liking to the filipinas.

Indy





i hear ya....I'm not gonna bet on it....I'll just be cheering against you guys

I got some offer for a free video poker tournament at the Rio, so I said why not, even though I dont know how to play VP. But some 10-20 NLHE at Bellagio is always fun.

Retiring in the PI, with American money is all good. You're set for life. Too bad I only date white girls....lol


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 03:56 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

Too bad I only date white girls




If this is true, you are missing out big time. I guess the grass is always greener on the other side:) I love video poker myself and its easy to learn. Its all luck anyway but it sure is fun to play it over a cold one after a hard day at the tables.

GL,

Indy


Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 05:07 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

FWIW, if someone forced me to bet on Pacquiao, I'd go Pac-man by TKO/KO/DQ at +364.

I think the only way Pacquiao wins this is if he can somehow close the distance, get a couple of those straight left hands through, and put Morales down.

I think that's a much better play than being on the wrong side if it does go the full twelve rounds.


FortFun
(addict)
01/20/06 06:11 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Morales is back to -105 on Pinnacle. I sure hope you guys are right about this. Is someone getting this on PPV at home that would be able to give us updates as the fight progresses? Or is there a website that will give updates?

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 06:25 PM
re: updates

I can post updates here during the fight from my powerbook.

Will be a fun exercise, I'll score the fight in progress.

"Performify's unofficial card shows Morales up 30-27 as we wrap up the third round."


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/20/06 08:51 PM
Re: re: updates

Performity, that would be cool man. I will follow if you do

Indy


reo
(old hand)
01/21/06 02:56 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I jumped on Erik Morales at -105 @ Sportsbook.com. I'll be watching the fight.

ThaHero
(Pooh-Bah)
01/21/06 06:40 AM
hmmm

So what do you guys say about people that mention Morales' number of fights or that hes now "done"?

Army Eye
(old hand)
01/21/06 07:52 PM
Re: hmmm

Morales is now +110 at Betcris

freewheeler
(addict)
01/21/06 08:32 PM
Re: hmmm

And +115 at sportsbook.com (at same time that Pacquaio is -115 at Pinnacle). Limits now 25k at Pinny's and Morales +105. Sure looks like lots of $$ getting bet on this fight, and more on Pacquaio than Morales. Hope our thoeries are correct about where this $$ is coming from... I would have thought that sharps would have moved line in other direction by now, if it really is such a sharp play...

Can it be that there is info we don't know about relating to Morales' fitness/readiness for this fight???


FortFun
(addict)
01/21/06 08:42 PM
Re: hmmm

Quote:

And +115 at sportsbook.com (at same time that Pacquaio is -115 at Pinnacle). Limits now 25k at Pinny's and Morales +105. Sure looks like lots of $$ getting bet on this fight, and more on Pacquaio than Morales. Hope our thoeries are correct about where this $$ is coming from... I would have thought that sharps would have moved line in other direction by now, if it really is such a sharp play...

Can it be that there is info we don't know about relating to Morales' fitness/readiness for this fight???




We don't need your negativity right before gametime.

Just kidding... I haven't read anything and it seems like alot of people agree with Morales winning this fight.

ESPN: Barrera, Raheem see another Morales victory


LAtoLV
(journeyman)
01/21/06 09:17 PM
Re: hmmm

WSEX
Outcome Rounds Money Line
MANNY PACQUIAO PICK -130
ERIK MORALES PICK EVEN


FortFun
(addict)
01/22/06 12:23 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

That's what I get for betting on a "LOCK"

reo
(old hand)
01/22/06 12:29 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Well . . . the [censored] didn't want to fight tonight. He said he wanted a vacation. Oh well. Only a unit.

fyodor
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/22/06 12:36 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

I laid the entire sportsbetting roll on Morales to win str8 up. So if this one doesn't hit, you guys won't be the only ones missing out. I am very very very confident that this one is coming in good. So confident that if I miss I will never post again in this forum.

Indy




Is this the end of Indy?


reo
(old hand)
01/22/06 12:48 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Afraid so.

PartyGirlUK
(Confirmed Bot, 100%)
01/22/06 01:10 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I have never seen anyone ever pick boxing as poorly as Indiana. If you bet against the picks he has made on 2p2 you would have made a fortune. Comes across to me as a degenerate gambler......

two0crew
(member)
01/22/06 01:51 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

pinny made a lot off twoplus and indy tonight

heynad
(stranger)
01/22/06 02:24 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Poor guy, how many times can he go all in and lose? I've seen him make that same statement at least 3 times. Think he'll be back this time?

maybe he's actually working for pinny.


TwoNiner
(addict)
01/22/06 02:36 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Yeah, I think it's less of a lesson on bad boxing picks saying a guy is a lock who is on a one fight losing streak than a lesson on terrible bankroll management. This is boxing... Morales could have kicked Manny's ass for 12 rounds and there is still a chance they would have given a decision to make a 3rd fight. I actually lowered my bet and ate some juice since the line was going one way while ESPN analysts etc.. were going the other. My pops was on the right side though Great fight for Manny, hopefully not too many people lost serious cash on the forum.

kyro
(Nose Pwner)
01/22/06 02:56 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

Yeah, I think it's less of a lesson on bad boxing picks saying a guy is a lock who is on a one fight losing streak than a lesson on terrible bankroll management. This is boxing... Morales could have kicked Manny's ass for 12 rounds and there is still a chance they would have given a decision to make a 3rd fight. I actually lowered my bet and ate some juice since the line was going one way while ESPN analysts etc.. were going the other. My pops was on the right side though Great fight for Manny, hopefully not too many people lost serious cash on the forum.




Anybody who loses "serious cash" based solely on the advice of a poster deserves to lose it as a lesson. I went with Indy's pick, but for $10. I don't regret it one bit, and it certainly didn't affect my money situation.


MowrMowr
(addict)
01/22/06 02:57 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

I have never seen anyone ever pick boxing as poorly as Indiana. If you bet against the picks he has made on 2p2 you would have made a fortune. Comes across to me as a degenerate gambler......




Anyone who took my "faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaade" advice from earlier is a wise man. You can make serious bank betting the opposite of what he says.


plus_man
(member)
01/22/06 04:21 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Don't get me wrong on this. I think this Indiana dude is a complete joker but a lot of "experts" were wrong on this one.

Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/22/06 04:49 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

My intentions were only to help you guys make $. I dont work for anybody. Sorry about the "results" but yes you have seen the last of me in the sports betting forum.

Indy


stephan
(*)
01/22/06 02:08 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

Poor guy, how many times can he go all in and lose? I've seen him make that same statement at least 3 times. Think he'll be back this time?

maybe he's actually working for pinny.




Heh, where was everyone BEFORE the fight. I read all the posts and thought Indiana knew what he was talking about.


NLfool
(Pooh-Bah)
01/22/06 04:40 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I agree, first of all calling something a "lock" is lame, but no one speaks up and says something until the result is in. It's easy being a monday quaterback. That being said I had a real bad feeling with the line moving like it was. Pinnacle knows it's stuff

Performify
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/22/06 05:06 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

A whole lot of people thought this was going to head to Morales. Check my previous post in this thread, where I posted two links to prefight analysis and it was pretty much 4-1 opinions for Morales.

And in the first six rounds, Morales was pretty clearly winning. He just didn't have the conditioning, Pacquiao got through his defenses and beat him soundly.

Yeah, this wasn't a lock. Nothing in sports betting is a lock. but a lot of experts really believed that Morales would have the tools to win this fight in the rematch. In the first six rounds he did, but then Pacquiao's speed and power combined with Morales' age and conditioning took over.

Sorry to lose you Indy, if you are going away. Best of luck in the future.


fyodor
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/22/06 07:36 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

I had Morales too. Thankfully I won't bet any signifacant amount of money on boxing because I am always terrified it will go to the judges.

RaiNz
(enthusiast)
01/22/06 10:26 PM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Morales made a pussy excuse for why he got knocked out. Show some class and give some respect. It was a good fight. I am glad Pac knocked him out, and it didnt go to the judges.

Tuds75
(addict)
01/23/06 12:23 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

Thankfully I won't bet any signifacant amount of money on boxing because I am always terrified it will go to the judges.




That is why you focus on betting over/unders. This way the corrupt/blind/bias judges don't control the outcome and your possible return.


mj555
(journeyman)
01/23/06 12:28 AM
Re: Imma nice guy, so here's a free boxing pick

Quote:

Quote:

Thankfully I won't bet any signifacant amount of money on boxing because I am always terrified it will go to the judges.




That is why you focus on cock fighting, where they box till they drop.




FYP


Tuds75
(addict)
01/23/06 12:44 AM
ONE FINAL THING ABOUT MORRALES/PACMAN

I found a similarity between Morrales/Pacman and Ruiz/Valuez from a month or so ago. Both fights opened with the favorite and dog at close odds. In both cases the favorite was the person who you or the general boxing/betting community would think would be favorite. Morrales because he won the previous fight and Ruiz because we was the champ and had fought and beat better competition. Then as both fights neared the odds completly swung in the opposite direction of the opening odds. Ruiz went from a -120 to +140 and Morrales went from -125 to +115. In both cases this seemed to good to be true. I jumped on Ruiz at the last moment thinking this was easy money (no such thing) and low and behold the Ruiz lost the fight. Then on saturday before the fight, as I was watching the the odds on Morrales rise, it hit me that this seems very familar to Ruiz's situation. So I decided to not lay any action on the fight and enjoy it from a boxing fan's standpoint instead of a betting stand point (I tend to enjoy the Fights themselves more that way).

Point of the Story: If the line starts to swing in an odd direction their is a reason for it. We shouldn't just think things are too good to be true and lay a few more units on the our man/bet. Also Indy (though since you promised to leave the board you will probably not read this), but after you bet Baldomir to beat Judah a few weeks ago in what looked like a sure thing, to call Morrales/Pacman a sure thing was very wrong.


Lets start betting Over/Under because that is where the money is.

Tuds


Indiana
(Carpal \'Tunnel)
01/23/06 09:12 AM
Re: ONE FINAL THING ABOUT MORRALES/PACMAN

Tuds,

Poker is so much more profitable than betting sports for me. Me thinks I'll take a break from sports. Back to the tables!

Indy


Tuds75
(addict)
01/23/06 12:49 PM
Re: ONE FINAL THING ABOUT MORRALES/PACMAN

Hey Man,
"Make Money Money Money, Make Money Money Money"

Since your are making money playing poker and sports betting just is just too hard to consitantly be a winner in, I think you might be making a smart decision.

I still respect your opinion on boxing and if your not going to post I'll shoot ya some personal messages to find out your thoughts on upcoming fights.

Later Man,

Tuds


ThaHero
(Pooh-Bah)
01/23/06 03:26 PM
Re: ONE FINAL THING ABOUT MORRALES/PACMAN

I think I'll be taking some time off as well. I've lost so much of my bankroll on sports it's not even funny, and it's now holding me back from getting to, and staying at, higher limits. Tuds I wish you could've posted that Ruiz/Valuez info sooner, would have saved me money.

Tuds75
(addict)
01/23/06 08:19 PM
Re: ONE FINAL THING ABOUT MORRALES/PACMAN

I only noticed the Ruiz/Valuez Morrales/PacMan similarity an hour or so before the fight after the line had kept moving further and further away from Morrales. At that point I think most people have already bet on the fight and their decisions would not have been swayed on the outcome.


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