thanks alot for commenting. Interesting perspective, since it opens a new Q (re: cbetting the J T x board). Quickly tho:
Hands 1 and 3 are similar on the turn. We are getting immediate odds of ~3:1 on 4:1 or 5:1 shots, with another 3 or 4 times the amount of the bet we face remaining in the bettor's stack, with us in position. These are incredibly easy calls, and I think any other play is wrong in most real-life situations. We need to get a bet of 1-2 times the turn bet called when we win, on average, to break even. This will happen easily, in my experience. Often times, the bettor will put the money in for us, but either way, signs point to decent hands for the Villains in both cases (probable Ace+ in hand 1, probable medium overpair or set in hand 3), and guys don't get away from those for 1/2 pot bets in SSNL (or anywhere, for the most part). So, call the turn bet in hands 1 and 3, and it's not close.
full agreement, calls are +EV and its that simple. people are folding too easily there.
Hand 2 is the only place where I disagree with Bobbo's play up to the main decision. I think that in most cases, c-betting the JTx flop there is wrong. It would be very clearly wrong if we were in position, thus having the option to take a free card, but OOP I believe it's still a mistake. You will RARELY get this pot with a bet of any size less than or equal to pot; if I had to put a number on it vs. the opponent described, I'd say maybe 20% if you bet 2/3 pot or more. Much of the time that you don't win, you will get raised, by a real hand protecting its equity on a draw-heavy board, or by one of the countless semi-bluffs available. Whether you're tight or loose, they will put you on AK, and you WILL get messed with on this flop. So, obviously in my estimation, this bet loses money as a straight steal.
Interesting, I would never consider check folding this flop. Mainly because even against a better hand we figure to have ~40% equity or so, so a cbet in isolation is often a freeroll. I think if we had 56 (did that pair? I forget what I labeled the x) where we have complete air, a c/f may be more correct given we generally have ~10% equity TOPS + the overlay that opponent will make life difficult for us.
Also, I think alot of people will put you on AK (they put me on AK no matter what falls and despite the fact I'm opening 30% of my hands, and AK is just 1% out of 30, but thats another point!) but the dif is alot of those hands simply call rather then raise. Tx, Jx, even underpairs that have you pegged for AK tend to call rather then raise. In fact, if I were raised on this flop, I'd label them for JT, set (I think 44? Was the 4 the x?), KQ, 89, then air. I'd put an underpair in the air category, as well as weak gutshots (like 78) and then finally 1pair that would rather showdown then raise the flop in a raised pot pf. If I think villain is incredibly aggro on the flop, I'd probably 3bet AQ, too, unless they were aggro AND calling station esque, ala they raise J5o here and never fold it. In that case vs an aggro player I'm calling bc I think my draw has enough equity, and I'll get paid off by a pair since they cant fold. Vs a norm dude tho that isnt particularly aggressive I'd muck to a raise. (unless it was a minraise etc) I'm really digressing, and I think im getting too tolstoy esque with regard to war and peace. sorry. heh.
This is somewhat of a "secret" of mine, but I never call one street and fold the next with a made hand. I make a decision on the turn and carry through on the river, although every now and then I make a bet size read and make a weird laydown.
I used to do this, too, and it's a serious leak. Not only in the sense that it's exploitable, which you addressed, but more that it fails to exploit some tendencies that are very common in opponents, especially in less-aggro games like SSNL. Specifically, there are so many players who'll bet once with either a bluff or a marginal made hand, and then give up on the pot if called. Calling to see what they do after that is the best way to deal with them. If you have a good but not great made hand, you can comfortably fold to the 2nd barrel from many, many 200NL players.
You're completely right here, and I'm not fully correct. Morseo, I should say, barring a read (such as they will check it down on a bluff after called once) I'll either call down or i'll save the tough decision and muck the turn (and possibly fold the best hand there, rather then the best hand on the river where I cost myself the turn bet)
It's less important to do this OOP, and maybe that's what you meant, but either way, I think this should be a substantial part of your arsenal. Bobbo, that may sound funny coming from me, since you know I'm not a fan of floating, but I've definitely come around to that tactic, as well, and try to use it in moderation. Anyway, that's all I got. Nice thread.
Thanks cero, nice comments too.