(Just a big [censored] softie at heart)
10/30/06 12:08 PM
Re: Basic Theory: -Expected Value-


...nit picking at semantics...

What semantics? I'm not even concerned about the fact that each of you puts in 4BB preflop, so when you make your play on the flop you're not looking at 100BB but 96BB (that WOULD be nit-picky).

In your hypothetical, you know that Vill...

Oh, wait, I see now. You're talking about the equity race once all the money is in, which is the same as EV since all the money is in. But you're using that to support a discussion about making +EV "plays", while in your hypothetical you've already made your play. So, it would be better to say that your read of Vill is that he'd only make this sort of play with KK/QQ/JJ/TT (with AA or a set he'd play the flop differently) so you "know" you're a 92:8 favorite (actually 91:9, since his range has more cards that'll make his set) making the EV of a call:

EV = (.91)(96) + (.09)(-96) = 78.72


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