| yeesh |
| (newbie) |
| 05/17/07 07:17 PM |
Re: **** PSA - Losing as a favourite ****
|
Quote:
What you need to realise is that when you hold an equity edge of 70%, you are a favourite, BUT if you were to play the situation 100 times, you are guaranteed to lose 30 times
Nice post. I would only add that this is only true if these 100 hands took place in a theoretical vacuum. It's possible to be a 70% equity favorite and lose all 100 hands, and it's possible to win all 100 hands. But if you were to play an infinite number of hands, then yes, you are guaranteed to win 70% and lose 30%.
Running bad or running good often means when our results are not corresponding with our equity over an infinite number of hands.