Reading through these posts, it's amazing to me how people
can be so unappreciative of experts who have worked for
years to develop their skills. If you've heard of Johnny
Morton, the NFL wide receiver, who tried to fight in the
UFL after training in martial arts for 2 months... He
got knocked out in under 2 minutes.
Imagine if the prop bet was basketball; a chess grandmaster
is the chess equivalent of an NBA player ( or maybe even
all-star ) at the worst. The average "good" chess player,
( ie less than 1700 rating ) would be analogous to a
weekend gym rat who loves basketball.
Would anyone in their right mind bet on the gym rat no
matter HOW good the odds ? ( 10 point handicap to 20,
NBA player can only shoot from 3 point land... etc... )
Probably not... unless the NBA player had to play in
showshoes, or blind-folded, or something utterly
Or imagine the gym rat vs. an NFL player, one-on-one,
a la those old American Gladiator events. How often
did the average Joe beat the Gladiator ???
My point is: non-experts tend to completely trivialize
the skills of experts in their field to their own
detriment; especially in games of skill or athletic
I think that you are missing the point a little. I have played chess while drunk before and beaten a (sober) near GM with a queen handicap. I am sure that I could train myself to win in this situation (with a rook handicap) in less than a week. There is a rating cutoff point in which all players with ratings > X can beat a GM of Curtains' level with > 90% probability. X is almost certainly a lot lower than you think.
A small perturbation in 'game fairness' can only be measured in the context of the game.
For example: I play Garry Kasparov right now with a handicap of bishop, knight, rook on one side of the board: I crush him.
I play Tiger Woods with 4 clubs in his bag that he gets to choose: he absolutely crushes me and I am about a 12 handicap.
I play TLK in HU LHE and only get top 33% hands: I should be a winner.
I play PA in HU LO8 and only get top 33% hands: I probably am a loser.