(Carpal \'Tunnel)
09/05/06 11:33 PM
**OFFICIAL** Mansion free Steelers bet promo thread

0) The Mansion promo has closed.

The promotion is no longer available. Best of luck to those who did get in on the promotion

1) All posts relating to the Mansion promotional offer (free $1000 bet) should go in this thread.

Anything else will be locked and/or deleted.

2) Yes, the promotion is real.

Seriously. Its real. Not a scam.

3) The promotion is detailed on Mansion's site.

Hit and click the "home button". You'll see the promo link right near the top. Look for this image:

4) Critical summary of the promotion is as follows:

Bet $1100 on the Steelers pointspread (currently PK for pick meaning no points laid or given) through the Mansion Sports Book. If you win, you win (+$1000). If you lose, Mansion refunds your money in 1-3 days. So after the game (and this 1-3 day period for the refund), depending on the outcome, you'll either have $2100 in your account (win) or $1100 (lose).

5) Mansion will cover your Neteller instacash fees if you go through their site for the instacash.

But not if you instacash to Neteller and then pay Mansion. Do the instacash through Mansion. Their live chat support is very helpful if you need assistance.

6) If you want to hedge to guarantee yourself a payday, you are likely costing yourself EV.

However that doesn't mean its wrong, or right. But if you do want to do so, the best option is to go to your favorite low-juice Sports Book besides Mansion - I'd reccommend Pinnacle - and bet the opposite side of the line. Right now, the best option I've seen is betting Miami moneyline on Pinny for -101.

To hedge in this way: So after signing up at Mansion and making your free $1100 bet, you would roll to Pinnacle and bet $502.49 on the Dolphins moneyline at -101. This would result in a balanced hedge of a profit of $497.51 regardless of the outcome of the game.

Of course, if you wanted to hedge to one side you could do so: for example if you thought Pitt was more likely to win you could hedge $404 at Pinnacle which would result in a profit of $400 if Miami won and a profit of $596 if Pitt won, etc.

If you'd like to calculate arbitrage lines for other options besides this one, I recommend where you can click their "Freeplay Calculator" and do your own arb calcs.

7) the previous thread on this has a ton of good info

But has gotten really, really large, so I started this one. If you want to find the previous thread, you can find it here: Another Mansion Free Bet.

8) Yes, the promotion is still real.

There is no "catch". This is a promotion Mansion is doing to entice new accounts to open, and judging from the amount of buzz here and elsewhere on the net, its working well. if you think about it in these terms, most sites offer 10% signup bonuses. If Mansion were to offload all of their own action (by balancing their book by placing a very large series of wagers on Miami) they would lose approximately 10% per player (the juice they'd pay on offloading the action). I'm not saying Mansion is going to do this, but they could. So in that regard, this really isn't some far-fetched crazy promotion: its just a very clever way for Mansion to create free publicity, and its a great way to make a nice little payday (or take a shot at a free larger payday)

9) Should I hedge?

Hedging is definately -EV here if you assume the line is correctly set. Only you can answer if hedging is right for you or not. Personally speaking, if you're looking for my own opinion, I hedged.

10) Is it still available? When does it close?

Nobody here knows for sure. If it's still up on the Mansion site, you're good. If not, you can check with their support, but probably not. No one knows when Mansion will pull this in between now and game time, so if you want to do it, get in there. Odds are it probably closes Thursday but who knows.

Anything that I missed, please feel free to chime in.

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