SS2 question

[wax42]

I'm reading Super System 2, on p 265 Jen Harman talks about raising the turn (in position) to get a free showdown. The assumption is that the opponent has bet into you on the turn, and will bet into you again on the river if you just call the turn, but will check the river if you raise the turn. When discussing raising on the turn, the book says "What I like most about this play is that it usually costs you no extra bets, but you can win an extra bet if you improve. Let's say your opponent calls your raise. Unless you catch an ace or a 7 you'll just check it down and hope it's good. When you improve, you get the opportunity to value bet the river." In the example, an ace or 7 would give you two pair/trips.

I don't see how raising the turn here allows you to get an "extra bet if you improve". If you just call the turn, you will put in 1 bet on the turn, then 1 on the river, but you can raise if you improve. So you put in a total of 2 bets when you don't improve and 3 when you do improve. If you raise the turn, you put in 2 bets on the turn, then 1 on the river if you improve. For a total of 2 bets when you don't improve, and 3 bets when you do improve. This is the same. Am I missing something?

[correia]

[ QUOTE ]
If you just call the turn, you will put in 1 bet on the turn, then 1 on the river, but you can raise if you improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming the original bettor will fire again on the river. If she doesn't and your hand improves, you will earn 2 bets. If you raise the turn you're still getting 2 bets in and if you improve you can earn 3.

[aargh57]

One other benefit of this play is that it will sometimes win the pot for you right there. This won't happen often but it doesn't necessarily need to to make this play correct. Say there are 10 bets in the pot when it's your turn to act and you estimate that you have 5 outs. Clearly you should call with 5 outs but if you raise you also have the added possibility that your opponent will fold. You should also look at your opponent when making this play. If he's very aggressive and will often just reraise or bet out again on the river it's not as profitable. However, if he's timid (or will often bet/fold (if he's a bluffer)) it's more valuable.

[wax42]

[ QUOTE ]
You're assuming the original bettor will fire again on the river. If she doesn't and your hand improves, you will earn 2 bets. If you raise the turn you're still getting 2 bets in and if you improve you can earn 3.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we are supposed to assume the bettor will fire again on the river. Otherwise, the statement "it usually costs you no extra bets" doesn't make sense - if the bettor isn't going to bet again on the river, raising the turn does cost you an extra bet.

[wax42]

[ QUOTE ]
One other benefit of this play is that it will sometimes win the pot for you right there. This won't happen often but it doesn't necessarily need to to make this play correct. Say there are 10 bets in the pot when it's your turn to act and you estimate that you have 5 outs. Clearly you should call with 5 outs but if you raise you also have the added possibility that your opponent will fold. You should also look at your opponent when making this play. If he's very aggressive and will often just reraise or bet out again on the river it's not as profitable. However, if he's timid (or will often bet/fold (if he's a bluffer)) it's more valuable.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I agree with this reason for the play - this is mentioned in the book actually. I just don't understand the other reason given for the play (the stuff about gaining an extra bet).

[ssmallz]

This type of play is usually more applicable when you have top pair plus a flush draw and you're not sure if tp is good. Once the flush card hits, your opponent may not bet into you on the river so you raise the turn and only bet the river if you hit your flush.