Is Blackjack Dead?

[Al Mirpuri]

Have continuous shuffle machines killed blackjack? Ther is no card counting with them. Are CSM's the norm in US casinos? What about UK casinos? I just finished reading Arnold Snyder's Blackbelt In Blackjack and feel kind of sad that the card counter has gone the way of the Dodo. Tell me it ain't so, joe.

[kibble420]

Do you think the casinos like being beaten?

[playersare]

I think you're grossly overestimating the market share of CSM's, at least in the US. if you look at the most recent issue of CBJN, probably 25% or even less use them (and they are still mixed in with shoe tables in the same property), and some large gaming jurisdictions like AC and Reno/Tahoe don't use ANY CSM's.

the main thing that is hurting the counters in LV are the rule changes, especially the 6:5 payouts on single deck and the more widespread adoption of hitting on soft 17. there are still mathematically beatable 2 and 6 deck games both on and off the strip, just not nearly as good as in their heyday, that's all.

nowadays there's probably easier money to be made in poker, and online bonus whoring IMO.

[Metal_Rat]

Some casinos were getting rid of the continuous shuffle machines.
The average player didn't like them because they liked the break in play while the dealer shuffled.

More significantly, continuous shuffle increased the number of hands played per hour and as a result the bad players lost their money at a faster rate and wouldn't return.

This hurt the game as these are the people that casinos want to keep coming back. Apparently, if bad players lose their money slowly, they'll come back and play (lose) again.

The blackjack rules each casino employs normally have a built-in house advantage. so even if one plays flawless basic strategy you'll still lose money in the long-run.

So, it really isn't that big a deal for the casinos to remove the continuous shuffle machines.

[Qbawler311]

I heard casinos prefer to make there BJ game beatable beacuse they make much more money off counters who are bad at counting then they lose to counters who are good?

I will try to find the article I read on this...

[Peter666]

The good games are few and far between. It is just easier to make money online now.

Arnold Snyder has wrote a new book about exploiting online casinos.

[Metal_Rat]

I agree.

I think a good counter can win in the long run but it will be a tough grind. I don't know if they can win large sums of money in today's environment.

One problem is that the shuffle point is normally so far up the deck that you don't get to play many hands when the true count (using hi-lo) is +3 or greater (where you significantly increase your bet size).
Also, some Basic Strategy plays should change if the true count becomes very + or -.

Significatly varying your bet size and deviating away from Basic Strategy are things that can get you noticed (and barred) by the casino. If you're not allowed to apply the above strategies you can't overcome the built-in house advantage.

Here are some stats to help determine the house edge.
It was created by Julian Braun and was detailed in the documentation that came with my Masque Black Jack analysis software.
It approximatates the advantage/disadvantage of various black jack rules.

RULE VARIATION ............ PLAYER'S GAIN/LOSS IN PERCENT
One Deck ........................... +0.50
Two Decks ........................... +0.16
Five Decks ........................... -0.03
Six Decks ........................... -0.05

Dealer Hits Soft 17 .................. -0.20
Double Down on all after splitting ... +0.14
Forbid Double Down on all soft hands . -0.10
Forbid Double Down on Hard 9 ......... -0.10
Forbid Double Down on Hard 10 ........ -0.50
Forbid Double Down on Hard 11 ........ -0.80
Allow Double Down on 3 or more cards . +0.20
Draw any number of cards to split aces +0.10
Re-split all pairs except aces ....... +0.10
Re-split all pairs including aces .... +0.20
AJ of spades always wins double ...... +0.04
Blackjack always wins but is paid even -2.06
Late Surrender ....................... +0.06
Early Surrender ...................... +0.62

This can help a counter determine if a casino's black jack game is beatable. For non-counters, it can give you an idea of the chance you can win in the short-term.

EDIT:
Thought i'd add the edge gained if you count cards...

(Summarized from Stanford Wong's "Professional Blackjack")
With typical rules (i'm not sure what these are...) the house advantage dissapears when the count is +1.

For each additional count per deck your advantage is +0.56%.

The High-Low system has a standard deviation of 0.22, so your effective value plus or minus one SD is between 0.34% and 0.78%.
The Halves count system has a SD of 0.06.

[bodhibabe]

I have found the Caribbean to still be decent. I don't think there is the same incentive there to deal with counting when so many tourists are donking it up at the slots and Let It Ride etc. ie the profits are so ludicrous that noone cares to bother is my working hypothesis.

Also Malaysia - Genting Highlands (maybe all Asia?) was awesome as large bet variations are BOG STANDARD but that was quite some time ago.

[CORed]

[ QUOTE ]
The average player didn't like them because they liked the break in play while the dealer shuffled.

[/ QUOTE ]

More important, from the casino's viewpoint, a lot of players will drop some coins in a slot machine during the break in play while the dealer is shuffling.