NCAAB Unranked vs Ranked 01/10

[NoChance]

1 game for Tuesday:

YTD: 4-3

(17) Wisconsin
Minnesota pk

Even though the line is now a pick at most places, this is still a play as the opening line was Minnesota -1.5. I REALLY like this game. The reason for the movement is because of Wisconsin's trouncing of Michigan State on national TV Sunday. Vegas still opened the line with Minnesota as the favorite which should tell you something. Again, Vegas knows/knew they will/would get Wisconsin action here.

The general rule is to bet early when against teams ranked 15 and below unless there is a special circumstance. Well, Wisconsin's last game qualifies as a special circumstance. The public should be all over Wisconsin (as we can see already) which should give us plenty of value here. Had the line still been -1.5 when I made this post I would have recommended to wait and watch the line. The 1.5 movement makes this a judgment call now. I went ahead and placed my wager at a pick. At some point it will level off and move slightly the other way. Who knows when that will be?

Be smart!

[slogger]

[ QUOTE ]
1 game for Tuesday:

YTD: 4-3

(17) Wisconsin
Minnesota pk



[/ QUOTE ]

Minnesota +1.5 (-101) right now, Pinny

[OperationVegas]

I like Minnesota here as well, The line movement does not concern me at all, going to wait to see how much it moves before making my play.

[Easy E]

How far does a home fav have to move (to dog) before this is dropped?

Or is it only the opening as a favorite that the system is concerned about?

[NoChance]

The opening line is all I am concerned about. Extra movement is just extra value. It's actually a very simple system. I am thinking about grabbing a little more if it hits +2. It was there for a while at Canbet but it came back down to +1.5 right away.

This one looks ugly when looking at each team's last game. Again, that explains the line movement which I expected. The uglier the better. Good luck.

[shamu]

I love Min in this one too. Gonna wait a bit on the line though. Thanks for the heads up NoChance.

[Allin72]

Love this system and will be on it again tonight. I see Minny at +2 (-115) on Bodog now ( I know bodog sucks blah blah), should i grab it now with that or wait till game time? thanks

[slogger]

+1.5 (-103) on Pinny is probably a better bet.

[LLXC]

+2.5 -115 at Bodog now I believe.

[slogger]

+2 (-103) Pinny

[droopy0021]

Minn +3, -115 on BoDog now...maybe worth having account on BoDog for now

[FYYFF]

Im on it, +3.5 -110 at SB

[NoChance]

Anyone besides me think they could have scored more than 6 points alone if they played for the Gophers?

[droopy0021]

So, correct me if I'm wrong. But in order to have a chance to win NCAA game a team needs to score more than 1 FG in 15 minutes.

Minn offense = brutal so far. Wisc not much better, but 25 points is huge vs. MN tonite.

[NoChance]

You are correct

[CCx]

i hate being "that guy", but i had a pretty large bet on the first half under (62.5), and a much smaller bet on minny +2 because i love this system, so i'm hoping they can shoot better than 1% in the 2nd half /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[FYYFF]

Outstanding display of Bball in the 1st half

[roundmound]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate being "that guy", but i had a pretty large bet on the first half under (62.5), and a much smaller bet on minny +2 because i love this system, so i'm hoping they can shoot better than 1% in the 2nd half /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I got a nice bet on under 137 for the game. Glad to see you easily covered that 1H bet.

[NoChance]

A 25-17 halftime score is about as good as we can ask for with a half like that. They need to use their speed in the second half because they sure as heck are not getting second chance baskets. Force the ball into the big guys hands up the court and keep trying to steal it from them. Wisconsin looks huge but seems to lack ball handling. (not the Minnesota isn't turning it over themselves every other time down the court)

[PropPlayer]

I'm good for 7 or 8 pts if I played for them.

[LLXC]

Still, we have life! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[CCx]

wow minny just went up 2...WOOHOO! i'm hating the book tho for not crediting my win fast enough to get the 2nd half over bet (66.5) /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[NoChance]

One hell of a gutsy effort to come back and actually lead by 2. They are sprinting all over the place. Hope they don't get tired. Need to keep it up.

[FYYFF]

MASSIVES TOOLS!

edited to add, thansk for making that last second meaningless shot and Im sorry I called you all tools /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CCx]

ahhhh i didnt wait long enough to get 2.5 - boooo lol ohwell i'll take the refund /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[roundmound]

haha awsome, so glad I got this at +3

[20Five]

what a shot at the buzzer.. love being on the right side of things like that happening /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[LLXC]

Whoever had +2.5 or better was a winner...wish I had waited, haha. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[NoChance]

Well I had:

1 unit at a pick
0.5 unit at +2.5
0.5 unit at +3

I lost juice. I assume many here won. What should I call this on the record for this trend? According to the final line, it's a win but I only essentially pushed.

[droopy0021]

After an ugly shooting display (I watched only 25% of the game and saw Grier shoot 3 bricks that caught backboard only) some clown buries a 3 at the buzzer for backdoor cover.

I'm glad this is only for "recreational purposes only" and NOT for a living. At least I came out right on this one at +3.

[roundmound]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I had:

1 unit at a pick
0.5 unit at +2.5
0.5 unit at +3

I lost juice. I assume many here won. What should I call this on the record for this trend? According to the final line, it's a win but I only essentially pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call it a loss since the system is unranked teams that are favored at home right?

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm glad this is only for "recreational purposes only" and NOT for a living.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, I almost had a heart attack. After what seemed like no chance at all, they had so many opportunities to extend that lead to 5 or 6 and kept throwing up bricks.

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call it a loss since the system is unranked teams that are favored at home right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not neccessarily. In many cases like this one we tell people to wait for a good line. In other cases we jump on it early. The initial line tells us whether it's a play or not but at what line to grab it at.

[PropPlayer]

I call it a win =). Thanks for the Pick NoChance Great Job.
I deposited at BoDog just to get the +2.5. I thought it was a loss for sure, that buzzer shot was awesome!

[CCx]

You could note it as a push/tie since some got in early and lose, some got in this afternoon and pushed and some got in late and won. I wouldn't call it either a win or a loss in terms of tracking the system though...

[NoChance]

Exactly what I was thinking. There was people on every side of this. A push is probably the best way to describe it with such a wide range of line movement. Then a little note with *Results may vary /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Performify]

i would call it a no play - the system doesn't play lines that move to a dog, right? And this was clearly a move to the dog well in advance of when most people played it....

It was a dog when i looked at it, and I waved off...
just my $0.02

[droopy0021]

Dude, I almost had a heart attack. After what seemed like no chance at all, they had so many opportunities to extend that lead to 5 or 6 and kept throwing up bricks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I spent more time watching Fear Factor-Bates Motel w/ fiancee. It would've been harder to explain to her that watching end of the MN-WI game was scarier than eating a banana slug.

I did get to watch both /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[NhlNut]

Gotta love that empty net goal.
First time I've been on the "right" side of one of these in a long time.

1 unit at -1 +105
1 unit at +2.5 +102

[NoChance]

It's still a play. If it moves to a dog, all the better as seen tonight. You're thinking about the other thread.

[Performify]

damn. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'd call it a win then, it was WA at +3