Line Movements

[leonard9]

I know that movements on the over/under are generally assumed to come from sharp betting, but (with the extremely small sample size) from this week, it seems that there are many opportunities where the public will go under with a great defense playing (Chicago) or over with a great offense playing (Indy) no matter what the line is set at. I hoped / anticipated that this would happen, so I put down bets on Panthers/Bears u31 (+100) and Colts/Steelers o47 (-105). I was wondering if I just got lucky predicting the moves this time, or if its possible to do this fairly frequently and successfully?

[DougOzzzz]

There are people who make a ton of money predicting line moves. I'll give an example:

I was "tipped" that everyone loved Iowa in their bowl game against Florida. I took as much as I could of Iowa +120 on the money line.

About an hour before game time, I was able to take Florida +110, and guarantee about a $200 profit.

Unfortunately, it is usually not so simple. I could probably hit about 75% predicting line moves on my own, but you need to do better than that if you are aiming for a scalp or middle. The small percentage of times that you are stuck with a big bet on a bad line easily make up for the times that you are able to guarantee a small profit (or, have a very profitable middle).

There is really no simple rule here. There is money to be made, but it is not easy.