Basic Question: probability of hitting a set on flop

[Leo Bello]

I just would like to know which percentage of times when u have a pocket pair you will hit a set on flop?

If you can explain the math, I would be glad. sorry for the bassic question, but I made wrong math and I am not finding the number that I thought was supposed to be the chance.

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I just would like to know which percentage of times when u have a pocket pair you will hit a set on flop?

If you can explain the math, I would be glad. sorry for the bassic question, but I made wrong math and I am not finding the number that I thought was supposed to be the chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

set only: 2*48*44/2/C(50,3) =~ 10.8%

That is, 2 cards that can complete the set times 48*44/2 combinations of the other 2 cards that do not have a pair or make quads. C(50,3) = 50*49*48/3! = 19,600 total flops.

full house w/pair on board: 2*48*3/2/C(50,3) =~ 0.73%

quads: 1*48/C(50,3) =~ 0.24%

Total =~ 11.8% =~ 1 in 8.5 = 7.5-to-1

P(flopping a king) = 1 - P(not flopping a king) = 1 - (48/50 * 47/49 * 46/48) =~ 11.8% =~ 1 in 8.5 = 7.5-to-1.

[Buccaneer]

The probability that you will flop a set is aprox 11%. In otherwords if you play a PP to the flop 10,000 times then you can expect to hit a set 0% - 100% of the time but sometimes you will make your set 1,100 times. Remember there is a possibility of hitting 0% and we call these people loosers. The ones that hit a set 8000 times or 80% we call them internet wonder boys and professionial gamblers. The stats will always even out but someones personal stats probably will not recover.

Concentrate on the 8900 rather than the 1100.