how often do i need to be good?

[galahad_187]

here's somethingi 've never fully understood. your up against a laggy opponent with a good hand. the turn brings a great possibility your dead in the water, but you have a redraw. how often do i need to be good to call here?

hand taken from middle stakes forum - perfect example.

SB ($132.65)
BB ($140.60)
Hero ($235.90)
MP ($87.70)
CO ($137.40)
Button ($417.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K. SB posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises to $7, 4 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 9, K, J (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero raises to $22, BB calls $17.

Turn: ($59) Q (2 players)
bb pushes for 111

i know i have roughly 1.5:1 pot odds so i need to be good about 1 in 3, but i have a redraw to a boat which is about a 1 in 4. so, with my 1.5:1 pot odds and a 1 in 4 shot at improving i need to be good like 1 in 2? 1 in 2.5? how would i figure this out for future hands?

thanks,

galahad

[Wacken]

110 to win 170.

You need to win 40% for even money.
3 nines, 3 queens, 3 jacks and 1 king for a total of 10 outs to beat the straight. 22% of the time you will beat the straight. You need to win 18 out of the remaining 78% without improvement. 18/78 x 100% = 23%.

Call if you think there is 23% chance he is betting with less than your kings.
(Slightly more because there also is a chance he bets with another set and has a microscopic chance to make quads)

For a very rough and simple calculation you could also just say: needed 40%. Have 20%, need another 20% and add a few because it is actually 20/80 instead of 20/100.

[galahad_187]

i had to read it a few times but now i understand perfectally.

thanks a whole bunch =)