Who wants to be a millionaire

[acidca]

I was just watching that show, and the guy playing got to the final question, worth $2,180,000. If he got it wrong, he would take home $32,000, and he could choose to simply leave with $500,000.
Suppose you were in this situation (you, specifically, not someone with millions of dollars). You knew that one of the possible answers was definately wrong, but had no idea about the other choices. By guessing here, your expected takings are $719,400. That's 219,400 more than you'd take by just walking. Would you guess?
What if the final prize was 3 million, or 6 million? (losing 500k and 1.5 million expected value by walking, respectively)

[Kaeser]

I would think that unless your a millionaire already then the obvious answer is to walk with your 500K. Sure it might be +EV to take a stab at it, and if you were in this situation every day then you would. However this is pretty much a one time deal so I'd go with the guaranteed money.

[Scott_Baio]

This is a basic economics 101 question. The key factors are

1) Money has an inherently subjective vaule.

That is, $500 is worth more to someone who is broke and needs to pay their rent or face eviction, than it is to me. They should and probably would be willing to do a lot more things for that $500 than I would, as I should and probably would be willing to do more things for it than someone with millions. On the same note, 1 million dollars is worth more to me than half of what 2 million dollars is worth to me. That is because most of the life changing things I could do with 2 million dollars, I could also do with 1 million. Therefore the second million isn't as valuable as the first.

and

2) Money makes money.

This further pushes the subjective vaule of the first 500,000. You aren't just risking the ~$470,000 dollars by going for the 2mil, you are risking all of its future earning potential.

So, unless 500k is an amount that you would consider "petty cash" you are being foolish not going for the sure thing, even if you try to invoke the name of +EV

[Double Down]

I believe that such situations are the basis of the new NBC gameshow Deal or No Deal, which I think starts next week.

[stigmata]

I agree with Scott_Baio's analysis. It's kind of similar to TPFAP and the number of chips you have in a tournament - each chip added to your stack is worth less than the last one.

In this respect, after you reach a life changing sum of money, the money decreases in worth.

The way I would approach millionaire, is that I would be willing to gamble up to the life changing amount of money, but once there, would just take the money.

[iSTRONG]

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't just risking the ~$470,000 dollars by going for the 2mil, you are risking all of its future earning potential.


[/ QUOTE ]

2mil will earn you a lot as well...

[Marc H]

I was on 'Millionaire' in March 2000.



Whoops, this isn't the Brags area, is it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stigmata]

[ QUOTE ]
I was on 'Millionaire' in March 2000.



Whoops, this isn't the Brags area, is it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ooooh how exciting, tell us more....

[Marc H]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was on 'Millionaire' in March 2000.



Whoops, this isn't the Brags area, is it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ooooh how exciting, tell us more....

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're serious:
I got the fastest finger questions right (2 of them) ... but 3 seconds, then 3/4 of a second, too slowly to get into the Hot Seat.
No million for me.

[stigmata]

I was serious... damn! I was hoping for a story "I was on the million dollar question: I guessed. Wrong. Bang, 1 million into $50...."

Oh well, better luck on the poker tables huh /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[CieloAzor]

Ugh, I was watching one that made me sick a while back. A lady was assured of 64k and was looking at the 125k question. She used a 50/50 so she only had 2 answers to choose from. She was already guaranteed 32k, so she had a 50/50 shot at worst, to risk 32k for 61k. She walked with the 64k.

Not only is the original gamble she was offered well worth it, but there was the additional possibility that extending her game by one question, could lead to another question that she knows the answer to, then another, etc.

She was offered a great +EV opportunity with possible double-ups waiting in the wings, and she passed, just short of the "life-changing" money. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was on 'Millionaire' in March 2000.



Whoops, this isn't the Brags area, is it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

ooooh how exciting, tell us more....

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're serious:
I got the fastest finger questions right (2 of them) ... but 3 seconds, then 3/4 of a second, too slowly to get into the Hot Seat.
No million for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I was on it too. I made it into the chair but only won a grand. Eff me.

[Superfluous Man]

Is the syndicated version still in production? I don't know how long I have to wait before going on another game show (I lost [badly] to Ken Jennings on Jeopardy), but I could use some more gamblin' money.

Then again, considering that it's degenerated into a "who pores over People magazine and the Almanac the most" contest instead of asking about ostensibly academic facts, I would probably walk away with no more than $1000.

Edit: Oh, I guess it is; thanks google!

[Tony_P]

I was all set to go on when it was on its original run. I qualified and then my mom got hired by Disney Merchandising. No familiy members of employees could go on.

[LionelHutz00]

Even if I wasn't a millionaire, I'd take the shot at the +EV question..... But that's just me..... I love to gamboooool.

[Quicksilvre]

Was it ever anything other than a People magazine/Almanac contest anyway? I remember seeing the summer specials in 1999, and I don't remember it being that academic at any point.

[Toonces]

Interesting that you all would say that you would not risk $468K guaranteed for a 1 in 3 shot at about $2 million. After taxes, $500,000 would end up being about $350K. In my opinion, the money really doesn't lose value until I reach Critical Mass, i.e. the money I would need to retire comfortably. I figure that I have to get my net worth to about $2.5 million at some point. Why not do it all at once?

[hemstock]

Why not take the 500k and put it all on red?

[Bulbarainey]

although it may seem more +EV in the short term to take the guess for the 2million, if you weigh in the fact that the 500k can itself make money from investments, and the 0 cant, i think it outweighs the benefit of taking the gamble.

[RoundTower]

In fact 2 million can make 4 times as much as 500k invested the same way, so if you are a good investor it is even more important that you take the gamble.

[EvilSmurf]

I was on Australian Millionaire in April 2005, won A$32,000, which is around $25K US.