10-20 Stud8 Hand

[mscags]

After playing the PS $100 Stud8 tourney I was in the mood to play some more stud8. No reads on anyone bc this is one of my first hands.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter (http://j.1asphost.com/greenage))

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 6: xx xx K/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in

4th Street - (2.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif___checks___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls

5th Street - (3.00 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif___bets
Seat 5: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds

6th Street - (6.00 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif___checks___folds
Hero: A/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets___???
Seat 5: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif___raises

[Raul Wong]

Yikes, sure seems like a straight but I am not good enough to fold this hand. He knows you have at least Js so what could he be raising with other than the straight? It's an impossible fold for me to make though. Other than that everything seems fine to me.

[beta1607]

Why didn't you raise 3rd? Don't you want to play this hand against as few people as possible?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

raise 3rd street and call the raise on the 6th and fill up, duh.

[Jeffage]

I would always raise third here. As for 6th, that blows. I'd probably call, but I'm not sure that's correct.

Jeff

[mscags]

My usual play would be to raise third in this spot but I didn't here for a few reasons. There was already one limper in front of me and there were some decent low cards behind me. I wasn't real sure that raising would have accomplished what I wanted. The way the table had been playing, raises weren't doing a whole lot to clear out the field (yes this game was actually good for a change lol) Maybe I should be raising here for value though even if I don't clear the field since I have aces, but even though I have aces here, I still only have a one way high hand and that is the most important thing to remember. Yes Aces are better than Kings and Queens, but without a low kicker, Aces are still just a one way high hand.

I kind of wanted to just limp and see what developed on fourth street. If a lot of people caught good I was bailing pretty easily. I also wanted to be able to clear the field a bit easier if I felt the need too.

Definitely not a third street play I make all of the time, it just seemed right at the time. That doesn't mean it is or isn't correct though lol

Mike

[benlj21]

IF you had a photographic memory, you could have seen that 15 cards have already been exposed+6 in your hand=21. 31 cards in the deck, 4 outs. You are getting ever so slightly less than 7:1 to call, but you will almost certainly get called if you fill up, and you might get two bets (?) so I think, all in all, you should call. A very slim possibility is that villain is raising with a combined low draw, flush draw, and OESD. I'm not sure your impression of him, the chances of this may be nil.
As for raising 3rd, is it possible that the abundance of low cards out there makes it LESS likely that someone has 3 babies? I'm not confident on this at all, I'm actually pretty new to Stud8. If we assume that:
A.) they won't call you with anything but 3 cards to a 7
B.) seat 1 already has at least 3 cards to a 7
then the chances of one of the low guys having 2 non-pairing cards < 8 in the hole is...about 26%, depending on which card he has. There's about a 50% chance that two of the three low cards behind you or the bring-in is a real hand. I'll share the math if you want. I didn't do a weighted average, just counted the cards basically. Based on all this crunching, I'd say you will have to play against 3 low hands fairly often, which is obviously not fun with AA/J. So, I can't really fault you for calling here. LMK what you think if this analysis.

edit: oops, it's 9:1. easy call on 6th now.

PS...mscags, i heard you were from or living in oklahoma. any truth to that?

[Hobbs.]

so I'm new to stud and stud8, but this turn call seems obvious as getting 9:1 we have more than enough odds to call and fill up given that all of our A's and J's are live. Since we have odds what is the rationale for folding? Also, say we call the turn and don't fill up on the river do you call a bet with two pair?

[MichaelOar]

This is a tough one.

Personally, if I were seat 5 with 5678 on 4th st, I would raise 100% of the time to try and clear out the bricked lows and play the hand heads up with you.
So, it is definitely possible (probable?) that he doesn't have a made hand, and he is instead sitting on freakishly strong str8/flush and low draw. I think I'd just have to go to a showdown on this one . . .

Michael

[mscags]

I had no intention of folding this hand. My main concern was deciding to raise or not... Thoughts? FWIW I was fairly confident that this guy was trying to get it heads up with me bc I had played the hand so strangely and that he only had a draw, maybe and OESD and 4 low perhaps.

[mscags]

That analysis looks good to me, but im not sure about the thought of someone being less likely to have a premium hand. There might be a lot of low cards out which will make it tougher for them to complete their hand, but I think there is a good chance someone has a decent hand. I'm too lazy to do some math to try and back it up right now (prob not good since i am a math major lol) anyway, maybe Beer or someone else who is also good at this stuff wouldn't mind chiming in.

I'm from STL and go to school in Springfield. Sometimes I go to OK to play at some of the Indian Casinos.

Mike

[mscags]

Yes I plan on calling a bet here on the river.

[mscags]

I think this was an interesting hand but maybe I'm just over analyzing it or am biased based on results. For some reason when villian raised me on sixth street, I really thought that that he was just trying to isolate me for some reason. That is why I seriously considered reraising. I thought about the straight, but after I thought about it, I was pretty confident that he would have raised 4th street if he would have been open ended. Therefore at best I put him on either two small pair or a pair and some type of straight/low draw.

Villian showed this down 4d 5h 6d 8h Kd 9h 9s

I blanked the river and scooped the pot after the action went check check.

More thoughts welcomed.

Mike

[Alchemist]

Well I don't really understand his raise on 6th. The worst you could really have here is two pair or trips and even though the pot is small, I don't think he can realistically expect you to lay it down. Maybe the raise was to knock out the other low draw in order to promote his if he hit or the river (like you had suggested)?

[mscags]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I don't really understand his raise on 6th. The worst you could really have here is two pair or trips and even though the pot is small, I don't think he can realistically expect you to lay it down. Maybe the raise was to knock out the other low draw in order to promote his if he hit or the river (like you had suggested)?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is the only thing that I could conclude with his raise. The way he did made it seem like it was one of those hands where he was ready to fold it and then all of a sudden he saw me bet and decided to raise. It was really strange.

[benlj21]

Yeah, raising seems very very bad for him. I was wondering even before I saw his hand, because it looks like he has a low draw and seat 1 looks either high or busted for low. He isn't gaining equity by folding hands that are going the other way, so what gives? I guess he was afraid that his 8 wouldn't be good if he made it. But why raise? /images/graemlins/frown.gif