Should I move down the stakes?

[Nepthu]

I've almost lost 4 buyins in 2600 hands at .5/1 $100 max. Is it time to retreat back to .25/.5 $50 max? Or should I stick it out awhile longer yet? I think I have 15 buyins left in my bankroll.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
I've almost lost 4 buyins in 2600 hands at .5/1 $100 max. Is it time to retreat back to .25/.5 $50 max? Or should I stick it out awhile longer yet? I think I have 15 buyins left in my bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I am ever the conservative when it comes to maintaining a healthy bankroll, I'd say it's close to being time to step down. But, it really depends on whether your 15 buy-in roll still allows you the mental fortitude to play correctly. If you are still comfortable putting your stack in the middle when you have an edge, then you can probably afford to continue for another couple buy-ins. If you are feeling uncomfortable, then move down and get your confidence back.

2600 hands is nothing to worry about as you could certainly just be running bad. By the same token, you worked hard for your roll, so don't let variance take it from you.

[drocpdp4]

[ QUOTE ]
I've almost lost 4 buyins in 2600 hands at .5/1 $100 max. Is it time to retreat back to .25/.5 $50 max? Or should I stick it out awhile longer yet? I think I have 15 buyins left in my bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you lost your 4 buyins to the tune of KK vs. AA preflop or KK vs. runner-runner-runner-runner caught on the river or AA vs. 88 preflop all ins, then no, you shoudln't get discouraged, and stay at those limits.

If you lost them making mistakes, or "mis-reading" ppl, or calling people's all-ins based on this "mis-read" than yeah... you should move down.

[drocpdp4]

[ QUOTE ]
I've almost lost 4 buyins in 2600 hands at .5/1 $100 max. Is it time to retreat back to .25/.5 $50 max? Or should I stick it out awhile longer yet? I think I have 15 buyins left in my bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, 19 buyins is not really enough if you're worried.
I actually have 30 buy-ins for my level, and to be honest, i was opting for 50 buy-ins, but my friends told me that i would be safe enough with 30.

[jsnipes28]

dont be soft, 15 is plenty as long as you are comfortable with the amount of money you are betting and can withstand losing 2 buy-ins without freaking out.

[stu-unger]

i personally wouldnt be worried about 4 buy ins one bit. i would however be worried if i felt like i was being outplayed, or if my confidence was begining to falter. if u feel like this is the case, then step down and rebuild your roll and your confidence.

as for having a 20 buy in roll, that's standard. i keep a 30+ buy in roll, but have never had a >6 buy in downswing. if u are comfortable with your roll and the game, stick it out...

[Nepthu]

I see your point. Luck is a tough thing to gauge. There was at least a couple times where I lost an entire buyin. Once with KK vs. QQ in 3 handed. Once I had: AJ and my opponent had: 99 and the flop came: JJ9. But lately I have been losing a little at a time somewhat consistently. I just have no idea if my opponents are outplaying me or if I am getting unlucky.

[Nepthu]

Just a little update. I stuck around and I have lost 6 buyins now. I think I'm ready to play at .25/.5 for awhile. It's a little frustrating because I thought I was beating .25/.5 pretty good. And when I see how they play at .5/1 at party poker I can't believe that I'm not beating that one too.

I lost a full buyin when I hit top set then someone called along 2/3 pot bets flop and turn with the second pair. Then they hit runner runner for a straight on the river. I lost another full buyin when I had aces and someone hit runner runner for a flush. I wouldn't normally go that far with one pair but this person was very loose in calling bets. Both of them were.

I'm not sure if this is statistically significant to be down 6 buyins. Maybe it could be a very bad streak of luck, but possibly not too. Well I'll try to build my roll a little at the lower stakes before I try again.

[Mercman572]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if this is statistically significant to be down 6 buyins. Maybe it could be a very bad streak of luck, but possibly not too. Well I'll try to build my roll a little at the lower stakes before I try again.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hit your roll took i think it would be foolish to continue with only 14 buyins. Smart decision. As to 6 buyins, it's not statistically significant, but that doesn't mean that it isn't necessarily indicative of your play; it may or may not be.

[MTBlue]

Move down--when I notice myself losing a little at a time it generally means I'm playing badly. Big swings when you lose big pots are to be expected but generally I find when winning that I am winning lots of small pots keeping my bankroll increasing in between big scores. The few times this hasn't happened I've found myself to be playing as a significant loser.
Oh and if you think you are winning 14 buyins is fine, but plan on moving down if you hit 10.

[Scorch]

You know the theme song of the T.V. show "The Jeffersons?" Yeah, do the oppisite of that...

[cfb1739]

Depends on why u think you lost the buy ins. Did you play poorly, suffer bad beats, have really strong second best hands? If you think u can't beat the level because you don't have the skills, then move down. If u have 15 buy ins left, then dropping to 10 buyins at the current level should leave u 20 for the level below. Try it a little longer if u feel u are just running bad, but if u can't play at that level, then move down.

[jd2b2006]

Although it seems like you are running bad, it sounds like you are not mentally ready for $100NL if you are really discouraged and feel you took a hit to your bankroll. Sounds like you need a confidence boost back at $50NL such that when you go back to $100NL, losing a buy-in on a bad beat is not that big of a deal.

[rachelwxm]

I feel your pain. I think I am probably way on conservative side. How many hands do you play at this level? If you are sure you are a winning player at this level, you can try play it out. If you are recently moving up to this level, step down to kill the 50 fishes. I think 100s is alot harder than 50s.

[Nepthu]

I probably played close to 4000 hands at .5/1 and lost 6 buyins. But the thing is I made about 12+ buyins in the last 4000 hands at .25/.5. So maybe I am really confused there. You can always look at things in a way that it seemed like you got unlucky I think, so it's very difficult to tell if you were unlucky or lucky.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably played close to 4000 hands at .5/1 and lost 6 buyins. But the thing is I made about 12+ buyins in the last 4000 hands at .25/.5. So maybe I am really confused there. You can always look at things in a way that it seemed like you got unlucky I think, so it's very difficult to tell if you were unlucky or lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both sample size are small. I find it much easier to build bankroll at 50s btw. I evaluate my game using 20k sample to decide if I want to move up. It does not mean I won't take shot at higher levels, but I think 20k hands give me enough practice/confidence/bankroll to move up. Also everytime you move up be prepared to have 5-10k hands breakeven cause you need to make some correct adjustments. But I am on conservative side.

[J Chap]

Feeling like you need to roll with 50-ins is borderline absurd IMO.

unless you're 10-tabling.

BTW, where does the number of tables factor into all this? Do all of these estimates assume you're 1-tabling?

[Ness]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've almost lost 4 buyins in 2600 hands at .5/1 $100 max. Is it time to retreat back to .25/.5 $50 max? Or should I stick it out awhile longer yet? I think I have 15 buyins left in my bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, 19 buyins is not really enough if you're worried.
I actually have 30 buy-ins for my level, and to be honest, i was opting for 50 buy-ins, but my friends told me that i would be safe enough with 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I play with 35-40 buy ins in my BR for whatever level I am playing. IMO, in order to play to the fullest of your capabilities, the money has to be meaningless (at least when its on the table).

[Perk76]

When everyone is talking about certain number of buy-ins, are they talking about the minimum buyin for a level? or the max?

[Nepthu]

I have been talking about the maximum for the places I play - 100 big blinds for that level.

[Nepthu]

A little update:
I moved back down to .25/.5. The 15 buyins at .5/1 converted to 30 buyins for .25/.5. I played my way back up to 60 buyins at .25/.5. (maybe I stayed too long, but I had to get my confidence up for a few months there /images/graemlins/smile.gif). That converted to 30 buyins at .5/1. So I have been playing .5/1 for about a week. I have been playing a lot of heads up and shorthanded games, and some full 6 max games too. So far I am up about 4 1/2 buyins.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Feeling like you need to roll with 50-ins is borderline absurd IMO.

unless you're 10-tabling.

BTW, where does the number of tables factor into all this? Do all of these estimates assume you're 1-tabling?

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need more buy-ins just b/c you're multi-tabling,
other than the fact that you obviously need enough to buy in at each table. Playing 10K hands 10-tabling has no greater or lesser swings than playing 10K hands at 1 table, you are just playing those hands at a faster pace.

[Garon]

Hi Nepthu,

I'm late to the thread, but my opinion is if you have the smallest inkling of an idea that perhaps you should maybe possibly think about moving down, then you must move down! Even the smallest thought along those lines shows a confidence leak, which will lead to sub-optimal play. You start second-guessing yourself. I don't think it's ever wrong to move down when this happens. Should help build your bankroll back up too. Not saying this next part applies to you at all, but ego should be left at the door when playing poker, it can only lead to losses.

Congratulations on making your way back up again!

Garon