***official Carolina Panthers @ the Chicago Bears -3 Thread.

[lastsamurai]

I really dont see any major trends on this game but just out of boredom I am going to take the Panthers +3 on this game...

[lastchance]

See:
Bye.
NYG lost their entire LB corps.
Grossman.
Home-field.
Bye.

[TWolf2006]

My opinion is definately not qualified.

But GO Carolina. Superbowl bound.

[Artdogg]

If Carolina protects the ball they win, period. Fox is a hell of a coach and does a lot better against teams the 2nd time after a loss. I got Carolina, a lil more analysis later.

[BobJoeJim]

The Bears defense is great, but Carolina's isn't much worse, and the Panthers have a much stronger offense. Chicago NFC Northed their way into a bye, but they aren't the better team. Carolina's offense has now already seen the Bear's D, and will be able to make enough adjustments that they won't be held to 3 again.

The three teams who played Chicago this year all did better in their second try. Detroit went from a 38-6 loss, to a 19-13 loss. Green Bay went from a 19-7 loss to a 24-17 loss. Minnesota went from a 28-3 loss to a 34-10 win.

[Gramps]

Carolina D vs. Chicago D ~ draw. Statistically against the run Carolina is a little better.

Delhomme vs. Grossman = definite edge to Delhomme (especially in a big playoff game), Bears fans may be jizzing over Grossman in comparison to Orton, but he hasn't really proven himself yet. Good luck making plays against that defense in the playoffs, even at home. Better hope you get an early lead and can run, run, run. Look what happened to Eli Manning at home when he started forcing it...

Running game = edge to Chicago season-wise statistically, but Carolina has been ripping it up on the ground lately (yes, Chicago's linebackers are about 50 times better than NY's, etc. but still...)

Special teams - Around a draw (statistically at least).

Experience in playoffs/big games = Carolina edge.

At Soldier field, Chicago could get a couple big plays/win the turnover battle and win + cover, but at +3, Carolina's looking pretty solid - especially since they were #3 in turnover margin during the regular season at +16, so losing the turnover battle is not something that happens to them very often (though they did lose it when they lost at Chicago in the regular season - they also got down early and abandoned the run at a time when they were struggling more in the running game). They've now won 3 in a row on the Road in the playoffs (Super Bowl neutral site), and have ripped apart their opposition two weeks in a row. I'd guess it'll be +2.5 or +2 by kickoff, and even then it's a tempting bet.

[ChipWrecked]

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina's offense has now already seen the Bear's D, and will be able to make enough adjustments that they won't be held to 3 again.



[/ QUOTE ]

Will they be able to make enough adjustments to not give up 3 fumbles, 2 picks, and EIGHT sacks again?

That's a lot of adjusting.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Carolina's offense has now already seen the Bear's D, and will be able to make enough adjustments that they won't be held to 3 again.



[/ QUOTE ]

Will they be able to make enough adjustments to not give up 3 fumbles, 2 picks, and EIGHT sacks again?

That's a lot of adjusting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd look at it the opposite way. They were SO bad that game, that they pretty much have to do better this time. If they only give up 2 fumbles, 1 pick, and get sacked 5 times that could easily be enough to get them the extra ten points that they lost by last time.

[ChipWrecked]

Good point, but the Bears offense has improved considerably since that game as well.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I really dont see any major trends on this game. . .

[/ QUOTE ]
-- Bye teams have dominated their first playoff game.
-- Warm weather and/or dome teams playing cold away games do suffer.

Both of these trends are real, and I just don't see how Carolina is significantly better than Chicago regardless.

Chicago's defense was the best in the league by a healthy margin -- it got them to 9-4 with the worst starting QB in the league. Grossman is mediocre, but still represents a big upgrade for what was already a strong team.

[PropPlayer]

With the exception of a few streaky teams (Ex: NYG, TAMP, MINN) Neither has really beat a quality team this year.
Chicago is 7-1 at home and has won its last 6 home games. Carolina is a good road team though going 6-2 during the regular season and beating the Giants this week at home.
This is going to be a close match up. Because its a close match up and the home team in the playoffs is only giving one field goal I got to like Chicago in this one. If the line gets better than -3 I will be all over this. Right now I have 2.25 units on Chicago -3 -101. Depending on what the line does will determine my final play. If it stays close to what it is now I will sit on the bet.

[Artdogg]

The Bears O wont be as improved as you guys think just cause of Grossman, he will be asked to manage the game just like Orton would have. Now he might convert more of those 3rd downs, but in the grand scheme of things if they ask him to do too much against a D like Carolina it will hurt them a lot more then help.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
The three teams who played Chicago this year all did better in their second try. Detroit went from a 38-6 loss, to a 19-13 loss. Green Bay went from a 19-7 loss to a 24-17 loss. Minnesota went from a 28-3 loss to a 34-10 win.

[/ QUOTE ]

All 3 of those rematches were on the road and the Bears ran for the bus in Minnesota.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
The three teams who played Chicago this year all did better in their second try. Detroit went from a 38-6 ROAD loss, to a 19-13 HOME loss. Green Bay went from a 19-7 ROAD loss to a 24-17 HOME loss. Minnesota went from a 28-3 ROAD loss to a 34-10 HOME win in which the Bears rested their starters because they had already locked up a first round bye due to, in part, their having beaten the [censored] out of Carolina earlier in the year.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[beavens]

i'm a biased Bears fan, but sitting back i still think we win this one.

-best D in the NFL
-home field advantage and bye
-psyched up offense with Grossman back (yes, i know he isn't the best, but now the offense has a LOT more confidence with him under center)
-one of the better rushing games in the NFL (even with Grossman back they won't stray too much from their run-heavy scheme)

*edited for being a retard*

[Kevroc]

Carolina isnt a Florida team but Grossman is a Florida QB

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina isnt a Florida team but Grossman is a Florida QB

[/ QUOTE ]

doh.. had jacksonville on the mind

[Performify]

Technically speaking, Tampa Bay had the NFL's best defense.
Chicago is #2 overall, Carolina #3 overall.

Car. #22 O #19 R #17 P #3 D #4 R #9 P
Chi. #29 O #8 R #31 P #2 D #11 R #5 P
T.B. #23 O #14 R #25 P #*1 D #6 R #6 P

Carolina also has a better defense, statistically speaking, against the rush: #4 vs #11 for the Bears. Chicago is better against the pass, #5 vs #9 for the Panthers.

Overall I'd say the defenses really are a wash, except for the fact that Chicago has had a very one dimensional offense (heavy rush) and Carolina has a great rush defense.

Carolina has a balanced offensive attack: they can attack on the ground and in the air. Chicago is going to have to respect both and can't over-pursue on defense.

Its going to be a lot easier for Carolina to stop the Chicago offense, or at least force it to become completely one dimensional. They walk up a safety and they shouldn't have much trouble stopping the Chicago running game.

The key to this game is going to hinge on Grossman. Can he keep the offense multi-dimensional by completing a lot of big passes, thus forcing Carolina to respect the pass and not walk up a safety all the time?

I've got Carolina +10 teased with the over right now and feel that's strongly +EV.

My gut instinct so far is that Carolina wins this one outright, but I'd be very pleased to be wrong (as a lifelong bears fan and former chitown resident). This isn't a formal pick yet as I've still got a lot of research to do, but my early instinct is that I'd rather be taking the points here.

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Technically speaking, Tampa Bay had the NFL's best defense.
Chicago is #2 overall, Carolina #3 overall.

[/ QUOTE ]

How much stock do you actually put into gross yardage numbers? I don't see how they're worth even looking at, since they're horribly misleading. For instance, you list Chicago as the #5 pass defense, but the teams in front of them are the Packers, Jets, Saints, and Browns.

DVOA has Chicago as the best defense by a lot. If you want a (meaningful) conventional statistic to compare the two defenses, look at points allowed per game: Chicago is first, easily, allowing just 12.6 ppg. Carolina is 5th, allowing 16.2. Also, Chicago's number is artificially inflated by their Week 17 game, in which they sat half their defense for the whole game, and the other half for three quarters.

[VarlosZ]

I am [censored] flabbergasted that the line is moving towards Carolina -- Bears are currently -3 (+108) on Pinnacle.

This is my favorite play of the whole year. I've already got about 8 units down. If the line moves to 2.5 I don't know what I'll do.

[Performify]

valid points, and which is why i caveated what I posted with "technically speaking" in that gross yardage numbers are what the NFL uses to technically name the "best defense"/etc.

I do believe that the Carolina and Chicago defenses are very close in ability with a slight but certain edge to Chicago. PPG is a very important measure, but as you point out any purely statistical measure isn't exactly accurate: a garbage touchdown at the end of the game when the first team isn't on the field can have a massive swing in these statistics when your PPG is as low as it is here...

Another telling statistic, I think: Chicago is +6 on Turnovers, Carolina is +16. Thats a pretty meaningful difference and could very much be the difference in the game.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
I am [censored] flabbergasted that the line is moving towards Carolina -- Bears are currently -3 (+108) on Pinnacle.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually expected / predicted (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=4385214&page=0&vc=1) the move towards Carolina.

I'm not 100% sure yet that its going to be enough to move it off +3 but at +108 its got to be close.

[Caldarooni]

Any thoughts on Grossman making his first playoff start after the performances of the other "rookie" playoff QBs this last weekend?

[Action Scott]

According to covers.com, about 62% of the $ is on Carolina, one book has already moved to -2.5. I will be all over it at -2.5, but I'm a little biased.

[Sluss]

One of the keys last time was the absolute throttling of the Panthers on both sides of the line. The Bears defensive line just destroyed the Panthers o-line with 8 sacks just from just the front four and shut down Davis and Foster. I think they blitzed four times the whole game.

The Bears offensive line also crushed the Panthers front four. Blowing them off of the line and not allowing any pressure the whole game. The Panthers d-line had fewer tackles than the Bears d-line had sacks.

If the line play is the same the Bears will dominate. I just don't know if it is possible to overpower a power team like that twice in a year. Though, judging from some of the Panthers rushing stats this year it may just be a bad match-up for the Panthers.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
One of the keys last time was the absolute throttling of the Panthers on both sides of the line. The Bears defensive line just destroyed the Panthers o-line with 8 sacks just from just the front four and shut down Davis and Foster. I think they blitzed four times the whole game.

The Bears offensive line also crushed the Panthers front four. Blowing them off of the line and not allowing any pressure the whole game. The Panthers d-line had fewer tackles than the Bears d-line had sacks.

If the line play is the same the Bears will dominate. I just don't know if it is possible to overpower a power team like that twice in a year. Though, judging from some of the Panthers rushing stats this year it may just be a bad match-up for the Panthers.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't watch the game, but (from looking at the stats) realize that Carolina got down 10 early (thanks to two early picks by Delhomme, pretty uncharacteristic) and abandonded the running game, only attempting 15 carries all game (hence they got one dimensional, and Chicago could rear back and go after Delhomme).

Carolina also lost the turnover battle by 3 - this from a team that was 3rd in the NFL at +16 (vs. +6 for Chicago).

I highly doubt either of the above will repeat itself (Carolina abandoning the run, Carolina losing the turnover battle by a big margin - it'll be tough for Chicago to win the turnover battle period - that's what ususally decides these closely matched playoff games).

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
didn't watch the game, but (from looking at the stats) realize that Carolina got down 10 early (thanks to two early picks by Delhomme, pretty uncharacteristic) and abandonded the running game, only attempting 15 carries all game (hence they got one dimensional, and Chicago could rear back and go after Delhomme).

Carolina also lost the turnover battle by 3 - this from a team that was 3rd in the NFL at +16 (vs. +6 for Chicago).

I highly doubt either of the above will repeat itself (Carolina abandoning the run, Carolina losing the turnover battle by a big margin - it'll be tough for Chicago to win the turnover battle period - that's what ususally decides these closely matched playoff games).

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a little to lazy to look it up right now, but I think the Panthers only had one rush in the whole first half that went for more than little or no gain and they were trying to run. The Bears where really blowing them off of the line. Even the early picks were more a result of pressure rather than bad throws or luck. IIRC there were also a few fumbles that the Bears failed to pick up that would have caused even more trouble.

Remember one thing about the Bears TO differential they had that game against the Bengals where Orton turned the ball over 6 times. That will screw with your +/-.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
According to covers.com, about 62% of the $ is on Carolina, one book has already moved to -2.5. I will be all over it at -2.5, but I'm a little biased.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just getting into sportsbetting. Anyway, I went to covers and don't see this information. Can someone point me in the right direction? Will this information help me with timing leads and buybacks (good chance I'm not using proper terminology here)? Thanks a bunch.

[Action Scott]

use the link below, I click on the 'matchup' link next to each game to do some research. It has been quite helpful.
http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_lines.aspx

[beavens]

do you guys think that the line will drop to -2.5?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
use the link below, I click on the 'matchup' link next to each game to do some research. It has been quite helpful.
http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_lines.aspx

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for that. I actually saw those numbers earlier and didn't think they were related to public betting. I thought it was the consensus picks of experts of something. Thanks again.

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
If the line moves to 2.5

[/ QUOTE ]
...people will start calling this a "trap" game. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the line moves to 2.5

[/ QUOTE ]
...people will start calling this a "trap" game. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

can you please explain this concept to a sportsbetting newb?

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
do you guys think that the line will drop to -2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

BetCris has -2.5 -110

Pinnacle has dropped a little currently -3 +106 for Chicago. It appears to be headed back down a little on both Pinnacle and Matchbook.

I don't expect this to widely go to 2.5 tonight for sure, its headed in the wrong direction (if that's what you want) at the major books. In my opinion its going to hang around 3 for at least another day.

The money is really going to have to hammer on Carolina +3 for them to move it. Sportsbook only has this game 57%-43%: Seattle (59%) and New England (68%) are both more one sided at the moment.

Here's a good resource you can use to track the line movement:
covers.com page for the game (http://www.covers.com/sports/common/lineHistory.aspx?eventId=21866&sport=nfl)

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
do you guys think that the line will drop to -2.5?

[/ QUOTE ]

BetCris has -2.5 -110

Pinnacle has dropped a little currently -3 +106 for Chicago. It appears to be headed back down a little on both Pinnacle and Matchbook.

I don't expect this to widely go to 2.5 tonight for sure, its headed in the wrong direction (if that's what you want) at the major books. In my opinion its going to hang around 3 for at least another day.

The money is really going to have to hammer on Carolina +3 for them to move it. Sportsbook only has this game 57%-43%: Seattle (59%) and New England (68%) are both more one sided at the moment.

Here's a good resource you can use to track the line movement:
covers.com page for the game (http://www.covers.com/sports/common/lineHistory.aspx?eventId=21866&sport=nfl)

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the link - if i'm going for the bears i WANT the line to drop don't i?? or are you talking about the vig is going up on the sites?

[Performify]

Yes if you're on the Bears you would strongly want the line to drop to -2.5. If you're on Carolina you'd obviously much prefer +3

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really dont see any major trends on this game. . .

[/ QUOTE ]
-- Bye teams have dominated their first playoff game.
-- Warm weather and/or dome teams playing cold away games do suffer.

[/ QUOTE ]

And a 3rd trend I hadn't even noticed until now: this will be Carolina's 3rd straight road game.

[Performify]

Chicago -2.5 -113 as the standard line on Pinny right now.

Important not just for the line update, but Chicago now teases to +3.5 /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Dropped 3-unit tease on Chicago +3.5 Seattle -3 which I see as the best available. Evaluating others.

[craig]

I am not picking on you tonight Performify, I promise, but the value in 6 point teasers is to get the 3 and the 7. In this case, you are giving up quite a bit.

craig

[Performify]

whyso?

Seattle is moving across the seven and to a push on the three, which seems valuable.

Chicago is moving across a push at -3 and and a win on +3. That seems valuable in that I expect the game to be exceedingly close and have a high likelihood of being decided by a FG either way.

is moving across -3 through +3 not seen as "counting" for some reason?

Would the added vig of a 6.5 point teaser be more valuable despite the added juice, moving to Chicago +4 and Seattle -2.5 ?

Appreciate the feedback / thoughts / comments from you or the field...

[craig]

Because the value of the 6 point teaser is from going through the 7 and 3. If you already have the 7, then you have wasted value. Remember you are laying approx. -242 (my number may be off a bit) on each side of the teaser. What is the % difference betwee -2.5 and +3.5? Once you figure that out, you can see why this might not be a good tease. If you like CHI, in this case you are better off laying the 2.5. Yes, you might lose, but that doesn't make it wrong. Just like you might win with your teaser, but that doesn't make it right.

There are basic strategy teasers that are proven winners (I am not going to discuss those here; feel free to PM anybody).

craig

[ravensfan]

Hedge? Pick up Chicago -2.5 -113, then sell Carolina -2.5 +150? Don't see either team really winning by <3 points here...

What does everyone think of the total? I think 30 is a little low, especially with Steve Smith worth a possible TD just b/c he's such a mismatch and Delhomme being a great playoff QB? Is it likely that the total could move up and allow a hedge?

I really like Chicago since they seem to be so dominant defensively at every level defensively and don't have any holes to attack in that D. I don't have too much faith in Carolina's D all told, i don't believe they're too strong up the middle and the Bears are so big they might be able to push back the speed guys on Carolina's Line and then pound the ball, possibly opening up some big plays for Moose. My only question is Grossman at QB, we've seen how rookie QBs have done so far, and he doesn't even have a complete season under his belt... I think the Bears D reminds me of the Ravens 01 D, but the problem is they don't have a very good caretaker at QB.... I think Carolina beating up on a deflated Atlanta team was an anamoly but their win last week was impressive, although the Giants had no LB help and the frequent 2nd and shorts weren't hurting... Also, i don't think the weather was too much of a factor in NY, but it may well be in Chicago... The bye can't hurt too much either.

I like locking in some money on the competing -2.5s, but then putting more money on the Bears (ie. if betting on Carolina, take the +150 for them to win by >2.5 to reduce your exposure). I also think that the game might go over since there might be a few turnovers that lead to TDs and maybe one or two actual solid drives, especially if the last game was any indication.

[Schwartzy61]

[ QUOTE ]
Carolina isnt a Florida team but Grossman is a Florida QB

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm...

Rex Grossman

Hometown: Bloomington, INDIANA

College: Florida (Left Early for Draft)

3 years in the NFL...

Ok, I don't know much about the climate in Bloomington, but it seems it has harsher winters than Florida. So basically this guy spends 18 years in Indiana, 4 years in Florida, and then 3 years in Chicago, but he is somehow gonna freeze up in the cold?

Delhomme has the sperience, but this guy is from Louisiana, went to Louisiana-Lafayette, and spent his career in New Orleans and Carolina. Seems like the QB most effected by the cold will be him. Of course the fact that Delhomme has already led Carolina to the Super Bowl is probably more important than the "wind chill."

But I just thought I'd throw that out there to anyone who thinks the "cold" is gonna affect Grossman because he's a "Florida" QB...

[craig]

Here is an analogy: Why did the Red Sox spend all that money on Schilling in 2004? They needed him to face the toughest batting orders (the AL East). Now, would he still been worth as much if he faced nothing but crappy hitters? I would say no. An average pitcher can get out crappy hitters. It is the same with 6 point teasers. You get full value out of them by crossing the 7 and the 3, not by crossing crappy numbers.

craig

[ravensfan]

I see where Craig's point can make sense mathematically... I'd be interested in doing the work to find out the probs... Do you think that in a low scoring game a teaser on the over/under and the winning team would be good? Ie. you like Carolina and think they can score at least 10, so take the +3 and move it a bit? For example, you can get Carolina +9 and over 24points? Now if you like Carolina this might not be a bad idea...

I think Craig's point was: if you like it by a FG, just take carolina... My understanding is that hardly any games ever end in a difference of <3 points, so you're losing a lot of value just getting through the -2 to +2 range.

Personally, I normally sell points if i'm betting on a dog of <3, sometimes even 3 points (ie. i'll make them a 2.5 favorite). Bet365 lets you do this and it's a great feature since a small percentage of games end in such a small spread, but they give you 5 cents per half point through the range...

[craig]

One last thing: I just did the number of teasing -2.5 to +3.5 and when this is converted you should lay -229, but you are actually paying -242.

Okay, I am now done with my argument /images/graemlins/smile.gif (thank you Doug for the line converter).

craig

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
I see where Craig's point can make sense mathematically... I'd be interested in doing the work to find out the probs... Do you think that in a low scoring game a teaser on the over/under and the winning team would be good? Ie. you like Carolina and think they can score at least 10, so take the +3 and move it a bit? For example, you can get Carolina +9 and over 24points? Now if you like Carolina this might not be a bad idea...


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, low total correlations come into play more where there is a big dog. For example, if in this game it was CHI -10 and O/U of 30.5, these two are strong correlation and would probably call more for a parlay (even if you think there is only a 50% chance of CHI covering the 10 points. Most likely if they cover the 10 points, the game will go over the 30.5. But, in this case, with with a spread of 3 and a low total, correlation is probably fairly low. One can't really decide if either team covers if the game will go over.

But, once again, by teasing CAR +3 to 9, you are giving up value on the teaser (though it is better than performify's teaser), because you have already attained the 3. Generally if you think there is a 52% chance of CAR +3, you are better off buying the half point. If it was CAR +2.5, then you are getting full value on your teaser.

craig

edit to add: You have the correlations reversed here: If you insist on teasing CAR to +9, then you are better off taking the under +36.

craig

[Kevroc]

Okay point taken... but 18 years in Indy...

Do diaper days count? He should cream Carolina's D based on his pop warner stats alone!

[PropPlayer]

I can see this being a low scoring game with a final score like 9-7 or 10-9 13-3. I have trouble seeing this game reach 30pts but it very well could. I got an open Tease with Carolina as the final game +10 and have Chicago -3 -101. I like my chances of coming out ahead on this but we'll see. I'm hoping for Chicago to win by a touchdown. I still win quite a bit if the +10 pushes because this was a 5 team tease and have the most at risk on -3 Chicago so am okay if this pushes to. I would be thrilled with a push/win and jumping for joy with a win/win.
If I only win 1 side then I'm looking for Chicago -3 because I have 5 units at risk here. If Chicago wins by less than 2 or looses the game then I win 5 units on the Tease and break even. If I loose the Tease then I am way up because the Tease was a much smaller risk ammount.