Boxing Dogs

[ThaHero]

I realize I'm posting this very late, so I may not get many responses, but it takes an act of God to prevent me from typing ANYTHING when I get in front of the computer while drunk.

Today, we witnessed a slight tragedy. Zab Judah lost after the 8th round, costing countless 2+2ers a few bucks. Going into the fight, Judah was favored at -1500.

Now, my drunken question. If anyone has a history of the previous years -1000 and above fights, what is the record in said bouts? I know for a fact Tyson was favored by close to -1000 last year, so his opponent was maybe +800 at the least? I also wonder about the odds on the Raheem-Morales fight. I don't know if there are odds in picking a few underdogs, but it seems the lines are WAY skewed for a mano-a-mano sport, not a team sport. A lucky punch could make fortunes, and so could a style that doesn't match up well with the favorite.

Just wondering if there is any value, as you can bet them small, and win big. I suppose you'd break even over time? I'm no good with statistics. Any thoughts on this is appreciated. Also, I'm not suggesting betting EVERY huge dog- just those that an experienced boxing fan may think has a shot. Maybe 10 fights a year or so, maybe even less.

[Uglyowl]

I quote:

Because great athletes at 170 pounds or more have much better options than back in the glory days of pugilism, we are not finding as many dominant fighters. As such, many of the champions have little more than “paper belts” and the savvy handicapper can find some excellent value by bucking these false champions when they are big favorites.”

Covers Expert Tony George said, “James Toney (beating John Ruiz) was no surprise because Ruiz is overrated and insiders like me knew it. Vegas books get more action on boxing than offshore books, but we have found opportunity with underdogs in our selections so far in 2005. There is much more parity in boxing than most think. More favorites cover the moneyline than underdogs, but with small dogs, we have found some opportunity this year in evenly contested matchups.”


Books usually take a hit when a boxing underdog wins. Boxing wagering is the opposite of NFL in that the public often backs favorites on NFL games, but likes to take the underdog in boxing. Bookmakers know gamblers are not attracted laying 1-10 on a heavy favorite.

[Tuds75]

Here are some big Dogs who had large odds against them and won in the last year:

Zahir Raheem (+600) vs. Erik Morrales (-800)
Zuri Lawerence (+650) vs. Jameel McCline (-1000)
Roman Karmazin (+400) vs. Kassim Ouma (-700)
Carlos Maussa (+350) vs. Vivian Harris (-500)
Humberto Soto (+350) vs. Rocky Juarvez (-500)
Nate Campbell (+350) vs. Kid Diamond (-500)
Kevin McBride (+600) Vs. Mike Tyson (-1200)
Carlos Baldomir (+750) vs. Zab Judah (-1300)
O'Neil Bell (+330) vs. Jean Mark Mormeck (-500)
*All odds are as best as I can remember*

The point I am trying to make is in most of last year's big upsets the favored fighter did not preform up to their ability and were upset. Of the fights listed above only maybe Bell, Roman and Soto are the only fighters I take in a rematch (I am excluding McBride because at this point ANYONE can beat Tyson plus he is finished so point is moot). Raheem is good, but Morrales did not look himself during that fight. Again, most of the big upsets the favored fighter "did not show up" for the fight. Either they coasted in camp or didn't really put fourth much effort in the ring.
So to bet on a fighter with bigs odds against them, basically you are betting on failure from the favorite. This is no better evident in Judah's and Tyson's fights. Both guys SHOULD have clean-up against their opponet because big money was waiting in the wings, but both failed miserably. So look for fighters with a history of overlooking fighters and ones with close fights in "meaningless" fights. This is where the big dogs are going to come from.

I guess the best part about a Big dog winning is in their next fight where the odds on them are inflated because of one performance. This will give the opponet of the upseter a better price for the win (ex Rahman/Lewis II, they were almost even odds in that fight).

tuds