Is this worth an arbitrage? I have 5u to win 7u on Steelers +4

[Performify]

Because of my "Wild Orange Roses" four team teaser and the two-team teaser recommended in my Wildcard Round picks thread, I have five units riding on the Steelers +4 and stand to win seven units.

The money isn't specifically a big deal, i'm not looking to hedge here. I'm just curious if there's a worthwhile arbitrage here given that I'm seven points off the current line.

With the current moneyline around +140 on Cincy I don't see it as more +EV to try the arbitrage: I'm exceedingly happy with my position on Pitt +4.

But I could drop five units on the Cincy moneyline and be in the following position:

Cincy lose: -5 units on ML, +7 units on tease, net +2 units
Cincy win by 1-3: +7 units on ML, +7 units on tease, net +14 units
Cincy win by 4: +7 units on ML, +3 units (or so) on tease, net +10 units
Cincy wins by 5+: +7 units on ML, -5 units on tease, net +2 units.

thoughts from the field?

[bills217]

I'd stick w/ what you have. Nothing wrong with 5 units to win 7 on Steelers +4...the other idea sounds like more of a hedge.

[tech]

If the money isn't a big deal, stick with what you have, unless you think the ML bet is +EV by itself.

[BobJoeJim]

If the current line of Pittsburgh -3 is an accurate representation of the odds, then your four scenarios in the arb have roughly the following odds:

Cincinnati loses: 60% chance to win 2 units (and the +140 moneyline is negative EV, you would need +146 to break even)
Cincy win by 1-3: 14% chance of +14 units
Cincy wins by 4: 3% chance of +10 units
Cincy wins by 5+: 23% chance of +2 units

So your overall EV on the arb is 3.92 units.
Your current bet of 5 to win 7 on Pitt +4, meanwhile, is about 73% to win and 24.5% to lose, 2.5% to push, giving you an EV of 3.88 units.

So if you think the current 3 point line is accurate then the arb does minimally increase your EV, but probably isn't worth it if you even suspect that maybe the line is perhaps less than perfectly set /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DougOzzzz]

FYI, you can get CIN +3.5 +224 at Pinnacle for a guaranteed payout of about 3.3 units with a small chance at 8.3 units (assuming ties push with your teaser bet).

[Performify]

DougOzzzz: Ties do push in both. Solid alternative: not much chance at a big payout but would be free money.

BobJoeJim, thanks for taking the time to post that detail.

Tech + Bills: thanks for the responses

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
DougOzzzz: Ties do push in both. Solid alternative: not much chance at a big payout but would be free money.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with the wording here. I think "guaranteed money" would be more appropriate.

[Performify]

you're right. not free because it took risk to get it here, but from this point i can guarantee a profit if I were to chose to do so with an arbitrage.

[PropPlayer]

Well one of us for sure and maybe both will win. I have the Bengals +10 . Last night took a 3 team Tease of:

Pats -1
Pats/Jags Under 44
Bengals +10