Banking bad players at Pia Gow +Ev?

[lefty rosen]

I have a friend who insists if you bank terrible paigow players you have an advantage against the rake? Is there one? I know the average player gets buried in the game, but he insists he wins when sees players making mistakes in their second best strategy? /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[SheetWise]

Of course you can have an advantage. It does, however, depend on how bad they are. If I simply watched a couple of hands and saw errors -- I'd jump in.

[Jeffage]

You def have an advantage in this case, but the advantage is slight (unless they are godawful) so expect HUGE variance and bring LOTS of hundred dollar bills.

Jeff

[Terry]

Yes, using a good strategy, the game is beatable, and yes, the variance is huge and requires a very large bankroll.

Simply playing the house way and taking the bank can be +EV if the amount you bet as player is significantly less than amount you play against as banker, but playing "house way" is almost certainly not the best way.

Since most people do tend to play house way, it is possible to derive a better strategy, designed to maximize EV against that particular house way. That strategy will not be optimal against a player who is "making mistakes", i.e., deviating from house way.

If the player is playing aggressively, pumping up the low hand more than normal, looking for more decisions and fewer pushes, or if he is playing conservatively, pumping up the high hand to increase pushes, your ideal strategy against that player must change. Coming up with the correct counter-strategy isn't something you can do on the fly ... and even if you've already developed the proper strategy, whether or not you want to implement it depends on how much that player is betting compared to the others; you only want to change if his action totally overwhelms the other bets.

Nitpicking aside, if players are making mistakes AND you know a decent strategy AND you don't mind playing a slow, boring game, sure, take a seat. Just keep in mind that the "mistakes" someone is making might actually be better than automatically playing house way.