Performify
01-06-2006, 06:47 PM
Throughout the post season, I'll be posting picks (both straight up and ATS) and analysis for every postseason NFL game. While I'll be posting predictions for all the games, that doesn't necessarily mean I'll be playing them all (except small bets for record-keeping purposes): so I'll also be posting whatever plays I'm actually making at the end. With that being said, lets run through analysis on this week's games in order of occurrence:
For those that missed it, my regular season record:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Washington Redskins (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Under: 37)
I believe this is the closest game to call this weekend. . You've got a matchup of two top defenses, Tampa Bay being #1 in the NFL (#6 against the pass and the run) and Washington sitting at #9 overall, #13 rush and #10 pass. The teams match up well: two top defenses (edge to Tampa), two good coaches (edge to Gibbs @ Washington over Gruden @ Tampa), two good running backs (Portis and Cadillac, slight edge to Portis), two long ball threats (Moss and Galloway, edge for Moss), and two excellent defensive coordinators (Gregg Williams for Washington and Monte Kiffin for Tampa, coinflip).
However the Redskins do have the edge at quarterback: Brunells has a sore knee and is clearly past his prime, but he's still got an edge on rookie Chris Simms. The Redskins also have a veteran offensive line, compared to Tampa who simply doesn't. Washington is also riding a five game winning (and covering) streak, compared to a two-game win streak for Tampa.
That being said, I'm going with Tampa Bay here in a narrow victory. Simms may be a rookie but he's performed adequately this season, with only two interceptions in his last 184 passes. Washington is on a very hot streak, but I believe the streak they needed just to make the playoffs may have exhausted the team. Its certainly banged up their secondary: both starting Redskins corners are injured, veteran Shawn Springs is not expected to play, rookie starting CB Carlos Rogers is expected to play but will not be 100% if he does. I think that's enough of an edge to push this game to Tampa. If Tampa's offensive line can pick up the blitz, the holes at corner should allow Simms to have success throwing the ball. The Bucs are also 6-0 when Cadillac gets 100+ on the ground, and if they can get over 100 on the ground I expect that trend to continue here.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at New England Patriots (Over/Under: 37)
Jacksonville is the worst twelve win team in NFL history. The Jaguars had the fortune of going 9-1 against teams with losing records, were 3-3 against winning teams, and beat just one winning team on the road this year: a Pittsburgh team missing Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward. So since week two, the Jags have only beaten one winning team whose QB was healthy at the time. The Jags also trailed in eight of their twelve wins. Jags QB Byron Leftwich is expected to make his return, in first start since being injured Nov. 27. Question is how rusty will he be, having missed the last six games. New England also has the obvious weather advantage, with a warm-weather team playing in Foxboro in January.
Playoff experience is an obvious advantage. Of the 53 players on the New England Patriots' roster, 36 own Super Bowl rings and 30 have two or more. Whereas the Jaguars have one player, Jimmy Smith, who owns a Super Bowl ring and one player, Reggie Hayward, who was in the playoffs last year. And of course, Pats coach Bill Belichick will be coaching his 12th playoff game ( in which he's 9-0 with the Patriots). Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio will be coaching his first playoff game.
There's little question that the Patriots will win this game. The big question is, can they cover more than a touchdown? Between the possibility of a backdoor cover with a solid Jacksonville passing attack, the possibility of a close low-scoring game due to inclement weather, and the fact that everyone on the planet seems to love the Patriots here... its still really close I think. I think this game has tremendous value in a teaser, taking the Patriots down to -2 (crossing -7 and -3). Straight up, I think its almost too close to call, but I'm going to go with the Jags covering but the Pats winning.
Prediction: New England 24, Jacksonville 17. If its inclement weather at kickoff, drop the final to 21-14.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at New York Football Giants (Over/Under: 43.5)
This game is a complete contrast in football teams: the Giants bring in a top-tier offense (#4 in the NFL, #6 vs rush #11 vs pass) and a mediocre defense (#24 overall, #12 rush #27 pass) and the Panthers bring in a top tier defense (#3 in the NFL, #4 rush #9 pass) and a mediocre offense (#22 overall, #19 rush #17 pass). New York is 8-1 at home this season, but faces a tough test in Carolina.
The Giants have ridden Tiki Barber to success this season, but the Panthers have done well this season in shutting down top-tier RBs. The Panthers have likewise ridden their offensive star Steve Smith this season, but here's the major difference and the reason this game is going this way: no one has been able to stop Steve Smith (except Steve Smith getting himself tossed, but that's another story). The Panthers can counter Tiki: load the line, put eight men in the box to stop the run. However the Panthers don't need to pass blitz: like Chicago they've had a lot of success creating pressure with their front four and letting their linebackers defend the pass. So expect a safety walked up but not always blitzing and linebackers plugging gaps but not blitzing often, all spelling a long day for Tiki Barber.
The Panthers will force this game on the shoulders of Eli Manning, and he's just not ready for it. More importantly the Giants mediocre defense won't be enough to stop Steve Smith: even in double coverage Carolina has gotten him free all season with crossing routes and screens. The Giants defense is going to be in trouble all game: they've got banged up linebackers and will be forced to cover Smith with rookie CB Corey Webster and probably have to double-team with a safety. With the Linebacker injuries and assuming a safety is often drawn to Smith, Foster should have a big game rushing right up the middle of the weak Giants defense.
Carolina certainly has the playoff edge experience. Most of this current Panthers team was part of Carolina's run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and has an understanding of what it takes to win in the playoffs. The Giants haven't been to the postseason since 2002, and many of the players, most notably and most obviously rookie QB Eli Manning, will be experiencing the postseason for the first time.
Prediction: 24-21 Carolina in the upset and outright win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Over/Under: 46.5)
The biggest story of this matchup is that the road team is the favorite over the home division winner. Cincinnati beat the Steelers 38-31 in Pittsburgh on Dec. 4, and Cincinnati won the AFC North over the Steelers. However, the Steelers finished with the same record as the Bengals (11-5) by winning their last four games, and also beat the Bengals 27-13 in Cincinnati in week six. On the other side of the field, Cincinnati finished flat by losing their last two games. They lost 37-27 to Buffalo on Christmas Eve and then played mostly backups in getting dominated 37-3 at Kansas City.
This game is going to be a contrast in styles: the pass-first offense of the Bengals against the run-heavy Steelers. Make no mistake, Pittsburgh will be run-first here. In Week 6, the Steelers ran for 221 yards in Cincinnati (season high for the team). In their second meeting, which they lost, the Steelers went pass-heavy and managed only 95 yards in a game that turned in to an offensive shootout. The Steelers have a significant edge defensively (#4 overall, #16 vs the pass), and especially against the run (#3 in the NFL). The Bengals finished the season 28th in the NFL in defense, #20 vs. the run and #26 vs the pass. However, the Bengals do lead the NFL in turnovers (+25 on the season) but Pittsburgh is a respectable +7. Cincy has struggled against the run all season (giving up more than 200 yards twice, to the Steelers and the Chiefs). Assuming the Steelers indeed pound the ball on the ground they should be able to control the tempo and in fact control the game. Defensively the Steelers will be blitz-heavy to keep pressure on Palmer, especially blitzing the left side (attacking Cincy right tackle Willie Anderson and right guard Bobbie Williams, both of whom are weak against the pass rush). The wildcard factor in this game is going to be the turnovers: both of these teams have aggressive defenses that create turnovers, and whichever team can't protect the ball is going to win this game.
Playoff experience is also a factor here. The Steelers have 42 players on their 53-man roster with playoff experience, 40 of them with the Steelers. The Bengals have 13 players with playoff experience, none with the Bengals. The Bengals are in the playoffs for the first time since 1990. Whereas the Steelers are in the playoffs for the 10th time since 1992, when Bill Cowher took over as coach.
Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger is 3-1 as a starter against Cincinnati. On the other side, Palmer is fighting a pulled groin muscle, and has been sloppy in the past month with five interceptions in his last four games and a career-low 93 yards passing against the Cleveland four weeks ago. With Bill Cowher as their coach since 1992, the Steelers are 20-8 against the Bengals, 11-3 in Cincinnati. However, the Steelers are 0-3 on the road in the playoffs under Bill Cowher. But despite that record, Pittsburgh is 13-3 on the road the past two seasons and 6-2 this year. This is a team that knows how to win on the road, and everyone in the organization knows that they've come up short on the road in the playoffs. And while they've lost on the road in the playoffs, they have played well in those losses. Two of their three road losses came in overtime: at Kansas City following the 1993 season and at Tennessee following the 2002 season. This is the year that the Steelers can and will reverse Cowher's playoff road record.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Bengals 17. The winner of this game gets to go on and lose to Indianapolis on 1/15.
My plays for the week:
For the record, I also have my previously posted "Wild Orange Roses" teaser still live, risking 2.5 units to win five units on Pitt +4 NE -1.
Tease Pittsburgh +3 New England -2: 5.5 units to win 5 units
Pittsburgh -3 (+101): 1 unit to win 1.01 units. Game of the Week.
Carolina Moneyline play (+122): 1 unit to win 1.22 units.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (-103): .103 units to win .1 unit
Jacksonville +7.5 (moved the line for lower juice) (-108): .108 units to win .1 unit
as usual cross-posted to my poker blog, if you want to see my previous picks and analysis its a lot easier to find in the archives over there imo: www.performify.com (http://www.performify.com)
For those that missed it, my regular season record:
Final NFL regular season record: 10-7 on Game of the Week, +21.5 units as posted
Final NFL regular season record: 33-35 overall, +14.5 units for the year on all posted plays.
Washington Redskins (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Over/Under: 37)
I believe this is the closest game to call this weekend. . You've got a matchup of two top defenses, Tampa Bay being #1 in the NFL (#6 against the pass and the run) and Washington sitting at #9 overall, #13 rush and #10 pass. The teams match up well: two top defenses (edge to Tampa), two good coaches (edge to Gibbs @ Washington over Gruden @ Tampa), two good running backs (Portis and Cadillac, slight edge to Portis), two long ball threats (Moss and Galloway, edge for Moss), and two excellent defensive coordinators (Gregg Williams for Washington and Monte Kiffin for Tampa, coinflip).
However the Redskins do have the edge at quarterback: Brunells has a sore knee and is clearly past his prime, but he's still got an edge on rookie Chris Simms. The Redskins also have a veteran offensive line, compared to Tampa who simply doesn't. Washington is also riding a five game winning (and covering) streak, compared to a two-game win streak for Tampa.
That being said, I'm going with Tampa Bay here in a narrow victory. Simms may be a rookie but he's performed adequately this season, with only two interceptions in his last 184 passes. Washington is on a very hot streak, but I believe the streak they needed just to make the playoffs may have exhausted the team. Its certainly banged up their secondary: both starting Redskins corners are injured, veteran Shawn Springs is not expected to play, rookie starting CB Carlos Rogers is expected to play but will not be 100% if he does. I think that's enough of an edge to push this game to Tampa. If Tampa's offensive line can pick up the blitz, the holes at corner should allow Simms to have success throwing the ball. The Bucs are also 6-0 when Cadillac gets 100+ on the ground, and if they can get over 100 on the ground I expect that trend to continue here.
Prediction: Tampa Bay 20, Washington 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at New England Patriots (Over/Under: 37)
Jacksonville is the worst twelve win team in NFL history. The Jaguars had the fortune of going 9-1 against teams with losing records, were 3-3 against winning teams, and beat just one winning team on the road this year: a Pittsburgh team missing Ben Roethlisberger and Hines Ward. So since week two, the Jags have only beaten one winning team whose QB was healthy at the time. The Jags also trailed in eight of their twelve wins. Jags QB Byron Leftwich is expected to make his return, in first start since being injured Nov. 27. Question is how rusty will he be, having missed the last six games. New England also has the obvious weather advantage, with a warm-weather team playing in Foxboro in January.
Playoff experience is an obvious advantage. Of the 53 players on the New England Patriots' roster, 36 own Super Bowl rings and 30 have two or more. Whereas the Jaguars have one player, Jimmy Smith, who owns a Super Bowl ring and one player, Reggie Hayward, who was in the playoffs last year. And of course, Pats coach Bill Belichick will be coaching his 12th playoff game ( in which he's 9-0 with the Patriots). Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio will be coaching his first playoff game.
There's little question that the Patriots will win this game. The big question is, can they cover more than a touchdown? Between the possibility of a backdoor cover with a solid Jacksonville passing attack, the possibility of a close low-scoring game due to inclement weather, and the fact that everyone on the planet seems to love the Patriots here... its still really close I think. I think this game has tremendous value in a teaser, taking the Patriots down to -2 (crossing -7 and -3). Straight up, I think its almost too close to call, but I'm going to go with the Jags covering but the Pats winning.
Prediction: New England 24, Jacksonville 17. If its inclement weather at kickoff, drop the final to 21-14.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at New York Football Giants (Over/Under: 43.5)
This game is a complete contrast in football teams: the Giants bring in a top-tier offense (#4 in the NFL, #6 vs rush #11 vs pass) and a mediocre defense (#24 overall, #12 rush #27 pass) and the Panthers bring in a top tier defense (#3 in the NFL, #4 rush #9 pass) and a mediocre offense (#22 overall, #19 rush #17 pass). New York is 8-1 at home this season, but faces a tough test in Carolina.
The Giants have ridden Tiki Barber to success this season, but the Panthers have done well this season in shutting down top-tier RBs. The Panthers have likewise ridden their offensive star Steve Smith this season, but here's the major difference and the reason this game is going this way: no one has been able to stop Steve Smith (except Steve Smith getting himself tossed, but that's another story). The Panthers can counter Tiki: load the line, put eight men in the box to stop the run. However the Panthers don't need to pass blitz: like Chicago they've had a lot of success creating pressure with their front four and letting their linebackers defend the pass. So expect a safety walked up but not always blitzing and linebackers plugging gaps but not blitzing often, all spelling a long day for Tiki Barber.
The Panthers will force this game on the shoulders of Eli Manning, and he's just not ready for it. More importantly the Giants mediocre defense won't be enough to stop Steve Smith: even in double coverage Carolina has gotten him free all season with crossing routes and screens. The Giants defense is going to be in trouble all game: they've got banged up linebackers and will be forced to cover Smith with rookie CB Corey Webster and probably have to double-team with a safety. With the Linebacker injuries and assuming a safety is often drawn to Smith, Foster should have a big game rushing right up the middle of the weak Giants defense.
Carolina certainly has the playoff edge experience. Most of this current Panthers team was part of Carolina's run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago and has an understanding of what it takes to win in the playoffs. The Giants haven't been to the postseason since 2002, and many of the players, most notably and most obviously rookie QB Eli Manning, will be experiencing the postseason for the first time.
Prediction: 24-21 Carolina in the upset and outright win.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Over/Under: 46.5)
The biggest story of this matchup is that the road team is the favorite over the home division winner. Cincinnati beat the Steelers 38-31 in Pittsburgh on Dec. 4, and Cincinnati won the AFC North over the Steelers. However, the Steelers finished with the same record as the Bengals (11-5) by winning their last four games, and also beat the Bengals 27-13 in Cincinnati in week six. On the other side of the field, Cincinnati finished flat by losing their last two games. They lost 37-27 to Buffalo on Christmas Eve and then played mostly backups in getting dominated 37-3 at Kansas City.
This game is going to be a contrast in styles: the pass-first offense of the Bengals against the run-heavy Steelers. Make no mistake, Pittsburgh will be run-first here. In Week 6, the Steelers ran for 221 yards in Cincinnati (season high for the team). In their second meeting, which they lost, the Steelers went pass-heavy and managed only 95 yards in a game that turned in to an offensive shootout. The Steelers have a significant edge defensively (#4 overall, #16 vs the pass), and especially against the run (#3 in the NFL). The Bengals finished the season 28th in the NFL in defense, #20 vs. the run and #26 vs the pass. However, the Bengals do lead the NFL in turnovers (+25 on the season) but Pittsburgh is a respectable +7. Cincy has struggled against the run all season (giving up more than 200 yards twice, to the Steelers and the Chiefs). Assuming the Steelers indeed pound the ball on the ground they should be able to control the tempo and in fact control the game. Defensively the Steelers will be blitz-heavy to keep pressure on Palmer, especially blitzing the left side (attacking Cincy right tackle Willie Anderson and right guard Bobbie Williams, both of whom are weak against the pass rush). The wildcard factor in this game is going to be the turnovers: both of these teams have aggressive defenses that create turnovers, and whichever team can't protect the ball is going to win this game.
Playoff experience is also a factor here. The Steelers have 42 players on their 53-man roster with playoff experience, 40 of them with the Steelers. The Bengals have 13 players with playoff experience, none with the Bengals. The Bengals are in the playoffs for the first time since 1990. Whereas the Steelers are in the playoffs for the 10th time since 1992, when Bill Cowher took over as coach.
Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger is 3-1 as a starter against Cincinnati. On the other side, Palmer is fighting a pulled groin muscle, and has been sloppy in the past month with five interceptions in his last four games and a career-low 93 yards passing against the Cleveland four weeks ago. With Bill Cowher as their coach since 1992, the Steelers are 20-8 against the Bengals, 11-3 in Cincinnati. However, the Steelers are 0-3 on the road in the playoffs under Bill Cowher. But despite that record, Pittsburgh is 13-3 on the road the past two seasons and 6-2 this year. This is a team that knows how to win on the road, and everyone in the organization knows that they've come up short on the road in the playoffs. And while they've lost on the road in the playoffs, they have played well in those losses. Two of their three road losses came in overtime: at Kansas City following the 1993 season and at Tennessee following the 2002 season. This is the year that the Steelers can and will reverse Cowher's playoff road record.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Bengals 17. The winner of this game gets to go on and lose to Indianapolis on 1/15.
My plays for the week:
For the record, I also have my previously posted "Wild Orange Roses" teaser still live, risking 2.5 units to win five units on Pitt +4 NE -1.
Tease Pittsburgh +3 New England -2: 5.5 units to win 5 units
Pittsburgh -3 (+101): 1 unit to win 1.01 units. Game of the Week.
Carolina Moneyline play (+122): 1 unit to win 1.22 units.
Tampa Bay -2.5 (-103): .103 units to win .1 unit
Jacksonville +7.5 (moved the line for lower juice) (-108): .108 units to win .1 unit
as usual cross-posted to my poker blog, if you want to see my previous picks and analysis its a lot easier to find in the archives over there imo: www.performify.com (http://www.performify.com)