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hmkpoker
03-10-2006, 12:57 AM
DISCLAIMER: I realize that this is going to sound really, really, REALLY stupid to some, if not all the people, that read this. I recognize that this is probably tilt talking, but I'd like to ask anyway

I've started playing blackjack at various casinos for the bonuses recently. I've cleared three so far, and was surprised that this actually works. Recently I've been playing the $200 bonus on bet365, and I guess I'm going through a "downswing," I'm down $150 off the bonus playing $2/hand with $2000 wagered.

Now, I'm familiar with the variance in poker, and I know how big downswings can be there (though I'm not sure what the SD/100 is in BJ). I know poker isn't rigged; there's no point for the house to do that since they make money either way.

But in BJ, you're playing against the house. Games with low house edge don't have enough EV for the house for them to profit off the bonus against a player playing BJ with perfect strategy, and players can and do play for the EV and make the casinos lose money.

So my overly-tilted conspiracy thinking made me think: is it possible that casinos can "blacklist" certain e-mail addresses or Neteller account numbers, and use RNG's with greater house edges against those players? Is there any certifications, regulations or business procedures keeping them from doing so?

Again, I know there's no good evidence for this and I acknowledge this is just tilted paranoia, but it seems at least mildly reasonable that casinos would want some kind of protection if they are offering bonuses that can be costly to them.

Pokeraddict
03-10-2006, 01:05 AM
Play at these casinos (http://www.casinomeister.com/casinos.html)

and not at these (http://www.casinomeister.com/rogue/index.html)

Isn't Bet365 Microgaming? It's legit, its just a bad run.

thing85
03-10-2006, 02:02 AM
Bet365 Casino is Playtech. And yes, it is legit.

Ken_AA
03-10-2006, 02:10 AM
[quoteI'm down $150 off the bonus playing $2/hand with $2000 wagered.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you've made about 1000 "bets" (splits and double downs counting as putting money down twice, so two bets).

So you've won about 465 of them and lost about 535.

Doesn't even sound like your being cheated if you were playing in a blackjack home game.

Ken

PS- Now in my case I'm down 75 bucks of my monthly 100 at Intercasino with only about 800 wagered so I'm obviously getting cheated, but you're not.

hmkpoker
03-10-2006, 03:39 AM
hehe

I'm not arguing that this is way outside the curve, I know I'm REALLY far away from having a sample size to make a real conclusion about anything...my first downswing just happened to spark the question of whether there's foul play amongst casinos.

Again, I acknowledged that this would sound like ignorant uber-tilt stupidity /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Packard
03-10-2006, 03:51 AM
Good advice from the above posters about casinomeister. That site is great for all casino players /images/graemlins/smile.gif

AncientPC
03-10-2006, 11:45 AM
Losing $150 with a bet size of $2 after 1,000 hands played ($2,000 wagered) = 1.91 standard deviation which is completely normal. 3-4 SD is a very rare occurance, 4+ SD is cause for suspicion.

lala
03-10-2006, 12:16 PM
a lot of variance with BJ. Downswings of thousands of $$ is common.

hmkpoker
03-10-2006, 10:10 PM
Well, that depends on the size of the bet, doesn't it?

Also, BJ has an expected infinite downswing; the house always has an edge.