NL 20 - TT with openended draw

[Basketgutt]

Villain was 16/0/3 for about 25 hands. Not seen him doing anything special..

Club on the Park Bargersville 0.1/0.2, hand converted by the iPoker Converter (http://www.talking-poker.com/hands/converter.aspx) at Talking-Poker (http://www.talking-poker.com)

saw flop | <font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($19.7)</font>
SB SB ($37.19)
BB ($6.15)
UTG ($3.4)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($50.57)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif
1 fold, Hero raises to 0.7, Button calls 0.7, SB calls 0.6, 1 fold.

Flop (2.3) 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB checks, Hero bets 1.6, Button raises to 4, 1 fold, Hero calls, shoves or reraises?


How often must he fold to make this push +EV if we expect that he have me beat if he calls?

[piebear]

You're getting 1.8:1 on your draw, and he may well already have you drawing to a split pot. He isn't folding TPTK/TPGK, two pair (most likely) or obviously a possible made straight.

raise to .8 pf and fold to his reraise. Shoving is mehh and calling is definately bad imo.

[kaipwn]

well if ur beat by over pair 2pair or trips you have 10 outs to hit str8 or your own set. so thats appx 45/10 = 4.5:1 to call and hit ~appx 22% to win and hit. your calling 2.4 into a 7.9 pot. 2.4/7.9 = %30 of pot and your no guarantee to hit turn

[mattgoody]

why raise to .8 pf? is 4xbb really that much better than 3.5xbb? This is either a fold or a shove, but based on villains stats, ur almost never ahead. Gotta fold this as he has a better pair a lot and sometimes some of ur outs.

[Reefypoopoo]

villian has like $15 behind, we gotta call $2.40 in a $8 pot. ez CALL.

(he's usually ahead here)