JJ facing HUGE overbet

[manbearpig]

Villain is something like 50/2/2. I am 16/15/9. Both over 100 hands or so.

I have abused this guy the last 3 or 4 orbits. We have been involved in at least 6 pots together, with me winning all of them. Only one showdown in that group, and I had top versus his middle pair.

Does he have air enough in this hand to make a call +EV?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

Button ($24.65)
Hero ($37)
BB ($32.80)
UTG ($50.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, BB calls $2.25, Button folds.

Flop: ($5.75) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $30.3 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $39.55

[gregorio]

If villain was 16/15/9 maybe you can call, but not vs 50/2/2. PFR=2 is not 4-betting AK or QQ, and VPIP 50 is calling with tons of hands with Ks or 9s.

[Speedlimits]

betting this flop is no good.

[Ekos]

[ QUOTE ]
betting this flop is no good.

[/ QUOTE ]...because villain seems aggro based on what we've seen in the OP (which is very little info)

OP needs to give us more information to determine if betting is not a good idea: if villain has been calling hero down in order to adjust to hero taking pots from him, hero should be betting. if villain is c/raising type, then hero should consider checking behind in this spot.

[manbearpig]

He had played back at me a couple times. Never reraised pre flop but had CR me once when I had raised his SB from the button. He had been check/calling mostly when I was in position.

But this was BvB so I was first to act. I honestly thought he would call with any two to try and take it away later.

[cowpig]

I don't think you can assume he shoves like this with complete air, and there aren't any draws out. So if you're ahead, it's because he's shoving out of retardation with 55 or something. I think a 9 or K is much more likely.

If the board was a little wetter, I'd call.

Also, I don't like your super-small lead. I think you should either bet ~pot (so that he plays straight-forward and calls with A high/smaller pairs), or check/call (so that he fires with air). Betting smallish makes it too easy for him to get creative, and your hand is not one you want to be making tough decisions with.

[Reefypoopoo]

easy flop fold, I ch flop more than betting

[bozzer]

gotta let him have it on this dry of a flop.

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
gotta let him have it on this dry of a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does the wetness of the board matter here? Villain has a PFR of 2, that pretty much = AA, KK, QQ and AK...

If the flop were Qd 9s 8s, you would call because he could have AsKs /images/graemlins/ooo.gif?????

[Altreg]

I think this is clear fold,sure he calling your 3bet light so its K/10+,5+ in hes PF 3bet calling range and your call will be -ev

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]


How does the wetness of the board matter here? Villain has a PFR of 2, that pretty much = AA, KK, QQ and AK...

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering these stats, I don't like the 3bet PF either. You are basically turning your hand into a bluff PF, and once he calls, there is almost no way he doesn't have QQ+ or AK here.

[manbearpig]

Is 3 betting JJ not almost mandatory against a button raise? The BB came along for the ride and the original raiser folded preflop. So it ended up being BvB.

Which makes the bet on the flop a pretty standard continuation bet. There have been a couple of people who dont like the lead here. I would like to hear more of why some think it is a bad idea.

I do think he called me light but I can't figure out what hand he would just shove that beats me. Why would someone play a K or a 9 like that? Especially since I have been super aggro and betting into him consistently.

[gregorio]

3betting JJ is never manditory. JJ is a great hand, but unlike AA or KK, when you 3bet JJ you turn it into a bluff, since you have to fold to a shove.

What can happen when you 3bet JJ from SB:
a) Button folds most of there range and you win a small pot
b) Button shoves, and you lose 12BB and don't have a chance to hit a set which would probably win you a stack vs Button's shoving range
c) Button calls and you are in a bloated pot OOP and have to hope they fold to your cbet

If you call
a) You can hit your set and stack them
b) If they are opening light (and would have taken it down with a 3bet PF), you can c/r or float a ton of flops and win their cbet
c) You can c/f on a scarey board and lose 4BB instead of 12BB

If you are really uncomfortable playing OOP, then you can 3bet, but when you do that you are turning JJ into a bluff, and you turn JJ into a hand that is only slighty better than T9s. When you 3bet JJ or T9s, you often will win a small pot with either one PF; you sometimes will win with a cbet on the flop; you will rarely improve on the flop, and if your cbet gets called, at least you know your T9 is no good.

With JJ, you sometime will have a strong hand like an overpair even when you don't improve, and T9 is never going to be a strong hand if you miss the flop, so obviously after you 3bet and get called, you'd much rather have JJ than T9. And there are times for other factors you might want to 3bet JJ, but in a vaccuum, I am calling with JJ in SB more often than I am 3betting it. A lot of posters seem to prefer 3betting JJ more than calling with it, but I don't, and I certainly don't think the 3bet is manditory for the reasons above.

[crunchi]

calling PF is just fine considering villain is NEVER calling your 3bet with worse.

In regards to why betting the flop sucks, well, what worse hands call your cbet?

[PugsMcGee]

the C bet was fine

but u have to fold to the huge overbet...obvious fold imo

[Altreg]

[ QUOTE ]
3betting JJ is never manditory. JJ is a great hand, but unlike AA or KK, when you 3bet JJ you turn it into a bluff, since you have to fold to a shove.

What can happen when you 3bet JJ from SB:
a) Button folds most of there range and you win a small pot
b) Button shoves, and you lose 12BB and don't have a chance to hit a set which would probably win you a stack vs Button's shoving range
c) Button calls and you are in a bloated pot OOP and have to hope they fold to your cbet

If you call
a) You can hit your set and stack them
b) If they are opening light (and would have taken it down with a 3bet PF), you can c/r or float a ton of flops and win their cbet
c) You can c/f on a scarey board and lose 4BB instead of 12BB

If you are really uncomfortable playing OOP, then you can 3bet, but when you do that you are turning JJ into a bluff, and you turn JJ into a hand that is only slighty better than T9s. When you 3bet JJ or T9s, you often will win a small pot with either one PF; you sometimes will win with a cbet on the flop; you will rarely improve on the flop, and if your cbet gets called, at least you know your T9 is no good.

With JJ, you sometime will have a strong hand like an overpair even when you don't improve, and T9 is never going to be a strong hand if you miss the flop, so obviously after you 3bet and get called, you'd much rather have JJ than T9. And there are times for other factors you might want to 3bet JJ, but in a vaccuum, I am calling with JJ in SB more often than I am 3betting it. A lot of posters seem to prefer 3betting JJ more than calling with it, but I don't, and I certainly don't think the 3bet is manditory for the reasons above.

[/ QUOTE ]

its all ok and right ,but you forgot one thing,original poster told ,that he "abusing" this villain with 3betting,so i think 3bet pf its clearly better option
And as i told b4,easy fold on flop