50NL, we has a gutshot, we hits a gutshot, river plan?

[dlorc]

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Absolute Poker (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-Absolute.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($56.10)
BB ($19.85)
Hero ($25.35)
MP ($54.50)
CO ($20.15)
Button ($15.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($3.35) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $2.25</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $2.25.

Turn: ($7.85) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $5</font>, Hero calls $5.

River: ($17.85) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ??? </font>

We have about the size of the pot left, do we checkraise allin, valuebet if we think he's going to check behind here a lot or shove?

Interested in thoughts.

villain is 44/17 and his aggression ramps up through the streets, 0.6 preflop and 7 on the river.

[Fetzi]

hmm what do you think about check raising the turn? Then it is easier to get it in on the river.
But as played i would prob. c/r the river AI.
If he goes to showdown alot then just open shoving is as could as check raising imo.

[dlorc]

I dont really like CRing the turn here, even a minraise on the turn conveys masssssive strength on this board.

If we check the river intending CR and he checks behind its the same as when we shove the river and he folds.

I dont think he calls a river shove and I dont think a CR works too often here even given river AF - my style is a very aggressive straightforward style so when I'm calling down on the flop/turn its probably scarier than if I was betting at him.

Leading the river for $7.50 seems a good line perhaps?

Its hard for him to get away from getting 3.5-1 and its easy for him to raise mistakenly ?

Bleh.

[nutstoyou]

I think the best line is very player dependent. It also depends on your style of play. If you and the villain have been mixing it up previously, and he has seen you bluff, then a check raise all-in on the turn could be could be good.

If you've played tight, then because of his agression, I would try for a crai on the river.

[kolotoure]

Raise the turn plz. He has 2 pair a lot on this board after he double barrels

[Fetzi]

Sorry for my typos in my first post, was still kind of sleepy.

I think if you lead the River he will more likely call you. But what we want here is to get all our money in...

[Worm75]

Not a huge fan of the c/c on the flop, raising pf I would C-bet this board close to 95% of the time. Basically checking a K high board OOP tells me depending on the opponent, either he hit the nuts and wants to slowplay, or he is giving up.

Hand plays so much easier is we C-bet flop, and get called.

[dlorc]

I think minraising the turn is decent here then shoving river as he cant really fold if he calls the turn.

As played I shoved the river and he folded.

[dlorc]

Due to dynamics I didnt cbet - normally its a cbet I agree but he was going to reraise big here if I lead it and I wouldnt have been able to call for the gutshot.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
Due to dynamics I didnt cbet - normally its a cbet I agree but he was going to reraise big here if I lead it and I wouldnt have been able to call for the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that is the read, then I guess you are ok....but that makes me like the c/c less if we are calling to hit our gutshot/Overcard

Means he is raising with air a pretty good %, and that means we likely don't get paid of when we hit our hand, because raising folds his air....

[bordeel]

just take him to valuetown .. I would bet like 6-7$

[n4rf]

I am pretty 50/50 on betting around 7-8, or getting it AI. I've seen people push AI on the river with crap hands when they're played like this, but a few times I've seen them as monsters since the big bet could come off as being a bluff.

This is villain defendant, hell he could have air and might not call anything. I'd probably bet around $8 here though.

[jjb108]

[ QUOTE ]
Due to dynamics I didnt cbet - normally its a cbet I agree but he was going to reraise big here if I lead it and I wouldnt have been able to call for the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this read, fold flop. IMO, you can't make enough to pay off the times you miss. Seems to me your flop play is -EV.

Lead turn to build pot and make river easier to get AI.

As played and given c-bet comment above, I donk bet/fake block river in hopes that he raises.

[iminurhead]

bet $6 , and hope to induce a shove.

[z28dreams]

I fold flop usually, raise turn.

As played, shove river, he calls with tons of 2 pair here, and your straight is fairly hidden.

If you would have raised the turn it would be easier to get it in, but now you have to go around full pot.