50PL: K7o Steal -> good thin vbet or idiocy?

[Antinome]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

Hero (BTN): $40.05
SB: $72.95
BB: $98.20
UTG: $52.95
CO: $72.05

Pre-Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $3.60</font>, Hero calls $1.85

Flop: ($7.45) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $3.70</font>, Hero calls $3.70

Turn: ($14.85) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.40</font>, BB calls $7.40

River: ($29.65) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $14.80</font>

I have seen this villain call a flop b3bai with MP, but his opponent (SB) had two overs and no draw, so maybe that was situational. He doesn't seem awful.

I'm short because I called down that same opponent (SB) with TP2K when he had aces recently, and am waiting until I calm down to rebuy. I'm not super-tilty, but I usually impose a cool-off period after a big pot where I did something marginal and lost.

[PerDoom]

I would say this is very standard value bet since it was a 3bet pot which changes things a bunch regarding hand ranges. Would nice to be able to know what his vpip/preflop raise % is then we could estimate his hand range down to an even smaller range, but since he made that tiny 3bet preflop, I would assume he isn't going to be 3betting a lot of hands, which eliminates a lot of the hands you are afraid of (88, 87).

Bet and pray he makes a hero call with QQ.

[Antinome]

He was 40/10/2.8 over 47 hands. I had not seen him do a lot of 3betting, so I thought he had a pretty tight range. I made the bet expecting to see QQ, as you suggest, though by the river I'm beating AK,AA too, but I don't see how he has those hands the way he played it.

It is precisely the fact that I'm trying to extract value from such a narrow range of hands- basically just QQ - that makes me think this is thin.

[Cueballmania]

I don't steal with K7o otb against a loose BB very often. Flop is fine. On the turn I bet more so if he calls with KQ, AK, possibly AA, I can shove an 8 or a 3 turn. So, I bet 10-12. River bet is fine.

[Altreg]

I think CRAI river is better option

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
I think CRAI river is better option

[/ QUOTE ]

we're IP.


op, vbet seems std

[Lego05]

Fold pre-flop though.


This is pretty thin. Depends a lot on his 3betting range IMO.

[Antinome]

Results: he has QQ and makes the hero call. Good read.

[kolotoure]

WTF @ this being thin? This is totally standard and I'm betting KQ here

[bozzer]

i think turn is a lot thinner than river which seems standard.

[Antinome]

to be called by what?

It isn't thin because I think I'm ever behind, It's thin because his calling range is so narrow. He doesn't have AA,AK, *maybe* he calls with QQ. JJ, TT he probably folds. KQ he doesn't 3bet. So what else is in his range? low probability random junk. Vbetting we are balancing the profit we make when he *sometimes* calls with QQ against the loss when he has backed into a real hand with random junk. Both are low probability. The majority of the time- 90%+ he is folding to a bet.

KQ is basically the same hand as I have here.