Told you I was running bad

[kolotoure]

Villain is std TAG

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $16.70
MP: $173.95
Hero (CO): $143.05
BTN: $65.90
SB: $18.55
BB: $151.75

Pre-Flop: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 Players)
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BB calls $3.50, MP folds

Turn: ($13.25) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $40</font>, Hero calls $30

River: ($93.25) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $50</font>, Hero ??

[wingchunflush]

I make a crying call

[il_martilo]

Has he ever made any play even slightly resembling a line like this in the past?

You have to betmore on the flop. This board is WAY too draw heavy for a 1/2 pot bet.

Turn bet is good. Then he check raises. Obviously his line screams of JJ/99/68/8T. I suppose we might be looking at J9 as well, but I don't think most TAGs will want to go to war for 300BB in this situation with J9.

This looks like a fold IMO. I can't come up with a single hand that we beat, while 8T, 99, JJ?, and 68 are ALL very reasonable possibilities.

[Hebel]

yikes. that is a super strong line by villain. But I dont think you can really fold here, for the first level reason that you have a set and ppl do weird things

[Jzo19]

your getting great odds ..so imo you cant rly fold here .

[C4LL4W4Y]

kolo, i think the turn is a fold if this guy hasn't been getting out of line. if there's history then it all changes, but standard TAGs don't bluff raise the turn on wet boards all that often. this may be w/t but i don't know how you can profitably continue without much info.

[derosnec]

you beat nothing by a tag that plays the flop and turn this way in this hand.

[gumpzilla]

It's possible I'm being results oriented here, but it seems like this is deep enough that the idea of protecting your stack rather than your hand might be good.

If he's a standard TAG, what is he going to get a lot of money in here with? Standard TAGs are 3betting PF with QQ+, most likely, and probably being more aggressive on the flop with combination draws. They aren't super likely to be check calling two streets with AJ. So, what hands do you think you're getting value from when you bet the turn? Virtually anything that's going to think about calling if your read is good is not in his range. I guess my point is that I think you can make a strong argument for checking behind on the turn.

Anyway, your only chance, really, seems to be that he is running a rather weird bluff - I doubt he's playing J9 for value this way. That's certainly possible - particularly given your goofy flop bet - but I think it's more likely this is 99 or JJ waiting for a safe turn to pump a lot of money into the pot.

[4_2_it]

River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]
River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you can't fold on the river getting 3:1 once you call his turn c/r.

[derosnec]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you can't fold on the river getting 3:1 once you call his turn c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually you can

pot odds aren't some magic #, like 3:1 always = call. it's the % of time you think you will win that matters. given TAG's flop and turn line, you'd have to come up with a range of hands for opponent where OP is good 25% of the time. (yes i like to state the obvious on fridays)

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River is an easy call once you call the turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you can't fold on the river getting 3:1 once you call his turn c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually you can

pot odds aren't some magic #, like 3:1 always = call. it's the % of time you think you will win that matters. given TAG's flop and turn line, you'd have to come up with a range of hands for opponent where OP is good 25% of the time. (yes i like to state the obvious on fridays)

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand, but the 4 doesn't change anything unless he had 63 (nearly impossible). You knew he was going to bet the river after the c/c, c/r, so it doesn't make any sense why you would fold to his river bet if you call his turn c/r.

[gumpzilla]

I think this would be a pretty badass line to take with a big flush draw some of the time; I'm just not sure that a "standard TAG" is going to do so.

[derosnec]

you really gotta look at the action on streets by the type of player to determine what pot odds we need. can't call turn and say "i'll call any bet size on a blank river regardless of pot size."

villain shoves. so about $200 in pot, about $100 to call. we're getting 2:1 to call. always a call because we called turn?

[bsball8806]

Did we call the turn thinking we were ahead or behind, or not knowing?

If we assumed we were ahead, there's no reason to fold. If we thought we were behind and weren't getting proper odds to fill up, then we should have folded on the turn.

However, the gray area is the area which I assume OP is in, where he *could* be ahead, but villain's like is a line of extreme strength, so it's very likely we are behind.

I also understand that just because we called the turn, and a river blank came, that doesn't mean we are automatically calling the river. However, I do think that we are good 25% of the time here. If we were 1000 bb's deep, and he shoved, this would be an obvious fold.

I think what I'm trying to say is that we called his c/r on the turn, fully expecting him to bet again on the river. The river is a blank, meaning neither our hand nor his could have improved (no flush draw, no higher straight, etc). He has bet a relatively small amount, giving us excellent odds to call. Our hand might even be a little underrepresented at this point, since we flat called his turn c/r.

[derosnec]

ok, pot odds aside, what i think is interesting about this hand is what villain should do on the river.

assume we are villain, we have a straight or set. what is the most +EV river line against a TAG given the way the hand developed?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

assume we are villain, we have a straight or set. what is the most +EV river line against a TAG given the way the hand developed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Straight: shove.

Set: probably shove, too.

In order for anything else to work your opponent needs to think you were bluffing the turn. But if they're giving you credit for that, they probably aren't folding to your shoves.

[matrix]

No TAG is going to be folding the river if they called the turn raise from Villains POV. (or probably shouldn't be)

Just valueshove river with your straight set as Villain and get well paid.

As Hero I don't understand what has changed on the river that makes us think twice about folding.

We called the raise on the turn getting 2:1 odds + a bunch of implieds - the river is a brick - nothing has changed and now we're getting better odds just without a boat/quad redraw.

We flopped bottom set - if the river pairs the board we wouldn't think much about calling cos then we beat the straight. We'd still get stacked by a flopped set tho.

I call here but I'm not super happy about it - we beat 555 and 2pairs and bluffs - it depends on the MP player - if we fold here and can use our position in later hands to stack MP we'll drag a 400bb pot - if we get stacked here that would only be a 200bb pot. If MP is the kind of player I am not going to win a big pot from without a nuts v 2nd nuts type of hand I am more inclined to call and take my chances vs this villain here and now.

I hate calling a big turn raise and then folding to a brick on the river - 1/3 of our stack is in this pot when we call the turn raise so we ought to already have a plan for teh river before calling the turn.