KK is 3bet allin to CB

[squidladder]

No reads on villain only 15 hands and haven't seen him do anything bad.
Would he play QJ or a set this way or is a nut flush draw the most likley hand

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $50
UTG+1: $136.40
CO: $19.20
Button: $34.55
Hero: $54.90
BB: $92.55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/spade.gif
UTG (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2.25</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $6</font>, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: J/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ($13, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in $130.4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???

[youngmachetes]

i 3-bet bigger pf. to answer your question, he does play sets/2pair/nfd like this i would imagine. give him a range of likely hands that he calls 3bets w/. QQ/JJ are two strong candidates.


edited bc i misread HH.
also, what are hero's stats?

[squidladder]

only 15 hands like 15/10

[patrick10]

unfortunate there are no reads but lets see.
I don't think you can say that a nut FD is the most likely hand.


He opens PF and calls your 3 bet, so if villain is good/ tight, I would put his range at:
TT-QQ; AA; AQ; AK

in which case, you are

Hand 0: 56.116% 56.00% 00.12% 21066 45.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 43.884% 43.76% 00.12% 16464 45.00 { AA, QQ-TT, AQs+, AQo+ }

unless i screwed up the stoving, you have an equity edge and should CALL

When we widen his FLOP range to 77- QQ; AA; AQ; AK; ;KQdd; QJs; KJs; AdXd, your equity actually increases a bit to 59%

SO i think a CALL is in order here pretty much ALWAYS, even if it does feel very much like a set. The exceptions i think would be reads on how he plays big hands/ big draws or if you are playing a super nit.

I think hands like TT-QQ and even AA are MUCH more likely to be his hands then QJ after the PF action. Though against QJ you actually aren't doing too badly with alot of 2 pair outs. The only 1 pair hands he has would probably include pair+ draw hands so it IS quite close, but i think given you have committed 1/3 of your stack, you should commit and you will win enough from the times your hand stands up.

[YesMehFriend]

3bet pre should be larger, ~8.
If he does this only with sets (77/jj/QQ), 2p or AQ you get the odds to call. Add now maybe KQ or even more hands since he's virtually unknown (I've seen ppl do this with AK ...).


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: Qd 7d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.164% 36.87% 01.29% 13507 472.50 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 61.836% 60.55% 01.29% 22178 472.50 { JJ+, 77, AQs, QJs, AQo, QJo }

[patrick10]

yeah woops made his flop range way too wide but i think its still call

yeah woops made his flop range way too wide but i think its still call

edit. yehs: i dont think we can include 2 pair hands Q7/ J7 that is stretching it according to PF i think.

i stoved basically the worst hands we can be up against,

AA,QQ-JJ,77,AdKd,AQs,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,QJs,Td9d,QJo

We are a 72- 28 (2.5 :1) DOG

and we need to call ~$37 to win ~$110 so its pretty close but a call. This was the worst case hands we are up against.

[Spurious]

I think we have to add KQ, AK diamonds, T9 diamonds

and yes i stack off here

[meleader2]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we have to add KQ, AK diamonds, T9 diamonds

and yes i stack off here

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that's horrible. no reads. UTG raiser. and lol at making &gt; pot 3bet preflop, wtf? is that going to make QQ not call?

[Spurious]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we have to add KQ, AK diamonds, T9 diamonds

and yes i stack off here

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that's horrible. no reads. UTG raiser. and lol at making &gt; pot 3bet preflop, wtf? is that going to make QQ not call?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG raiser might raise because someone posted...

[jackatwork]

I think this is a standard, but high variance spot to stick your money in on. Without having pokerstove at the office, my gut feeling is that overall you're going to be right around a coinflip with his range, which is going to include a lot of draws. You're getting a good enough overlay to go for it. I would have 3bet bigger preflop though, don't give odds to call with a small pair for set value.

[jackatwork]

[ QUOTE ]
and lol at making &gt; pot 3bet preflop, wtf? is that going to make QQ not call?

[/ QUOTE ]Of course QQ is going to call if we make a larger 3bet preflop, that's sort of the point. If villain is facing a bet of $4 (I think it was?) then he's basically getting odds to call for set value. He's going to call with thsoe smaller pairs most of the time for 6 or 7 as well, but now he's making a mistake.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we have to add KQ, AK diamonds, T9 diamonds

and yes i stack off here

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that's horrible. no reads. UTG raiser. and lol at making &gt; pot 3bet preflop, wtf? is that going to make QQ not call?

[/ QUOTE ]

A raise to 7 would have been a pot sized raise actually (actually no...missed the UTG poster...pot sized raised would have been to $7.50.)

And no it won't make QQ not call....it will make QQ put in more money with 20% equity against you....and it will make all those other hands that KK is crushing put in more money as a big dog. I woulda raised to $8 pre-flop most likely...certainly no less than $7.50


And the flop is a really easy call. Hero is getting 2 to 1 so only needs 33% equity:


Even against a really tight range of AA,QQ,JJ,AQs,and 4 out of 9 AQo combos hero has greater than 33% equity:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18,810 games 0.005 secs 3,762,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Qd 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.784% 35.78% 00.00% 6731 0.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 64.216% 64.22% 00.00% 12079 0.00 { AA, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, AcQc, AhQh, AsQs, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQh }

[Lego05]

Oh also I think the flop bet is bigger than necessary. Most of the time in 3bet pots a 2/3 cbet is fine....and if you just increase the bet size with good hands that can be noticed. And you would still get all-in easily by betting like $9 on the flop.

[matrix]

beat his chips into the pot with your SNAP call.

Your flop bet is too big and your preflop raise is too small.

~$8.50 preflop - and bet 1/2 - 2/3 at the very most on the flop.

[Altreg]

insta call