NL50: Interesting hand in position against UTG NIT

[Aquadougs]

UTG: 12/7,5/2 (134). Cbet: 50%


Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

MP: $143.75
Hero (CO): $88.18
BTN: $220.42
SB: $53.43
BB: $61.67
UTG: $50

Pre-Flop: K/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $3</font>, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10.75) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $15</font>, Hero calls $7.50

River: ($40.75) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $30 and is All-In</font>


How often doesnt he have this bettingpattern with AK?

[DLKeeper1]

His range is pretty small considering he's an uber-nit raising UTG. Minraise on turn scares me, and personally I don't see someone this nitty with an aggression factor of 2 min-raising with TPTK that often. You're ahead of most of his range here, but he is indicating serious strength.

[Paul Thomson]

i'm not sure if this is bad. but i might fold preflop even though it's suited. his utg range has to be really tight and i wouldn't be comfortable with making moves postflop. i'm sure this is really nitty and there's probably nothing wrong with calling preflop when it's suited and we're in position. but i don't think it's a huge mistake to fold preflop. but whatever, preflop isn't my strong point.

the river was the worse possible card for u. and ur really only splitting at best. so it looks like a fold.

[ICMoney]

Folding PF and calling river are both bad.

[Aquadougs]

Would calling with AQs preflop been terrible?

[mickb70]

[ QUOTE ]
Would calling with AQs preflop been terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. min-raising turn with AQ might be though.

[NeverScurred]

Against this player raising from UTG, I'd call with AQs in position but fold it if I were in the blinds.

[billip62]

With the nit's range 88 is the only real possible holding with an 8 which is really improbable. It has to be AK or AQ given the way the hand played out and judging by the strength of his turn play I'd lean to AK.

AA is another possibility, but I tend not put much weight in the case A hitting the flop.

Anyway I stoved it with a bias away from AQ:


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10 games 0.005 secs 2,000 games/sec

Board: 8c 8s Ad 6s Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.000% 00.00% 30.00% 0 3.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 70.000% 40.00% 30.00% 4 3.00 { AA, 88, AKs, AcQc, AdQd, AhQh, AKo, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdQc, AdQh, AhQc }

Doesn't look like the odds are good enough to call.

[Aquadougs]

I think you could cut down a few AQ combinations IMO

[NeverScurred]

Just using AQs for the stove analysis should work. That's probably pretty close to accurate.

[The Reese]

This is a very interesting hand. PF seems fine and flop is good. I get more agro in these type situations with the min raised turn. A person this tight has AK, AQ,and AA and large portion of the time. Obv 88 is simply a cooler and can be given no consideration. I am not sure if this is optimal but I probably shove the turn after his c/r most of the time. Is this a leak in my game? Meh

[Altreg]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding PF and calling river are both bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Aquadougs]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very interesting hand. PF seems fine and flop is good. I get more agro in these type situations with the min raised turn. A person this tight has AK, AQ,and AA and large portion of the time. Obv 88 is simply a cooler and can be given no consideration. I am not sure if this is optimal but I probably shove the turn after his c/r most of the time. Is this a leak in my game? Meh

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think thats his range (only suited AQ's), and he folds AQ to push, then the EV is 2,78. I think a call would be better because he have only a 3 outer draw to 2 of his combinations. Then you could reevaluate the river.