can I fold here with AA on the flop?

[bsball8806]

Don't know why the hand history isn't converting, but w/e.

Reads: Villain over about 40 hands appears to be a solid TAG.

5 handed, .05/.1 blinds, I have $11.30, Villain covers.

I raise UTG with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif to $0.40.
BTN calls, Villain calls from the SB

Pot is $1.30
Flop is 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif 10/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain leads out for $1.30, I reraise to $5.50, he shoves.

Can I find a fold?

[Fulzgold]

you're definitely behind here. yes you can fold.

also, if you are ahead, your equity isnt that strong.

[Paul Thomson]

no

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
you're definitely behind here. yes you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

we're ahead of KQ, TJ, and 87

[mickb70]

I can't find a call.

[Paul Thomson]

we only need to be good here 25% of the time to call.

[mickb70]

[ QUOTE ]
we only need to be good here 25% of the time to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.671% 23.50% 00.17% 6514 47.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 76.329% 76.16% 00.17% 21111 47.50 { TT-99, AKs, QJs, AKo, QJo }

Salient point and i make it 5.4 more into 22.7 pot so need 23.78 which seems to make this close. I've already folded but I was prob wrong on closer inspection.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we only need to be good here 25% of the time to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.671% 23.50% 00.17% 6514 47.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 76.329% 76.16% 00.17% 21111 47.50 { TT-99, AKs, QJs, AKo, QJo }

Salient point and i make it 5.4 more into 22.7 pot so need 23.78 which seems to make this close. I've already folded but I was prob wrong on closer inspection.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice try. put in TJ and 9T and KQ

[Fulzgold]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're definitely behind here. yes you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

we're ahead of KQ, TJ, and 87

[/ QUOTE ]

villian appears to be a solid TAG. Easy fold.

[mickb70]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we only need to be good here 25% of the time to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.671% 23.50% 00.17% 6514 47.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 76.329% 76.16% 00.17% 21111 47.50 { TT-99, AKs, QJs, AKo, QJo }

Salient point and i make it 5.4 more into 22.7 pot so need 23.78 which seems to make this close. I've already folded but I was prob wrong on closer inspection.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice try. put in TJ and 9T and QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I just put in the certainies to get us enough equity to call. TJ 9T maybe even 89 are just gravy. QJ is already there BTW.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're definitely behind here. yes you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

we're ahead of KQ, TJ, and 87

[/ QUOTE ]

villian appears to be a solid TAG. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

give me a range for villain?

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we only need to be good here 25% of the time to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.671% 23.50% 00.17% 6514 47.50 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 76.329% 76.16% 00.17% 21111 47.50 { TT-99, AKs, QJs, AKo, QJo }

Salient point and i make it 5.4 more into 22.7 pot so need 23.78 which seems to make this close. I've already folded but I was prob wrong on closer inspection.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice try. put in TJ and 9T and QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I just put in the certainies to get us enough equity to call. TJ 9T maybe even 89 are just gravy. QJ is already there BTW.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry i meant KQ...i edited. were behind 9T fwiw

[NeverScurred]

It's close, but I think this is a call. I think we can somewhat discount AK from his ranges as I think a "solid tag" would reraise that preflop, but if he does this with KQ you have enough equity to call.

[Fulzgold]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you're definitely behind here. yes you can fold.

[/ QUOTE ]



villian appears to be a solid TAG. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

give me a range for villain?

[/ QUOTE ]
we're ahead of KQ, TJ, and 87

[/ QUOTE ]
two pair or better. pair and a gutshot 3 bet shoves flop? gimme a break. KQ does this to extreme heat? no f'n way.
99, 10 10, 9 10s, QJs all we beat here is a random bluff. good fold.

[bsball8806]

I called, he flipped over 99 for bottom set. Once again, I proved to be the bigger donk

[Fulzgold]

once u threebet him its tough to fold.

[GAH3]

Seems like this is a good fold to make if you're right about the TAG label, and if you're image is similar. I don't think he'd push like that with less than a set. Then there's the likelihood of the QJ for the straight. Basically, I think you have to go with your read on the player and lay it down.

[derosnec]

i'd call. drawy flop. slightly connected flop but his line can be alot of hands you're ahead of once you raise, you have like what over 1/2 your stack in in a hand where villain's line isn't very strong and were he can have alot of worse hands.

[NeverScurred]

The real question is if he plays KQ this way. If he does, you have enough equity to call. If not, this is a fold.

[The Reese]

I don't know if I could find a fold in this size pot and the majority of players at this level won't lead QJ here. I really can't find a fold with this line.

[ICMoney]

You just raised over half your stack and you want to fold to shove?

Why not call down for the $5.5 or raise smaller?
Don't think either of these are good options, but better than folding.

If I raise like you did I already made my decision to go with the hand. Call.