Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

[Hebel]

I played this hand tonight at nl25

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter (http://www.learnhowtoplaypokerfree.com/convert/convert.cgi) Courtesy of PokerZion.com (http://PokerZion.com)

Button ($24.90)
Hero ($29.20)
BB ($21.45)
UTG ($25.80)
MP ($48.85)
CO ($12.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $10.45 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $7.45.

Turn: ($25.15) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>
.

River: ($25.15) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $25.15

Lets break this hand down step by step. Assume that villain is unknown, but you have seen him limp into the pot with marginal hands and view him as loose. His short stack contributes to the idea that he isnt very good.

Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.
Pre-flop

Wins Ties Equity
60.16% 0.51% 60.67% ( TcTs )
38.82% 0.51% 39.33% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )



When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

So a Cbet is in order.

Once villain shoves, we must tighten his range further. Assume villain is pushing any Q, overs with a flush draw, a made straight with 10j (left out before for simplicities sake), A9, and occasionally a small pair as a bluff. Against this range, we still have 40% equity

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
37.96% 2.14% 40.10% ( TcTs )
57.76% 2.14% 59.90% ( AcKc, AcJc, QT+, QQ, 88, 99, TJ, 66, A9 )

This is because even against sets and a Q, we still have about a 25% chance of sucking out (a 10, J, and possibly running clubs). Additionally, we may be ahead if villain is occasionally bluffing or shoving a worse hand or draw. Given the pot odds of 2.5:1, what looks like a clear fold is actually a call.

[bsball8806]

I don't see him doing this with either A9 or as a bluff, given that you 3bet him preflop, then led out a flop that he knew you'd have to call if he raised you.

[The Reese]

I do like the analysis as it pertains to equity but why are rationalizing giving away money. He almost never is bluffing with underpairs or A9 here.

[kimos123]

im folding this.
QJ is a very likly hand IMO.

[NeverScurred]

Only the last equity calc is relevant, and it's flawed because I think the hand range you assigned to him is incorrect. It seems from the preflop and initial flop analysis that you assume people call bets with 100% of their ranges, which isn't the case.

[winnnar]

I think you played this well PF with the 3-bet and the bet on the flop. However, When these kind of donks shove on top of us here after we've shown this much strength, it is seldomly a draw and he probably has us beat. You are getting a good price to call, but just know that you are very likely to be behind. I would probably fold here.

[winnnar]

Not to hijack your thread, but here is a hand I recently played that is a similar situation. Like you, I decided to call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($25)
UTG ($24.85)
Button ($16.75)
SB ($28.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $1</font>, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.90, Hero raises to $4</font>, UTG folds, Button calls $3, SB calls $3.

Flop: ($13) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/spade.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/diamond.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif (3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero bets $8</font>, Button raises to $12.75</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $4.75.

Turn: ($38.50) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/heart.gif (2 players)</font>

River: ($38.50) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif (2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $38.50

[mickb70]

If you think he's loose with $12 effective stacks I like 3-bet to $3 which makes the hand play easier. We can c-bet to $4-$5 then and call is automatic. As played it leaves us this decision which we quite rightly dont like. I'm happy with a call or fold as played given possible redraws if behind although reads could swing this decision massively.

[mickb70]

What am i missing? How are these hands similar?

[winnnar]

well OP's was HU. other than that...3 way pot...hero shows strength PF and fl. Donkish villain shoves and we are pretty priced in to call.

[Hebel]

*** FLOP *** [8c Qh 9c]
Hero bets $3
Villain raises to $10.45, and is all in
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero calls $7.45
Villain shows [6s 6h]
Hero shows [Tc Td]
*** TURN *** [8c Qh 9c] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [8c Qh 9c 5s] [4s]
Villain shows a pair of Sixes
Hero shows a pair of Tens
Hero wins the pot ($23.90) with a pair of Tens
Villain is sitting out

The point of this post was to show that people dont always have monsters. You have to seriously evaluate a villains hand over a wide possible range and not just say that "hes never bluffing with underpairs" or something along those lines.

[n4rf]

I really think it's *very tough to just put somebody on a hand like you did, an underpair. I honestly would not expect to be ahead when this is made. While you DO have 60% equity, this all changes when he pushes back at you.

I see this happening mainly with a pair and straight draw, like QJ, or even J9 (it's possible).

Vs 9/10 opponents I don't expect to necessarily have the best hand.


I think this hand was very results-oriented because I've done some similar plays and "good calls" if you like to call them that, but I just see myself as making a decent call and being lucky... if you were shown QJ or even Q10, I don't think you would be too surprised, since I know shortstacks love to push with top pair alllll the time.

[Hebel]

The entire point of this post was to show that this was not a results oriented call. After putting villain on a reasonable pushing range, most of which has me beat, I believe that I have demonstrated decent enough equity to make the call given the pot odds.

[Monster207]

I think Hebel's right in this, primarily because of the stack sizes. Shorties range still contains enough draws even after the 3bet to makes this a call given the pot odds to equity. Its really not results oriented either, its more just a nice example of estimating your equity in a pot and then comparing it to the pot odds.

[solinar]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed thinking. You can't base your equity on his current range, you have to base it on the range he will call your 3bet with. If he only calls 3-bets with AA, then you should never 3bet for value, even though you have 61% equity vs his raising range.

[wingchunflush]

Hmmm I dont see how you can rag on my hand so much and then justify calling all your money off in this spot.

[Monster207]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is flawed thinking. You can't base your equity on his current range, you have to base it on the range he will call your 3bet with. If he only calls 3-bets with AA, then you should never 3bet for value, even though you have 61% equity vs his raising range.

[/ QUOTE ]

He tightens villains range once he smooth calls the 3bet.. throughout the entire rest of the post he continually tightens the range of villain and bases his equity on the range relative to the newest information. You can disagree with the ranges he assigned to villain but its tough to say he is basing his equity on his initial raising range.... cause he clearly isn't.


When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

[jk1986]

3bet to a proper size oop plzkthnx

[wingchunflush]

I dont think once he shoves that we can honestly include the full range that everyone is putting him on. Sure he could be bluffing here but I think we see a Q here very often....too often infact to make a call profitable here. I dont think you can weigh his entire range equally. Sure the lower pocket pairs and A8 and A9 are in his range but I dont think that can be weighed as heavily as QT plus and the hand range that was assigned to the villian didnt include two pair hands and straight draw hands. He is most likely not a great player I dont think that 89 8q 9q and draws like t7 and 67 are too far out of his range. I dont think you would have posted this hand if you had lost.

[mrpotto]

In my opinion, you are ahead in these situations more often than not to make always calling EV+. That being said, here is a hand that does not support that and very similar to your situation......

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.15
CO: $42
Button: $27.80
SB: $7.90
hero: $24.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $2.25</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $5.65</font>, hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


River: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


Results:
Final pot: $15.8
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed Ts Qs</font>
<font color="#ffffff">hero showed Jc Jh</font>

[Hebel]

I apologize for including results too early in this thread. If you would like to disagree with my analysis, please revise villains range and show the math that you did making the call incorrect.

[C4LL4W4Y]

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, you are ahead in these situations more often than not to make always calling EV+. That being said, here is a hand that does not support that and very similar to your situation......

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter (http://www.neildewhurst.com/hand-converter)

Stack sizes:
UTG: $31.15
CO: $42
Button: $27.80
SB: $7.90
hero: $24.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises to $2.25</font>, SB calls.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif ($4.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB is all-in $5.65</font>, hero calls.

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/club.gif ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


River: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif ($15.8, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $15.8)


Results:
Final pot: $15.8
<font color="#ffffff">SB showed Ts Qs</font>
<font color="#ffffff">hero showed Jc Jh</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

this hand is completely different, in that you have position and good equity..

[C4LL4W4Y]

i don't have time to do the math or go super in depth, but here's my quick analysis:

it's alright just assume that a bad player's minraising range includes all pairs, some meh Q + K's, and raggedy A's, as well as some bigger A's and K's. the real mistake of your hand, however, is in your calculation of his 3b calling range. when he calls the minraise, you have to tighten some of the BAD hands out of there as well as the good hands (and i'm kind of wary to remove KK and AA, because bad players at 25nl LOVE to slowplay big hands).

also, just because you have a certain amount of equity against a villain, doesn't mean you should always cbet - especially when OOP vs. a bad player. if you think he's going to shove/call light on a wet board like this, then by all means go ahead and bet/call. but i don't think you have enough information to make that decision.

also, your range for villains shove is way too wide. i think it's a marginal call once you get shipped, but no way do you have 40% equity on that board.