Too aggressive with a set?

[derosnec]

villain is 54/15/1


didn't want river card to kill action


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($50.55)
Hero ($72.50)
SB ($58.45)
BB ($57.25)
UTG ($60.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($6.50) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.5</font>, MP folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8.25</font>, SB calls $6.75.

Turn: ($23) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $21.25</font>, SB folds.

[ajmargarine]

Meh. Maybe just a hair too big of a turn raise. Maybe keep it in the $18-$20 range, but they usually don't fold so, tough break.

[kaz2107]

meh... this is a pretty lame spot.

altho no river really kills action. there isnt a fd and only one over that can hit so i wouldnt b worried about killed action.

i would b worried about being sucked out on (which in this spot i think we r fine) and also being able to get it all in very easily. i prolly make it like 10ish so a river shove is so easy then and it basically forces him to call a turn bet thus commiting him to the pot for his stack

[corsakh]

Any raise shuts them down. But thanks the board is dry and you can call hoping he will catch up or do something stupid on the river.

[Waingro]

He probably had 96o or something and you sold him the idea that you had a K. It happens. If he folded a K it must have been for some other reason (gf left him, he got bad beated when he limped AA etc). It is outside of your control.

[winnnar]

I think we lose a lot of value here by raising near pot on the turn. But he called that big raise on the flop, so we gotta assume hes got a weaker holding that he's willing to play. Guess not. Better luck next time.

[thac]

I like a raise to 13, it sets up an easy river push.

[patrick10]

ok well looking at PF and flop, villain raises with 15% so we can include pairs + AK KQ KJs QJs and probably like AJs and ATs in his raise range.

He leads out super weak, but given his stats of 54/15 he is probably quite fishy. He calls your raise which is a good size, which i think SHOULD narrow his range down to like AK KQ KJs,AA, QQ, JJ, (KK, 66 - def possible at this stage).

He leads out again on the turn, again super weak. I think there are probably 3 basic scenarios for this.

1) Villain is on a draw and is putting out a cheap blocking bet in the hopes you just call. Quite common usually; but on this board very unlikely given the action. The only reasonable hands which may fit into this category for villain would be the diamond combinations of the next category.

2) Weaker made hands like TPGK+ and even the underpairs QQ and JJ which he doesnt want to give up. I think this is the most likely group and includes: AK, KQ, KJ, QQ, JJ

3) Super strong hands. KK, 66 have you screwed and some villains will bet out very weak to induce a raise. I could also include AA in this category because even though you have him crushed with a set, MOST villains will think AA is the nuts on such a dry board and may try to play it tricky.

I may have rambled, so cliff notes: Villain will often turn up with KQ, KJ, QQ, JJ here. I think AK is calling alot.
Turn raise may be slightly too big- maybe $15- $18 would have been better

[patrick10]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably had 96o or something and you sold him the idea that you had a K. It happens. If he folded a K it must have been for some other reason (gf left him, he got bad beated when he limped AA etc). It is outside of your control.

[/ QUOTE ]

just becasue villain has VPIP 50%, how is 96o or similar hands in his raising range of 15% ?

[ama0330]

You have to raise, but yeah maybe a little smaller - splitting hairs tho afaic.

[vixticator]

Raise small enough that you don't take away the opportunity for them to bluff shove at some point. On flop and turn. There are no draws. You should have best hand like 95% of the time. I'd raise flop to about $7 and turn to $18 because you can still shove river if calls down, plus it gives the illusion of FE to an opponent.

[MMa7]

Better recap the action Patrick, because the villian was not the preflop raiser.

[patrick10]

[ QUOTE ]
Better recap the action Patrick, because the villian was not the preflop raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are correct, ty.

But i still think waingro may have been off in putting complete trash hands in SBs range, when he called the PF raise, DONKED THE FLOP, called a raise, and lead out the turn again.

that is pretty unrealistic don't you think?