NL25 Queens on low board [Archive] - Two Plus Two Newer Archives

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Poker monkey

11-29-2007, 12:29 AM

Standard? Button is 18/10/3.2

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP3 ($35.25)
CO ($18.80)
Button ($28.15)
SB ($10.35)
BB ($4.50)
UTG ($4.25)
UTG+1 ($9.75)
Hero ($59.45)
MP2 ($20.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, Button calls $0.85, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.05) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, Button calls $1.75.

Turn: ($5.55) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button calls $5.

River: ($15.55) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $51.85 (All-In) (Button has $20.55 left)

slush420

11-29-2007, 12:33 AM

Post in Full Ring next time. I check/call river or sometimes CRAI on river. Villain obv likes his hand here and there's a much wider range of hands he'll bet with on the river that we beat than hands he'll call a shove on the river with.

piebear

11-29-2007, 12:35 AM

I play it exactly the same. Might just go for 1/2 pot on the river without a pretty good read he was a station, but meh I still like it. NH

piebear

11-29-2007, 12:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Post in Full Ring next time. I check/call river or sometimes CRAI on river. Villain obv likes his hand here and there's a much wider range of hands he'll bet with on the river that we beat than hands he'll call a shove on the river with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. I think the villain is pretty desperate to see a showdown with 77-99, possibly lower pairs, JT-AT etc.. doesn't look to me like he has us beat at all, and he would almost certainly check behind.

slush420

11-29-2007, 12:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Post in Full Ring next time. I check/call river or sometimes CRAI on river. Villain obv likes his hand here and there's a much wider range of hands he'll bet with on the river that we beat than hands he'll call a shove on the river with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree. I think the villain is pretty desperate to see a showdown with 77-99, possibly lower pairs, JT-AT etc.. doesn't look to me like he has us beat at all, and he would almost certainly check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

with an AF of 3.2 I am sure we will get raised on the flop if he holds 77-99 since there would be a lot of scare cards to him.

eastern motors

11-29-2007, 12:47 AM

It looks kind of fishy to me. A 3.2 aggression factor is pretty high.

I would C/C the river. He could bluff with KJ or something but I don't think he is calling a shove with a hand we can beat.

Poker monkey

11-29-2007, 01:09 AM

I think we need to bet at least something for value on this river. There aren't that many draws out - 76 is the only one, (and I'm not sure that calls a PSB on the turn), and that will often give up on the river anyway. His hand looks more like a middle pair to me. The question is, what's the most +EV bet size on the river for me? Also can we ever fold if we bet half-pot on the river and get raised? Does being able to fold the times we're beat add to our EV?

il_martilo

11-29-2007, 01:15 AM

River bet is very very bad IMO. Nothing you beat calls your bet if villian has 1/2 a brain, which it looks like he does.

Bet 1/2 pot and let him pay you off with JJ/99

piebear

11-29-2007, 01:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
River bet is very very bad IMO. Nothing you beat calls your bet if villian has 1/2 a brain, which it looks like he does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ive seen AK played like this enough to make that call, depending on stats/reads. His shove looks desperate enough to induce 66-99 to call.

And villain does not hold JJ lol