Nl50 AA on low board facing b/3b

[orlov]

Villain is 20/15/2 over 200 datamined hands, I just sat down an orbit ago.

Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50BB (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

Button ($83.93)
SB ($61.25)
BB ($42.35)
MP3 ($57.80)
CO ($50.00) (Hero)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to 2.0</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>,

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif ( $4.5 )
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2.50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to 8.0</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to 20.5</font>, Hero?

[bsball8806]

suits?

[simonpoker]

Get it in lots of hands that you beat.

[orlov]

[ QUOTE ]
suits?

[/ QUOTE ]
mh hand history jsut updated 10minutes after my disconnect, suits are out there now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

@simon
well he obviously wants to play for stacks, does an unknown tag do this with 88-qq(assuming a narrow 3bet range here)?

[ceavou22]

Hero shoves

[ceavou22]

I've seen similar stat villains have TT/99 here and getting it in. Of course this is a set some of the time.

[bsball8806]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

[Profish2285]

I think you can take alot of those overpairs out of villains range. He looks taggy and I dont see many tags, or many players at all for that matter playing 99 like this. Tbh, this looks like a set or two pair alot from this type of player. I dont think its terrible here to fold to his 3b.

[simonpoker]

[ QUOTE ]
well he obviously wants to play for stacks, does an unknown tag do this with 88-qq(assuming a narrow 3bet range here)?

[/ QUOTE ]

no need to assume his three betting range is narrow and he isn't a nit either, I think its -EV to give him credit for set here everytime

[jack492505]

yea I probably push here. Going to see lots of sets but I think you see enough overpairs to get it in.

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
no need to assume his three betting range is narrow and he isn't a nit either, I think its -EV to give him credit for set here everytime.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do yourself a favor and just assume everyone has a narrow 3b range post flop unless theyre a maniac or show you they highly overvalue hands. Just understand that if he was to c/r us I would shove over him as his range is still wide enough. But a b/3b is a significantly stronger line ime.

[bsball8806]

If we take like 77,88,99 out of the stove, our equity falls to the point where a fold is correct.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

[simonpoker]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.414% 58.96% 01.45% 17511 432.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 39.586% 38.13% 01.45% 11325 432.00 { QcQh, QcQs, QdQs, JJ-TT, 66-33 }


This is the most narrow range you can probably put him on and then its really close.

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean close as in calling, I misspoke and meant close as to who was ahead.

Looking back, I don't really see what he's raising you with here that we're good against, I think I'd fold after consideration

[orlov]

SO basically if he has an overpair here 40% of the time a shove is breakeven?

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.942% 51.73% 01.21% 33801 791.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 47.058% 45.85% 01.21% 29957 791.00 { 99-33, 64s+, 54s, 64o+, 54o }

Close, but looks like a shove.

This isn't close at all if you think this is an accurate range. It's a clear push, we only need 40% equity to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is I really dont think that range is accurate at all. I cant even think of one player in the past 20k hands to play 99 like this, let alone someone with tag stats. Assuming he does this with 44, which is alot more likely than 88 imo, its still a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.001 secs 16,830,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.327% 29.00% 01.33% 4881 223.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 69.673% 68.35% 01.33% 11503 223.00 { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 5d5s, 44, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 6d5d, 6h5h }


---

[orlov]

Mh if he only does this with one overpair it would be breakeven.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.303% 40.69% 01.62% 6042 240.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 57.697% 56.08% 01.62% 8328 240.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33 }

[Profish2285]

You dont think JJ should be heavily discounted as it probably will 3b pf? Also in that range, youre then including 44, I really think its one or the other, either one overpair or 44 and what Im saying is 44 is much more likely than an overpair.

[orlov]

Ya ofc, but then just replace JJ with TT, as long as he does with one kind of overpair itd be breakeven shove.

Also JJ might not necessarily 3bet here as I raised UTG.

[Profish2285]

Take out 44 from there then and stove it just so you have an idea what the equity would look like if this is TT often enough. What Im getting at is that very few villains will take this line with an overpair. I really dont think this villain is one of those who would do this with a pair. Look at his AF, its not very high by any means, and his vpip and pfr are fairly conservative. If this guy has TT I would be shocked.

[orlov]

44 isnt in stove in my post, but admittedly the more i think about it the more this line looks like a set, still if he does this with an overpair its breakeven. Just such a marginal spot :S.

[Profish2285]

Sorry I misread it, but you should add in 56. Someone with a vpip of 20 is still conservative but likes to play sc's.

I am making his range a little wider and now adding in 54 as well since if we think he could do this with 44, he could also with 54.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,800 games 0.001 secs 19,800,000 games/sec

Board: 5s 6c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.626% 32.32% 01.31% 6399 259.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 66.374% 65.07% 01.31% 12883 259.00 { 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 5c5d, 5c5h, 5d5h, 44, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 6d5d, 6h5h, 5c4c, 5d4d, 5h4h }


---

[orlov]

But he called in the sb so he will be oop, if we assume he isnt positionally aware hes also more prone to go spazztarded with Overpairs id guess.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.452% 38.84% 01.61% 6537 271.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 59.548% 57.94% 01.61% 9751 271.00 { JJ, 66-55, 33, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6h5h }


THis would make it 40% equity and thus breakeven?

[ceavou22]

I have seen TT in this spot 3 times in the last week (2/3 were vs TAG). I think 99/88 are rarer but I've seen 99 take this line once that I can remember.

I agree JJ will most likely 3b PF but put yourself in villains shoes w TT. Say hero is unkown to villain he may reason that hero has 77-99 often enough for him to play TT for stacks on the flop.

[orlov]

Thanks for the feedback guys, im off to bed now, will post results tmrw(altough they dont really matter /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

[Profish2285]

No, I really wouldnt convince myself I should play for stacks here with TT unless hero seems like an idiot to me.

[Check_The_Nuts]

why would you raise the flop if at best case your like 40% equity versus a push range. Pretty sure those were the best numbers given so far (and they seemed incorrect to me).

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
why would you raise the flop if at best case your like 40% equity versus a push range. Pretty sure those were the best numbers given so far (and they seemed incorrect to me).

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed about shoving here, very incorrect. What do you think would be more accurate numbers since Im guessing you think Im giving too much credit to villain here.

[Worm75]

grunch

taggy player with low af 3bets me here, I don't have a problem with dumping the hand. I probably call here, but I have a problem folding..... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

If i call flop I am probably getting it in on safe turn, but not liking it.....

I don't like shoving here, flop is fairly dry and guys with this low AF don't go ballistic like this generally on a whim vs and unknown.

Also, this looks like standard donk/3bet line from a taggish player.

[john voight]

imo a 20/15 wouldn't smooth PF w/ 99ish type of hand and then play it this fast postflop

[Check_The_Nuts]

Pro,

I agree with your numbers. Didn't realize the loosest was a 52% favourite which would make the play OK. But thats really best case scenario your that much of a favourite against his range.

[Profish2285]

Yea thats really my point. All of a sudden someone with a low AF and taggish stats is going nuts with 99 here? Come on....

[orlov]

Villain had 55 btw. Oh and strangely enough my pokertracker only has 5 hands on villain, altough i could have sworn pahud showed me taggish stats for him over a decent sample, mayb some kind of bug.