NL25 - AK hits vs unknown

[reemas]

PT shows opponent as 18.5/7/.93 after 70 hands, but at the time he was less known (maybe 25 hands in).

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

UTG: $24.90
Hero (CO): $25.90
BTN: $26.55
SB: $25.35
BB: $14.05

Pre-Flop: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) A/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.10) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero ???</font>

I'm lost now.

[doppelganger]

Too small to fold here. I call and see what the river looks like. Since we're in position we have the option of choosing to call or fold the river, depending on how big he makes it. If he makes another little baby bet I think we have odds to call, but if it's big I think it's a fold.

[reemas]

how about raising?

[NeverScurred]

I'm not sure what this is about; he's either baiting you to raise him or trying to buy a cheap showdown. He could easily have a weaker ace that he doesn't want to call a big bet with. The only hands for you to worry about are 44 and 55, I think. I'd make it around $5.5 and fold to a raise. Plan on betting the river if checked to.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
how about raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands that we beat are calling a raise?

[reemas]

weak aces, 66-KK, bluffs

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
weak aces, 66-KK, bluffs

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are hands that he might be making his turn bet with. I'm asking what actually calls if we raise. (IMO, all of those will fold and we gain nothing.)

[NeverScurred]

The stats make him out to be a station, so I think a raise gets value from AQ-AT as long as you don't make it too large, which is a big part of his range here imo. Also 66 might call with its draw. Flatting is also ok, though, if you don't think he'll call two more streets with an ace.

[losingdonkey]

I don't think you get enough calls from weaker hands by raising the turn. I'd call and let him bluff the river planning to call depending on the size of the bet.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
The stats make him out to be a station, so I think a raise gets value from AQ-AT as long as you don't make it too large, which is a big part of his range here imo. Also 66 might call with its draw. Flatting is also ok, though, if you don't think he'll call two more streets with an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's a station then it's even scarier to me that he's donking the turn, that usually means he's picked up 2pair or a straight.

[NeverScurred]

The size of the bet made me think that he was more likely to buy a cheap showdown. 18 VPIP players very rarely have a 2 in their hand here, and I doubt he ever has 2 pair. The only hands I'm worried about are 44 and 55. If you raise and he comes over the top, it becomes an easy fold.

I guess I could be wrong, though, because if he's not calling both a turn raise and river bet with his Ax hands, then a flat could be better. I see where you're coming from.

[doppelganger]

22/33/44/55 are all in his BB calling range PF, and any of the weaker aces might be if he feels OP has been making blind steals with marginal hands.

Again, we could still be ahead here, but if we raise the turn bet we're only getting called by hands that beat us and folding out the rest. There's more value in seeing the river card and letting him make another small bluff.