NL50: 3 barrels against 2+2er

[Baintz]

Villain is ShiptFMA, I have him at 15/12/1 over 40ish hands.
Don't know what my stats were, but I'd been tight. Don't know if any of my hands had gone to showdown.

A few hands before I raised 55 to $3 on the button against 2 limpers and he called in the BB w 87s.

Being 2+2, I assumed the only set he can possibly have on this flop is JJ (and even that is unlikely), and surely he raises 2 pair on such a drawy flop. So I assumed he had some sort of combo draw, or possibly ATs. Same on the turn, I'm figuring he raises a boat here (if he has it - which I doubt) as he can't rely on me to fire river.

I very rarely fire three barrels, and only do so against thinking players who I think of are capable of laying down a hand. I'm basically repping a boat or straight here.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com (http://www.leggopoker.com) - Hand History Converter (http://www.leggopoker.com/hh)

UTG: $56.85
Hero (MP): $50
CO: $24.50
BTN: $125.10
SB: $46.70
BB: $10

Pre-Flop: Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($11.75) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.50</font>, BTN calls $8.50

River: ($28.75) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22</font>

[themandude]

I think 3 barreling on this flop is bad... There are many hands that beat you and few draws.

[SSDas]

I think the 2nd barrel is ok, but i'm really not sure about the 3rd one.

What does it acheive? What better hands are you getting to fold?

If he's decent, i would imagine his calling range on the button would be AT+. Maybe he folds AT here, but i really doubt it. AJ has a full house and you're going to get raised. AQ made top two which is unlikely as he didn't raise the flop but he's still not folding it and i don't think he would call two bets with AK then fold a blank river.

Maybe he called with A8/9s and will fold, but i think it's unlikely from his stats.

So, if you're not getting many better hands to fold, and a missed draw that you beat is folding anyway, and nothing that you beat is calling, i really don't see this as a profitable play.

[ShipitFMA]

I think i play this hand bad FYI, kinda interested to see how this discussion goes

lol, reading all the leadup to the hand i feel like a tard :P

[kolotoure]

This is fine. I fold AK on the river against this line

[gregorio]

If you think he is on a combo-draw or AT, I don't like river bet. You beat a missed draw, so it is better to c/c a bluffed missed draw than lead here, and I don't think AT is folding after calling F&amp;T. He also isn't folding any J after calling F&amp;T. I don't know what calls F&amp;T that folds river that you beat.

[thoman8r]

I don't like it. I think the second barrel is ok but the 3rd is just spew. That 5 of diamonds obv. didn't help anyone and what hand does he flat two streets here that doesn't already beat you?

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he is on a combo-draw or AT, I don't like river bet. You beat a missed draw, so it is better to c/c a bluffed missed draw than lead here, and I don't think AT is folding after calling F&amp;T. He also isn't folding any J after calling F&amp;T. I don't know what calls F&amp;T that folds river that beats you.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[Baintz]

Agreed that many hands that beat me, but I think he's raising 2 pair+ on this drawy board. The previous hand has shown he's willing to call raises with suited connectors OOP, so I imagine he can call with them in position.

Also, I don't know how he'll play his draws if I check to him on the turn or river. If I check and he puts in a decnt bet, I'm in a real tough spot, and I'd prefer to be the one putting him to a decision rather than vice versa.

[ShipitFMA]

What the min you guys call the river with?

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
This is fine. I fold AK on the river against this line

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it is unusual for villain to not repop AK or not raise flop.

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed that many hands that beat me, but I think he's raising 2 pair+ on this drawy board. The previous hand has shown he's willing to call raises with suited connectors OOP, so I imagine he can call with them in position.

Also, I don't know how he'll play his draws if I check to him on the turn or river. If I check and he puts in a decnt bet, I'm in a real tough spot, and I'd prefer to be the one putting him to a decision rather than vice versa.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reason why i called the river

[Baintz]

Villain is 2+2, I'd be shocked if he called 3 streets with AT here. I think AK may fold here too, as he only really beats a bluff, or is chopping.

[thoman8r]

Difficult to answer because there's not a lot of hands I'd take this line with to begin with. I'm wavering between AQ+ or Jx+

[ShipitFMA]

I should probalby add OP was running at like 7 / 5 / ~ over 45 hands

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 2+2, I'd be shocked if he called 3 streets with AT here. I think AK may fold here too, as he only really beats a bluff, or is chopping.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking at pot/stack sizes again, I can see someone folding AT (or AK) on the river if the board weren't paired, but I think drawing with TP+GS on the turn is -EV on a paired board, where a straight will fill a lot of people up. And he can't have TP+FD.

Always nice to have both hero and villain in a thread.

[bsball8806]

J10c, J9c, maybe a loose KJc preflop, AQ, possibly AK if you didn't re raise preflop. I really can't imagine you calling down with anything else.

KK folds, AA reraises preflop and on flop, AJ raises, JQ raises, QQ raises, 10's fold. Can't really see you making this call with anything else on the river.

[bsball8806]

and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]

not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

[thoman8r]

If he had you on whiffed SCs I'd expect him to c/c the river and not lead out.

[gregorio]

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and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]

not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board.

[Baintz]

BTW, your avatar on Stars cracks me up. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[bsball8806]

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and I'd probably need a J in my hand to call three streets (and some sort of draw on the flop)

[/ QUOTE ]

not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

[/ QUOTE ]
Hard to say without knowing how you played it after the flop. Just b/c you made a loose call from the BB doesn't mean you'll peel or float 2 streets on a AQJJcc board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, this is what I was thinking. I don't think you're calling down three streets with a hand like bottom pair, just because you're making loose calls preflop with a good speculative hand like a mid-suited connector, and I expect Hero (villain?) in this situation to recognize that.

[cubase]

Grunch.

I love your thinking, but I don't like the player you chose to apply it to.

15/12/1. It's the 1 that disturbs me. He's been extremely passive over his 40ish hands.

If he calls you for two bets, he no longer holds 99 or less... he has a part of the board or is crushing. While I don't mind the second barrel, the third barrel is spew I think (against this player).

He shows up here with AT/AK a lot (his passivity tells me he's the type to just call raises with AK sometimes if not often). He also could have AJ (and he decided to slowplay and/or wait for a safe card). Once he nuts with AJ, he lets you continue to bet into him.

I think he tosses all his underpairs after the 2nd barrel, so really we aren't left with many hands that aren't sticking around.

The real question is can he fold a naked AK/AT/A9s? I just think his 1 aggression is indicative of him being a calling station (need to see his WTSD W$SD for confirmation).

Again, once he gets past the turn, I think he's calling a reasonable river bet with most of his holdings.

Two other holdings he *might* play like this are JJ/QQ. If he is really passive, he may just be a caller with those hands, and of course when he flops that huge, he may call with the intention of raising on the turn, but since he nuts on the turn with those hands, he no longer needs to get active.

I think you are way way way behind after he calls the turn. Check fold river against *this* player. Against a player who is more aggressive on the flop with made sets and two pairs and TPTK who played the hand this way, I'd expect them to be floating with underpairs or 2nd pair or worse, and would expect them to fold to the turn bet.

[Profish2285]

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not even after he's seen me call his 6x OOP with 78s ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldnt this be more of a reason for him not to bluff you as you look like a calling station? If I saw someone calling me light why would I start bluffing into them? Which I guess also goes along with why I dont like this as someone who calls down light isnt someone you should be bluffing.

[bsball8806]

results?

[finalboarder]

I don't know if he's trying to bluff someone who's calling him down light but instead he's trying to value bet with hands that would normally be bluffs. I think that's what he means.

[Profish2285]

Hes bluffing as you can see from the responses of people saying what better hands they would fold. Villain would have to be a complete idiot to justify this as a value bet.

[ShipitFMA]

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results?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had AK and stationed him, lol

I should have just 3bet pre, but i suck at doing that vs 7/5's thinking it'll put me in a tough spot but boy oh boy it'd save me money

[Baintz]

Yeah, I was surprised to see AK to be honest, but that can't have been an easy river call. I don't think I would have made it.

And to those saying ShipIt is passive, the sample size is 40 hands. That is nothing and certainly not enough to determine how he plays his big hands/draws with any certainty. Similarly, I was 7/5 over that same sample because I was completely card dead.

BTW ShipIT, did you know I was 2+2 before the hand? Just wondering if that affected your decision at all.

[ShipitFMA]

I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time. I also figured we'd be chopping a large % of the time there too, which made the call a tad easier

[Supwithbates]

Shipit PM me your AIM

[Profish2285]

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I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont understand this though. If he sees you calling light he should assume youre station-ish so why would you think that he thinks you would fold river with a top pair hand. I mean it worked out this time that he did but I dont understand the logic behind this, what is this some reverse mind game that Im missing.

[TheChad]

#$%$#%$% shipit, I didn't wanna see! plz white next time. kthx.

grunching as best as I can, I can't put him on a jack here. I like the 3-barrel against any 2+2er as they will be trying (albeit some of us are terrible at it) to put you on a hand. Our hand looks like a straight to valueville or tripping into the boat. He really can't/rather shouldn't call much of anything. However he does. &lt;.&lt; c/c river for the missed draws, or if you've seen him do it (I haven't), c/f to his naked A/AT.

Shipit, you are such a station here. AK is really drawing to a chop at best, but meh, metagame will pay off I'm sure (I have to stop #@$%#@$% reading MSNL and thinking about metagame).
my 2c

[ShipitFMA]

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I didn't know you were 2p2 and to be honest i should have and normally do fold that river. I kinda figured you'd be expecting me to fold a weaker ace or busted draw there so there was a chance i was good some % of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont understand this though. If he sees you calling light he should assume youre station-ish so why would you think that he thinks you would fold river with a top pair hand. I mean it worked out this time that he did but I dont understand the logic behind this, what is this some reverse mind game that Im missing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, I probably should have folded, I just figured that given what had happened earlier he would 3 barrel hands he'd normally shutdown with on the river along with the hands i've been taken to town with.

[Profish2285]

Im not questioning your call or fold, thats irrelevant, Im curious why you thought this way though. Like what made you think he would be more likely to push you off a hand where he saw you calling light a few hands back? Im just saying normally if someone calls light you bluff less and vb more obviously. I would think if you made some big fold or what appeared to be a big fold then he would be more likely to apply pressure, no?

[Check_The_Nuts]

Pro/shitip,

I agree with pro that the thinking of "oh he probably thinks I have a busted draw here some of the time...". WTF why would he assume you have a busted draw some of the time here? Also as far as bluffing AT off on the river, I doubt shipit is cold calling ATo, and its unlikely he's cc'ing ATs.

When I first saw the hand I assumed shipit likely had AQ. The other hand it could be is AK. The crutch to making this river bet profitable is more that he folds AK (and has it regularly). With someone who has some fishy parts to his stats (no offence) I wasn't very into the river bluff. If he called the turn with AK he probably made the assumption you were bluffing spades or whatever pretty often (or KQ, whatever). Which makes his turn call good. With all the draws bricking he will likely still think his ace is good and call.

I swear to god pro your always in line with my thinking now. Its kinda freaky.

Oh btw, if I had AK on the river I would think of myself in a tough spot. I would likely bet something like half pot as a blocker knowing you'll call AK and raise AQ. I wouldn't like checking the river for fear of you trying to valuebet AK (which is actually more of a bluff).

edit: Oh and ship you chimed in with I'm a fish and station-called here way too early. Gotta give it some time man...

[ShipitFMA]

fishy stats ? :&lt; was only 40 hands yo

[Profish2285]

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I swear to god pro your always in line with my thinking now. Its kinda freaky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that means Ive improved alot since I started posting here.

[Check_The_Nuts]

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fishy stats ? :&lt; was only 40 hands yo

[/ QUOTE ]

aggression factor of 1, cold called 87cc OOP in BB. Two things most tags don't do (altho cold calling weakish middle card hands like 87cc/J9cc is becoming more common).

I'm saying the AF of 1 is bad, and the cold calling of those suited connector type hands could be bad. The two added together would give me an impression that your not that great.

[Baintz]

The prior hand where Shipit called a 6BB raise OOP with 87s didn't really give either of us any useful info. One of the limpers called. Flop was AJ2 montone (Shipit flopped a flush), checked it, the limper bet 80% of pot into me, I had a trivially easy fold with 55, and Shipit c/r limper AI.

The only reason I included it in OP was to show sc's were in his range for the preflop call. I don't think you can read too much else from that hand given it didn't go past the flop.

I didn't c/c river because I didn't 100% have him on a draw, it was to get him to fold an AK/AT.

[ShipitFMA]

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fishy stats ? :&lt; was only 40 hands yo

[/ QUOTE ]

aggression factor of 1, cold called 87cc OOP in BB. Two things most tags don't do (altho cold calling weakish middle card hands like 87cc/J9cc is becoming more common).

I'm saying the AF of 1 is bad, and the cold calling of those suited connector type hands could be bad. The two added together would give me an impression that your not that great.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really play that TAG of a game to be honest, and I'm fairly happy to play 78s OOP vs someone whos been running at 7/5..

Either way my stats are closer to 20 / 16 / 2.25

[TheChad]

good discussion

[ShipitFMA]

[ QUOTE ]
good discussion

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, the analysis of the hand makes me feel like a tard. I hate to say it but it feels more like one of the calls that just felt right.

[Baintz]

People put way too much stock in stats over meaningless sample sizes imo. Your aggression factor was 1 over that sample, that doesn't mean I had you pegged as passive (in fact, I pretty much ignored it).
As I said before, 40 hands is nothing and I was pretty much card dead. And given I had 55 that hand, your implied odds with the 87s were terrible (unless you were planning on c/r a lot of flops if it was HU - I don't know). If I had been 7/5 over 500 hands it's a different story...

[Check_The_Nuts]

no offence, and I'm not sure who suggested the check/call line on the river but its clearly really bad. If you are that far ahead of his range that you can check/call KQ then clearly a river bluff is profitable as well.

I would think ship has a draw here like 5% of the time lol. Not even, &lt;2%.

The river blanking on draws and calling on the turn would be a reason I would want to call on the river. Reasons to fold is that the river is an easy valuebet for every big hand AQ and better. Also some would for sure valuebet AK here.

[Profish2285]

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People put way too much stock in stats over meaningless sample sizes imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is saying that stats are the end all here, but they make a difference. Im also citing the fact about that 87 hand. You may say that its not a big deal then why include it in your op? I believe it is a big deal as its your first impression of villain and it should make you believe villain is a looser player.

[Check_The_Nuts]

or at least a fishier TAG. Both of those things together suggests to me he's a fishier tag.

My wording is weak on purpose. I don't know for sure if he's good or not, neither do I really care. But suspecting he may be bad makes me not want to make a bluff that depends on him folding AK (even on the scariest of boards).

[Baintz]

I included it to show that villain may be a loose preflop player. I don't then automatically assume that he is going to be loose post. In fact, the reason I even fired 2 let alone 3 barrels here was that I knew he was 2+2, and not some random NL50 donk who would call me down with A2.

Apologies if I'm coming across as all defensive. That's not my intention. Obviously I was unsure whether this was a good play, and hence why I posted, and I'm glad of the discussion it's generated.

I like hands like this that require a bit of deeper thinking because:

a) It's a nice deviation from the standard ABC poker we mostly play against the fish at these levels
b) It's the sort of thinking you'll have to be using more and more when you move up limits due to the stronger opposition

I just wish he'd 3bet me preflop.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[gumpzilla]

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no offence, and I'm not sure who suggested the check/call line on the river but its clearly really bad. If you are that far ahead of his range that you can check/call KQ then clearly a river bluff is profitable as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure? That can only be true if he's calling with a lot of worse hands that he'd be betting with, which is highly unlikely to be the case. Betting in that case would fold crappy hands and still cost you money to some of the better hands, including ones that beat you that might check behind.

[Check_The_Nuts]

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no offence, and I'm not sure who suggested the check/call line on the river but its clearly really bad. If you are that far ahead of his range that you can check/call KQ then clearly a river bluff is profitable as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure? That can only be true if he's calling with a lot of worse hands that he'd be betting with, which is highly unlikely to be the case. Betting in that case would fold crappy hands and still cost you money to some of the better hands, including ones that beat you that might check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

guy is likely to bet AK cause he looks like a busted draw and figures you'll call. So he's betting a lot of hands that beat you. Altho its unlikely for him to bet AT (he's more likely to call with that hand however).

Anyways my thinking in that theoretical case, is that he would have to show up with busted draws really often for you to be good &gt;30% of the time on the river. If he has busted draws that often you can bet/bluff profitably as well because he's got air too often.

Do it in stove. If you assume he folds AK on the river he's going to fold 40% of the time, and you only need him to fold more than 33% for it to be profitable. Obv. if you add busted draws in this bet is even better.

Hopefully my math is right. Correct me if I'm wrong (obv. rounding his river bet to a PSB).

[orange]

lets break the hand down a bit-

pf, your range is fairly wide, given your read of him, his range is somewhat narrow. his pt #s would lean more towards pp, some scs, AJ and the like. i think that he rr-es JJ+/AQ+ most times. still, ranges are undefined.

flop- your range is still very wide, you are betting this flop with whatever you raised pf with (whether that is good or not, is debatable). after he calls the flop we can narrow his range a little lower. we can take most all pps out (sometimes JJ will be there). KTs/KTo probably folds pf given your read/pf numbers. clubs and such are very possible (maybe T9cc).

on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

turn- your range is a bit more narrow now too. this isn't the best board to double barrel on, the J changed little. i suppose that QJ/AJ/AA/QQ etc and all other premiums are still betting. i would put your range more weighted towards strong hands like AK/AQ/etc- still fairly strong. i suppose double barreling with KQ on this board is okay, its a semi bluff essentially and you SHOULD have some FE vs. some better hands. checking is obviously an option as well (probably folding to a bet).

his range on the turn? again, we can narrow it a bit further. i think that the draws he potentially could have would dump the turn due to reverse implied odds. its possible he's still continuing with T9cc or something like that but somewhat unlikely. Further, i think he's dumping his combos like QT/etc. also, his marginal hands like Ax are also dropping. Though he could think that he's now chopping (sortve dumb to keep calling to chop but meh).

his range on the turn i would most likely put him on stuff like Jx (whatever combos there could be, be it JT or something), two pair like AQ/AK, and some draws. in summary, i think that villan is pretty strong here.

the river, your line is super super strong. turning 2nd pair into a bluff against this opponent is something that is sortve meh imo. when nits clash, things get messy :P. i would put your range on a boat/straight/Jx/etc. i think you would typically check the river with AK and sometimes AQ.

villan should be folding most of his draws and most of his one pair hands like AK. i dont think that you're going to push him off a J.

in summary, this hand is sortve meh since both of your ranges are supposedly somewhat defined and i think that villan is pretty strong. i dont think he's folding and getting people to fold stronger hands is very good in general. meh.

[TheChad]

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good discussion

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, the analysis of the hand makes me feel like a tard. I hate to say it but it feels more like one of the calls that just felt right.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's just as much of poker as the odds to hit a flush draw.

edit: though this probably should have been noted

[ama0330]

I think this is gross, if villain has an ace he is going to be discouting all your ace hands like AQ, AJ because two of the aces are out. Therefore you can only really have KT, QQ, 55 or some JT hand which decided to turn itself into a bluff on the flop and if I am shipitFMA I think its a pretty standard river call, especially 2p2 on 2p2. In reality this is KT, QQ or nothing, I think its a pretty bad bluff.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this, I analyse this hand exactly backwards to how you have done, I think he floats all his strong/mid strength hands like AK, two pair, mid pairs etc and raises all the weaker hands like pair+fd, T9, JT etc as well as monsters like made straights and sets. I think raising AK on this board would be pretty bad

[Burcak]

I really don't see the villain folding more than half of the time at best. The 3rd barrel is -ev imho.

I think AK was a hand you should be surprised to see, and it should have played differently, and could fold river. But in this situation, even AK called. I don't think you are folding out ANY hand that beats you, in the end. And you need to get him to fold like 70% of the time.

[thursday]

As gross as it sounds, I would usually just shove a hand that I know is best here (see: boat), so i think I would do the same with KQ if I'm going to turn my hand into a bluff here like you did.

It may not be right for YOU in this situation, but it's just my take on how i'd handle this river.

[orange]

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on the flop, i think that most of his strong hands he's raising. but there is a small number of strong hands in his range here- as stated previously, AA/QQ both rr pf. AQ+ probably rr-es pf (though both could definitely be present and probably are in this hand). that leaves AJ and perhaps other lower aces (sometimes a suited ace or two). so i think that on the flop, villan has either a draw (sc/clubs/sometimes T9 or something dumb like that that is floating), a marginal hand like Ax and sometimes a pair+FD like KQ/JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree with this, I analyse this hand exactly backwards to how you have done, I think he floats all his strong/mid strength hands like AK, two pair, mid pairs etc and raises all the weaker hands like pair+fd, T9, JT etc as well as monsters like made straights and sets. I think raising AK on this board would be pretty bad

[/ QUOTE ]
it doesnt make any sense to float with strong hands on such a board. why would you flat with QA/JJ/KT/etc? doesnt make any sense.

[Check_The_Nuts]

flat to get another bet out of AK if your AQ/AJ.