25NL - Royal Draw Facing c/r on flop from nit

[tercet]

Villian was 13/9 over 100 hands..

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Poker Stars (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-PokerStars.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($54.05)
Hero ($25.25)
SB ($54.85)
BB ($25.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, SB calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $4</font>, Hero ???

[kerk]

i shove this all day. you have sooo many outs to the nuts. i know he is not folding but im sure if you stove this you are correct in shoving. He probably has AJ or 88 here

[winnnar]

Nice hand. Besides flopping the ultimate nuts, this flop is about as good as it gets for your hand.

Shove, you have tremendous FE, but if I were you I would beg to get called.

[Hebel]

you have a monster hand with equity against even the tightest of ranges. get it in. also, make sure to get there.

[Lego05]

I think I'd just call. A villian with those stats I'm thinking most of the time the worst hand he has here is AQ and he is rarely rarely ever folding.


Ahh....what do I know. Even against that tight a range shoving 12 outs here is fairly clear (add-in any FE and it's pretty +ev):


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

32,670 games 0.031 secs 1,053,870 games/sec

Board: 8s Ac Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.371% 51.13% 00.24% 16703 80.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 48.629% 48.38% 00.24% 15807 80.00 { 8c8d, 8c8h, 8d8h, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AdQh, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AsQh, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh }

[TheSalche]

The value of your hand is greatest on the flop. If you hit on the turn/river and you aren't AI then you may not get paid. Fold equity is a big factor here too. Re-raise it up.

[yeotaJMU]

shoving is a pretty large bet... dont we want villain to call?

[Carre]

shove this one

[hendal]

[ QUOTE ]
shoving is a pretty large bet... dont we want villain to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you want him to fold. That is why an allin move makes this a +EV move. In case villain decides to make the call we still have outs to win the hand but we still have to get there.
At least this is what i think. Maybe a reg. can confirm my idea?