Top set 3b pot 200 bb deep

[Profish2285]

Turn was gross but I thought there was value to betting here and I couldnt think of many if any fives in villains range. He seemed fairly competent and was opening alot in lp. He runs at 17/15/2.3.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt (http://www.flopturnriver.com/reviews/Online-Poker-FullTilt.php#converter) Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($17.70)
BB ($19.15)
UTG ($72.25)
MP ($66.35)
<font color="#C00000">CO ($95.25)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($102.85)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($4.75) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9.5</font>, CO calls $7.

Turn: ($23.75) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $47</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero....

[ICMoney]

Pretty sick spot.

We would be getting 2.9:1 on our push if he calls every time - so we need around 27% equity when called.

We have 38% equity against 77-55,T9s,T9o.

I think I just stick it in.

[deleteduser]

Golden, I push everday twice on Sundays. The only hand that beats you that I see raising here pf is 55. In which case you still have many outs.

[Profish2285]

I really dont see him calling this flop with 55 but I suppose its possible. At best I would give him 2 combos of it. He didnt seem like an idiot and that would be a dumb call to make with the idiot end of an oesd and oop getting poor odds and on a 3 flush board.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
Golden, I push everday twice on Sundays. The only hand that beats you that I see raising here pf is 55. In which case you still have many outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 17/15 who's opening a lot of pots in LP will do that with some SC's that include fives too, but that also means he'll be holding 2 pair a lot as well.

I think it's a push, followed by berating his flop play when we don't fill up and he shows 5c6c.

[Profish2285]

5c6c is one of the very few realistic 5's he could have here imo. Im just saying about the whole 5 thing so that people dont suggest checking behind because I thought that was weak sauce at the time and still do.

[Speedlimits]

betting turn is good.... just because he c/red you this time doesn't mean sh.it.

call his small raise too.

[gregorio]

[ QUOTE ]
Golden, I push everday twice on Sundays. The only hand that beats you that I see raising here pf is 55. In which case you still have many outs.

[/ QUOTE ]
also A5cc and T9

He should know draws are a bigger part of your range than sets and could put you on an semi-bluff, but there are a lot of made hands you can have by now that he should be scared of. of course he could be semi-bluffing himself, but then sticking in on the flop makes more sense for him.

For 100BB I get it in. For 200bb, I don't know except yank plug from wall if you have disconnect protect.

[Profish2285]

You dont think just shoving here is optimal? There are a decent number of rivers that can kill our action or our hand.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
betting turn is good.... just because he c/red you this time doesn't mean sh.it.

call his small raise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait...what? If we call his raise then we've got a $129 pot with $30 left behind. We're certainly not folding the river under any circumstances, so why not get it all in when there are still draws in his range?

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
Wait...what? If we call his raise then we've got a $129 pot with $30 left behind. We're certainly not folding the river under any circumstances, so why not get it all in when there are still draws in his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my exact thinking of why shoving is best.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
You dont think just shoving here is optimal? There are a decent number of rivers that can kill our action or our hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but when he c.rs turn his range is heavily weighted towards a 5x/straight. most 17/15s dont semi-bluff deep stacked.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
betting turn is good.... just because he c/red you this time doesn't mean sh.it.

call his small raise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait...what? If we call his raise then we've got a $129 pot with $30 left behind. We're certainly not folding the river under any circumstances, so why not get it all in when there are still draws in his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but ur assuming he shoves every river which is not the case. and yeah draws are in his range but a straight is more likely.

[Profish2285]

I assume he is shoving river as well because using your logic of a 17/15 not getting crazy here, I also dont see a 17/15 putting in 70% of his stack to fold on the river getting amazing odds on a shove.

[ICMoney]

I said shove before and I'm happy with that.

I'm wondering what you guys do with:

66
77

Could we shove 77 and fold 66 or is 66=77 here?

I don't think 88=77 in this situation.

[Profish2285]

I was thinking the same. I think I can throw away 66 but not 77 here. 77 still is ahead of 66. 66 is only ahead of two pair.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
betting turn is good.... just because he c/red you this time doesn't mean sh.it.

call his small raise too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait...what? If we call his raise then we've got a $129 pot with $30 left behind. We're certainly not folding the river under any circumstances, so why not get it all in when there are still draws in his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah but ur assuming he shoves every river which is not the case. and yeah draws are in his range but a straight is more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he probably shoves most rivers unless he's afraid of a club and checks his straight through. I suppose it doesn't matter much if we flat call the turn as long as we're calling 100% of rivers UI and pushing if we fill up.

If no club falls, it's all going in regardless. If he checks a straight when a club falls, we save $30. If we improve then he's still calling with almost all of his turn raising range. I suppose on balance it might save us a few bets when we're behind so maybe a call is reasonable. In the heat of the moment though, I probably just push and be done with it.

[Speedlimits]

this hand is actually really close on the river. if river blanks and villain shoves. he will have a straight like 80-90% of the time.

i would still call because we only have to be right like ~15% of the time but if we were 150BB deep i would fold.

when i say fold i mean fold to a river shove not turn.

[Profish2285]

[ QUOTE ]
i would still call because we only have to be right like ~15% of the time but if we were 150BB deep i would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense, you should want to fold this if we get deeper not more shallow.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
That makes no sense, you should want to fold this if we get deeper not more shallow.

[/ QUOTE ]

we are getting implied odds to fill up.

[Profish2285]

Okay but this is also assuming villain has a straight 100% of the time. If I knew that then this becomes a whole lot easier.

[thursday]

[ QUOTE ]
Golden, I push everday twice on Sundays. The only hand that beats you that I see raising here pf is 55. In which case you still have many outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you (or does anyone) care to explain the advantages of pushing this turn over calling turn, calling river (or shoving if you fill up)?

[Profish2285]

Because I have a massive amount of my stack in already and Im not folding to any river no matter what. So I might as well shove the turn into him as its possible he has a draw (maybe) and if he has a set or two pair, if the board gets even worse hes not calling the river, even though he probably should be.